What realistic moves would you like the Pistons to pursue?

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by Mark V, Nov 19, 2013.

  1. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    Smith is playing our of position, he's taking more shots away from the rim because he's playing SF. At his more natural position the amount of perimeter bricks would decrease.
  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I like all three at pf and c. The solution gives us perfect all around coverage there. No need for a bench there unless there is an injury or blowout.
  3. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I wouldn't say it never works. It has worked against Ben. It has worked against Dwight Howard. It worked against Dennis Rodman. It even worked against Shaq to win a playoff series:

    Coach Gregg Popovich of the San Antonio Spurs used the Hack-a-Shaq strategy successfully in Game 5 of the Spurs' 2008 first round series against O'Neal and the Phoenix Suns. ESPN.com reported, "Spurs coach Gregg Popovich had his players intentionally foul O'Neal, a 52 percent career free-throw shooter, throughout the game. He finished 9-of-20 from the line, dropping the Suns to 20-of-37 total on free throws." The Suns were eliminated from the playoffs in a 92–87 Spurs win.
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  4. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    That looks highly correlative, not causative.
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  5. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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    Intentionally fouling won't win you games 100% of the time. But it can help you win.

    It is about additional possessions in the time remaining and attempting to increase the expected production of a possession relative to your opponent.

    In very simple terms, if you intentionally hack a 50% FT shooter then the expected value of their possession becomes 1. If on the other end you are getting a 40% 3pt shooter to shoot, excluding any chance of an offensive rebound etc, then the value of that possesion is 1.2.
  6. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    It would be correlative if he shot his season average of 5 free throws that game. The fact that they were hack-a-shacking and he shot 20 free throws (15 more than his average) makes it an effective strategy that helped the Spurs win the game and the series.
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  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    The more possessions, the higher the chance of a comeback. When teams employ the strategy, their expected win chances are only 5 percent at best. If hack-a-blank wins one in 20 games, it's working. Often coaches pull the shaq like player and kill the strategy.
  8. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I still don't think this makes the case for causality. How many times does Shaq get hacked? How many times does it lead to a loss?

    TaS says 5%. That's low. I would guess that more teams comeback than 5% without hack a whoever.

    Plus, I am with the Low. You don't take a Shaq (admittedly in PHX past his prime) or Dre off the floor.
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2013
  9. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    How did you come up with 5%?
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I guessed based on expected win percentage calculations that I saw in baseball and backgammon. The general pattern that I noticed is that when the end of a game approaches, a small advantage becomes incredibly large. A 10 point lead in bball with 2 minutes left has to be more than 95 percent odds to win for example.

    It would be interesting to see the stats on hacking, but not sure they've been tracked.
  11. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    Wouldn't the Spurs have won that series without the Hack-a-Shaq?
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  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Think about end game tactics. They even try hack a chauncey at a certain point when they are desperate to create extra possessions. Even if the math says it will most likely cause then to lose by more, it increases overall variance. With a guy shooting below 50 percent from the line, it increases variance without reallycausing a per possession negative differential.
  13. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    If the FT shooter is at 40% (Ben Wallace), then you are only scoring 0.88 points per possession. That is less than a normal possession.
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm factoring in that a normal possession against a set defense is less than overall average (with fast breaks, etc). And by negative differential, I meant for the team doing the fouling.
  15. raxrets

    raxrets Team Captain

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    do not forget - by endgame fouling - you give away potential free points but you still have to score . And thats much harder than even for Dre at the charity stripe.
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  16. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    The proof is in the pudding. We've seen teams pull this against DET in 2 of the last 3 games and neither of them were able to mount even a passable comeback using it. Teams that do this just don't manage successful comeback victories with it. The benefits of the strategy are purely theoretical.
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Then why did mo pull dre the first time? If he pulls our best player, the strategy was deemed effective by our coach.
  18. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    Hence the problem. Irrational fear.
  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Seems rational to me. I was nervous watching it and felt better after he was yanked. I hope teams don't start fouling him when we're down.
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    At what ft percentage would you conclude that it's a good strategy?

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