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Discussion in 'Football, Baseball, and Hockey' started by TaS, Nov 9, 2012.
I know why the AL is -15% in the 9th. Tigs bringing it down.
A bad outting by Verlander pushes Scherzer ahead in the best tiger pitcher debate. Once again big bats fail to deliver in the late innings. Miggy gets hits in each of his first two bats and then leaves runners on base on his last two at bats, including grounding into a DP to end the game. Fielder pops out with two batters on base in the 7th inning.
Tigers big 3 are big BLAH AFTER the 7th inning!
I know you're semi joking. But just want to make sure you read their description of 9th innings. The bottom of the 9th is only played about half the time, so there is a huge skew in the data. The guy that put this together added all extra inning scoring into the 9th for that chart. Another skewing factor that they don't mention is that when a home team is behind and goes into the bottom of the 9th, the game just stops when they take the lead. If that wasn't the case, they may score many more runs if the game wasn't cut short. 9th innings are too weird to compare to the other innings.
Everything being equal, I wasn't joking. Didn't we just see Tigs suckage in ALL late innings ?!
You lost TFD at "I know."
I don't see anything more to it.
Bottom line this team despite 39 wins, has a hard time coming from behind in the late innings and the big guys come up short when it counts in the 8th, 9th and extra innings. Wonder how many RBI does Miggy and Cecil Jr have in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings? TaS you're on
I could give you breakdown by inning, but it isn't very useful since Cabrera always bats in the first inning, rarely bats in the second, usually bats in the 3rd inning, etc. If you break it down by 3-inning groups, both Cabrera and Fielder have appeared about the same number of times in each group: Innings 1-3: Cabrera 30 RBI, Fielder 21 RBI Innings 4-6: Cabrera 29 RBI, Fielder 25 RBI Innings 7-9: Cabrera 12 RBI, Fielder 8 RBI 7th/8th/9th inning breakdown: Cabrera 6/5/1 Fielder 5/2/1 Your hunch was definitely correct.
Miggy & Fielder no RBI in extra innings... not that they have had that many at bats in the extra frames... what are we 1-3 in OT
I think it's flukey. Miggy batted about .325 last year in late innings in 172 at bats in 7-9. This year, he's only had 70 at bats in those innings and he's hitting just as good as last year overall (so worse in 7-9, but better in 1-6). We know he's clutch. It's not fatigue. Take a look at the "leverage" stats for instance. In high leverage at bats, he's hitting .354 this year. In medium, .409. In low, .326. So it's not like he doesn't get it done in important at bats. He's actually worse when there isn't at much at stake. He's the best hitter in baseball in almost every situation and there isn't a manager in baseball that wouldn't like to sub him in to hit for their team in their 9th inning's most critical at bat even if they studied his BA in innings 7-9 this year. And Fielder: high leverage- .311 medium- .284 low- .292 He also excels in high leverage situations. The reasons that they both hit best when needed is probably because with men on base, opposing pitchers can't pick at the corners as much. But still, the nature of the game is that even for a stud like Cabrera, he fails 2.5 times for every time he comes through. It's tough to be level headed because those situations seem so magnified.
You can call him clutch, but this season I think he tries to hard in the late innings when the game is on the line and hits better when there is nothing on the line in the beginning and is more relaxed. If think if the Tigers had another power hitter that they could count on to hit the long ball, there wouldn't be so much pressure on him and Fielder to produce in the clutch when everyone expects an RBI extra base hit out of them. Supposed power hitters, VMart , Dirks and Avila have only 5 dingers each as we approach the halfway break? Two of them will need to pick it up down the stretch if they expect to go far in the playoffs (read: win World Series)
Here are some pressure situations: With 2 outs, he's batting .350 with runners in scoring position- .481 with 2 outs AND runners in scoring position- .533! with 1.715 OPS (ludicrous) tie games- .417 games that are within 1 run- .392 He's Babe Ruth level. He has no virtually no weakness on offense except for speed. we only have the breakout for innings 7-9 in total. We don't have the breakout for innings 7-9 with high leverage (close game, guys on, etc). But even if it is statistically true, it is a 70 at bat sample and he hasn't shown that pattern in previous years when he's had a similar or worse level of protection around him. I find it doubtful that he's that clutch in the past and in all other leverage situations this year, but he has a mental weakness that overtakes him in innings 7-9... while we're sitting in 1st place. It's just baseball. Weird statistical aberrations occur, great hitters slump sometimes, average hitters go on rolls (Peralta), and pitchers without the best ERA's can start a season 10-0. Coming off the triple crown, Cabrera has improved in all three categories. He's hitting .358 vs .330 last year. He's on pace for 169 RBI's vs 139 last year. And he's on pace for 45 HR's vs 44 last year. Babe Ruth played for the Red Sox and Yankees (tons of guys on base and protection) and only exceeded 169 RBI's once in 21 seasons with 172. That's the level of activity we are witnessing.
I hate hearing about the 'he aint clutch' rubbish. Too often people are expected to get better in pressure situation to even be considered not 'not clutch'. Its ridiculous. Cabrera is a monster. Even if he isn't clutch, he still comes up big all the others times. Hitting a game tying run in the 11th isn't so impressive to me if you could have put it away the other 5 at bats you had with runners on 3rd, but instead you just struck out.
yall can look at stats all you want...BUT if a hitter is 1 for 3 in extra inning game winning situations, thats a .333 batting average BUT YOUR TEAM WENT 1-2! What mateers is what happens WHEN it happened!
This is, of course, the pre-tax amount. Verlander's take-home pay is probably more like $54,000 per inning.
I think it's less than that.
So the problem aint Miggy. Good info there guys.
Bottom line...we need just need clutch hitting and pitching in the last three innings and not only do they finish with 90 wins, but another AL championship and the first WS title since I met Mrs. Dre...
One thing to think about is even if we all agree that the team has had trouble batting in late game situations, is it a fundamental problem or just a statistical happening? In other words, should a change be made or should we roll with the existing strategy with the expectation that averages will bear out over time. If the universe were fair, we'd probably be hitting worse in innings 1-6 and we'd have less high leverage situations in innings 7-9 to even worry about... but in those, the team would perform better. Not sure if we'd be better or worse under that scenario (where we hit to the team average evenly throughout the game). With the hitting, I would obviously recommend that we continue to roll with guys like Miggy and Fielder, despite their late game struggles (as would all managers in baseball and 99% of fans). Any tweaks that I'd consider would be tweaks that would apply to the entire game in general (maybe replace Dirks with Garcia, etc). I can't really think of anything that I'd recommend we specifically change each game after the 6th inning. However, in the relief pitching department, I'm extremely worried about Vaverde, despite his great statistical start to the season. His ERA is just indicative of an average pitcher at this point and is trending toward a sub-par pitcher. When you combine that data with his miserable performances last post season and the fact that no other teams bothered to sign him at any price, you have a real problem. As much as I respect Leyland, he is admittedly a very stubborn man and clings to the old school practice of wanting a defined every day closer. In this case, we have a shaky one, and Leyland seems to be of the belief that he can make him better by boosting his confidence and sticking with him. That same stubbornness could be great in a case like VMart if he ends up getting back to his historic form. In that case, since he was off a full year, I can buy into the theory that he needs consistent reps over a long period of time to get his timing and confidence back, even if it means that the team suffers while he performs in a below average manner. The payoff would come in the playoffs. We are a team like the '06 Pistons in that we should be willing to sacrifice regular season W's to increase post season success (although Flip did not pursue such a strategy).
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