1. Football Picks Survivor is done for 2014. Congrats to billlaimbeer from The Pistons Forum

Trade Talk

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by max, Feb 29, 2012.

  1. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2008
    Messages:
    1,249
    Likes Received:
    964
    The big thing we need to see from Knight is that he keeps improving. In February he has a 2.14/1 assist to turnover ratio, which is significantly better than where he was early in the year. In addition, comparing February to January+December, his FG%, 3-pt%, eFG%, TS%, assists, and ppg are up, while turnovers and fouls are down. To be fair, the competition wasn't as good, but those kind of increases (in one month!) are the kinds we want to see.

    I agree with what others have said - at least give him an off-season to gel with his teammates and a decent outside shooter to actually pass to, then evaluate him. Until then, just watch and recognize that he's young and he's going to be inconsistent.
     
  2. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    4,906
    Likes Received:
    869
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Saginaw, Michigan
    Do you guys realize that Rondo is one of the best PG's in league? While I'm well aware that he can't shoot, I'm also aware of the fact that he still seems to score in the half court even though he can't shoot. My biggest knock on BK is that he has a weak and very loose handle, that was the knock coming in to UK and into the NBA, he has a high dribble that gets away from his body quite easily. If you swap Rondo for Knight (straight-up) I guarantee you that BG, Prince and even CV become much better players and Rondo would spoon feed GM so many dimes that he'd be obese by seasons end. DO THE DEAL, you can't bypass "what might be" for "what IS".
     
    Mogilny and linwood like this.
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,855
    Likes Received:
    3,267
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    But it's not even close to a straight up trade, right?

    Rondo makes $10M, $11M, $12M, and $13M before his contract is up after the 2015 season.

    Knight makes $2.6M, $2.8M, $2.9M, $3.7M, and $5.0M (qualifying offer) through the end of 2016.

    BK seems like a pretty good gamble because he's already outplaying his contract and if he shows significant improvement, then he'll be blowing it away.
     
  4. linwood

    linwood All-Star

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2005
    Messages:
    4,479
    Likes Received:
    1,521
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    I would definitely trade BK for Rondo right now. I agree that Rondo is a top PG... Maybe even top 3.
    I'm not sure that I would trade BK AND our first round pick though. That seems pretty expensive for what may turn out to be a two year rental.
     
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,855
    Likes Received:
    3,267
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    The rest of the trade would be Gordon for Allen and the pick switcharoo:

    Ray Allen is an $11M expiring
    Ben Gordon is $11.6M, $12.4M, and $13.2M through 2014.

    That makes it a little more interesting. We'd have Rondo at or just below market value and we'd be able to erase one of Joe's major blunders... I'm starting to see the light.


    With the pick, we'd be dropping 8-9 positions if the current standings held. So, let's give it a range of 7-10 spots to account for the variance. What is the value of a 4th pick vs. a 14th pick?

    I'm going to link to some 82games studies that were done on the subject (the 2nd one is much more thorough).
    http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
    http://82games.com/barzilai1.htm

    For a 4th pick, we can expect the following:
    30.5 mpg
    13.7 pts
    5.5 reb
    3.1 ast
    22.2 rating
    60% are stars
    30% are solid
    10% are role players
    0 % are deep bench, bust, or DNPs

    For a 14th pick:
    21.1 mpg
    8.8 pts
    3.0 rebs
    1.9 ast
    13.7 rating
    25% are stars
    20% are solid
    25% are role players
    10% are deep bench
    20% are busts
    0% are DNP

    This chart is cool though:
    [​IMG]

    It's basically saying that a 4th pick costs about $5M per year and the average 4th pick outperforms his contract a bit. A 14th pick costs about $3M per year and under performs slightly. After reviewing a separate chart with relative values, it could also be expressed as a player picked 4th tends to be almost twice as good as a player picked 14th (in terms of PER).

    Overall though, the rookie contract scale (as of the time of the article) was fitted somewhat to the expected performance for each position.... which the glaring exception of the top 4 picks, which tended to outperform their contracts. The closer you get to a #1 pick, the more you can expect a bang for your buck. So, it truly is like winning the lottery to get your ping pong combo drawn.

    Overall, I'm actually leaning toward doing the trade after working through it all. In order to pull it off in the long run, Joe would have to become an expert spender of FA money to fill the Ben Gordon void. I'm afraid of what he might do if he has that much $ to spend though.


    Once we made this trade, we could immediately stop tanking because our record doesn't matter to us and we could screw Boston by going on a winning streak with Rondo. Similarly, Boston would probably get worse in the short term and the 14th pick might turn into the 10th pick for us by the time it's all over with... especially if Boston had follow on trades that nuked their core. So, in this respect, the sooner we pull off the trade, the more value it has.

    One reason why Joe might not do it though: Boston could possibly win the lottery with our inherited pick and he would look like a fool in hindsight. Expressed differently, we'd be throwing away any chance of winning the lottery. As it currently stands, we have somewhere close to a 15-20% chance of winning it according to Hollinger's machine.
     
    BallDon'tLie and Mogilny like this.
  6. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2005
    Messages:
    16,228
    Likes Received:
    4,178
    Location:
    Michigan
    The way to erase the Ben Gordon contract is to simply amnesty him in the offseason.
     
    basketbills, S.J. and alexa032 like this.
  7. round

    round All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2007
    Messages:
    2,752
    Likes Received:
    429
    Location:
    Michigan/Glasgow
    and then what do we do with CV?
     
  8. alexa032

    alexa032 Team Captain

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2007
    Messages:
    785
    Likes Received:
    262
    CV's contract is smaller and he's a stretch 4, which is more valuable than an undersized SG. He kinda sucks, but he may be a little bit more tradable than BG, especially if he goes on a bit of a hot streak. Plus, he's apparently lost some weight, down t0 235 (or so he says), lowest since his second year in the league.
     
  9. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,855
    Likes Received:
    3,267
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    Was watching some time filler on league pass with Magic and Brouchard(sp?) talking. The points that they raised about Rondo were:

    1) He has had all of his success with 3 hall of famers on the court with him; and
    2) He has been a pain in the butt in a winning environment- so the fear is he'll be intolerable in a rebuilding situation

    They think that Boston is feeling a chill from the market due to these questions.

    I was watching him tonight and he made some really difficult passes look routine. 13 assists to 2 turnovers + 5 steals. Pretty nasty.


    Even with Knight's solid outside stroke, his overall shooting isn't really any better than Rondo's.

    Ply: eFG, TS%
    RR: .477, .509
    BK: .479, .513

    Virtually identical with 3's included and then again with 3's and FT's included.

    CP3: .544, .593 (next level @#$%)
     
  10. S.J.

    S.J. All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2009
    Messages:
    1,114
    Likes Received:
    373
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Argentina
    I'm on keeping BK.
    If what they say about Rondo is true, we don't need a man who can't be tamed..

    __________________

    In other news

    Sacramento is shopping J.J. Hickson real hard (at least that is what ESPN said)

    What do you think? What would you give up for him?
    Yes, he is having an awful, really awful season.. But the man is a nice defender (not "impressive" but fair enough to block some shots) And he can jump and rebound too.
    He is doing really bad in a team where there are a lot of big men.. Chuck Hayes, Cousins, Thompson..
    The thing is Hickson only have this year in his contract and is about 2.3 Millons. We can't deal Ben Gordon or CV for him (I don't see how with the ESPN trade machine)

    But, we can give them Daye + a 2nd rounder or .. Bynum and a 2nd (who I assume they would not want with Freddete, Thomas, Evans in their roster)

    What do you think? .. I wouldn't mind.. And Hickson is young!
     
  11. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2010
    Messages:
    3,079
    Likes Received:
    1,323
    I'd give up BK and our 1st for Rondo. BK and Gordon for Rondo and Allen sounds to good to be true. GM at the C and Rondo at the PG is a pretty awesome foundation to build around, maybe the best PG-C combo in the league until Dwight moves to Brooklyn. If we would get to keep our pick (or switch with Boston) and get rid of a monster contract... Switching picks would also add the nice benefit of being able to root for the Pistons to win again.
     
    linwood likes this.
  12. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2010
    Messages:
    3,079
    Likes Received:
    1,323
    He's used to be one of the worst defenders in the league imo, right up there with David Lee and those guys. I have hardly seen him since he moved to the Warriors but I doubt he's improved enough to be called "a nice defender".
     
  13. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2006
    Messages:
    6,695
    Likes Received:
    1,657
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Parts Unknown
    When can we start making fun of Joe for not making this fabricated trade?

    When Alexa calls Chucky V a "stretch 4" does she mean that it is a stretch to say he plays PF?

    KGREG is spot on, you'd have to make this trade if it were real. Expecting any of Knights flaws (whatever they may be) to go away once he stops "being young" is dangerous. He will have some improvement, but I too would rather have the is.
     
  14. max

    max All-Star

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2005
    Messages:
    7,482
    Likes Received:
    496
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    my bunker in the Carribbean
    Wish I was seeing what everyone else is in BK. I will try to be more patient and give him time to develop but its so obvious that the point is the main reason why we are so bad. Even the backups are not producing. We had that little run when Walker D was getting mins but the guy is practically no threat at all to shoot the ball.

    Have to fix this soon or get BK going because I don't know who will want to sign onto a club with such a poorly ran offense. How many times have we seen Moose wide open only to be wasted by an errand shot by Tay or someone. Our offense more resembles a beer pickup game at times.
     
  15. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    4,906
    Likes Received:
    869
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Saginaw, Michigan
    With Rondo I'd actually keep Ben Gordon. We often ask, "Where's Chicago Ben Gordon?" Well Kirk Hinrich is a better PG than any other PG that has been here since BG's arrival.......................Derrick Rose????? Goes without saying. So if there was a way to swap Rondo for BK7 (and fillers, i.e Bynum and Daye), and not involve draft picks, DO IT! Rondo would immediately make BG, CV, JJ and Greg Monroe better. My only concern is floor spacing when he's on the court with Stuckey.

    PG: Rondo / Stuckey
    SG: Gordon / Gordon
    SF: Tay / JJ
    PF: CV / JJ
    C: GM / Max

    That team would SCORE!

    Also please keep in mind that Joe's primary reason for NOT drafting Melo was Tay, for not drafting Wade was Rip............... see where I'm going.
     
  16. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2005
    Messages:
    16,228
    Likes Received:
    4,178
    Location:
    Michigan
    You're still in the lottery, so what is the point?
     
  17. S.J.

    S.J. All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2009
    Messages:
    1,114
    Likes Received:
    373
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Argentina
    That team would not defend and would not hustle neither.
    (OF course, it's not like we are defending well right now with BK and Stuckey.. but Rondo, Gordon, CV, and Old Tay and Monroe.. the only good defender there is Rondo.

    Everyone is saying "What if Brandon Knight reach his ceiling quickly and doesn't improve as we wish.

    But What if Rondo is cancer that can be in a rebuilding team? .. What if a great coach like Doc Rivers and being surrounded by Allen, Pierce and Garnett makes Brandon Knight an impresive PG.?
    What If what makes so great about Rondo is the fact that he was playing with 3 Hall of famers and a bunch of veterans who knew what they were doing.

    Then What?
    Will we blame Joe D for that too?
     
  18. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2010
    Messages:
    3,079
    Likes Received:
    1,323
    What if the rings of Saturn are made of beer?
     
  19. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2006
    Messages:
    6,695
    Likes Received:
    1,657
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Parts Unknown
    Rondo's assent to a top point guard happened after KG hurt his knee and has never been the same.

    I too think Gordon would flourish with him here. Rondo and Stuckey would be a bad match.
     
  20. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2010
    Messages:
    3,079
    Likes Received:
    1,323
    Gordon might put up 20+ PPG but he would still suck.
     

Share This Page