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Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by pass99, Mar 29, 2017.

  1. pass99

    pass99 All-Star Forum Donor

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  2. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    In a broad sense, Detroit has been light years better this season with Drummond off the court. According to NBA.com, the team has outscored opponents by 6.1 points per 48 minutes in the 1,329 minutes Drummond has been off the floor but been trashed by 5.0 per 48 in the 2,147 minutes he’s played. Now with raw plus/minus data, there are obviously some holes. Drummond usually finds himself playing against an opposing team’s starting and closing lineups -- the ones typically including the other team’s best players. And Detroit has had issues with their starting units keeping afloat to open games, something that may be linked to things other than Drummond. Clearly, factors like this can make these results look a little less friendly toward Piston’s big man.

    That said, where there’s smoke there’s fire. Such ugly splits can partially be explained by these underlying factors, but it’s hardly some flukey scenario that absolves Drummond of blame. Looking at some of the underlying data, and you start to see why. For starters, the Pistons are a worse rebounding team with Drummond -- who averages 14.1 per game -- on the floor. The concept of “empty rebounders” isn’t really new and with Drummond in particular, it’s been happening now for two seasons.​
     
  3. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Those rebounding issues also tie into the fact that the Pistons are drastically better defensively when Drummond has sat this season. When Drummond plays, Detroit posts a defense rating of 108.7, per NBA.com, which would be one of the bottom marks in the league if it held up over an entire season. When he’s sat this year, the Pistons post a suffocating mark of 99.8 -- just over full point better than the league-leading Spurs.

    When watching Detroit on film, you will see why there’s such a large gap. Drummond’s engagement defensively comes and goes almost on a nightly basis. He can be prone to lazily reach for steals in pick-and-roll defensively and could definitely get a lot from a class in the Marc Gasol school of defensive positioning and anticipation. And for all the talk of his athleticism, Drummond doesn’t deter opponents’ success near the rim.

    When he’s on the floor, opponents shoot 61.3 percent on shots less than five feet from the basket, per NBA.com. To put that in perspective, only seven teams allow less resistance on those types of shots. Five of those clubs rank 19th or lower in defensive efficiency while the other two (Dallas and Houston) are tied for 14th. For all the talk of Drummond’s defensive presence, it isn’t manifesting itself into things that actually, ya know, stop opponents from scoring.​
     
  4. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Then there’s the curious case of Jon Leuer. Brought in under the guise of being a Ryan Anderson-like player in Van Gundy’s system, Leuer has been a mixed bag. In his first season of extended minutes, Leuer hasn’t produced neither the accuracy nor volume of looks that make him anything like Anderson. Instead, Leuer has looked more like a funky, smallball 5 than a pure stretch 4 -- it’s just that Van Gundy hasn’t ever really fully unleashed him.

    Some of the Detroit 5-man lineups with Leuer at center have destroyed opponents. The problem is, there are very few that have played over a handful of minutes (though one group that has played 10 total minutes has outscored opponents by 60 points per 48…). With the way the NBA is going, Van Gundy would be wise to explore just how effective personnel groupings with Leuer at the center can be -- something that would help with offseason decisions involving Baynes, Marjanovic and Ellenson.​
     
  5. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    wow
     
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  6. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    How you explain the fact that the Pistons were a better team with their starters on the floor for the past few years before this year. The starting 5 was one of the best in the NBA last year? Do you think that Dre got noticeably worse?

    Similarly, our bench was one of the worst in the league last year and this year they are above average.

    Changes in the starting lineup from last year to this year:
    1) Reggie has been missing or hobbled for the entire season
    2) Leuer has played in playe of Tobias Harris for 28 games of it

    Changes in the bench lineup from last year to this year:
    1) Ish Smith has replaced Old Man Blake
    2) Tobias Harris (our leading scorer per game) was moved to the bench to boost their scoring ability
    3) Stanley Johnson hasn't played as much
    4) Tolliver is gone

    I don't think that the difference is that Dre got suddenly worse and that Baynes came into his own. Dre is an above average starting center (probably top 5-6) and Baynes is perhaps the best bench center in the league.

    Last year with Reggie Jackson on the court per 48 min, we scored 104.0 and allowed 101.5. This season, that has turned into 98.9 and 106.6.

    That is a 5.1 point drop offensively and a 5.1 point drop defensively. 10.2 point swing total. Considering that his health is the only significant change, I think that we should assume that is the reason. Plurality must never be posited without necessity


    The NBA is point guard driven and we unfortunately have a dud this year. The guy got his big contract and then chose to have a procedure done to deal with an issue that we knew that he had when we signed him. Hopefully the investment that he made in the long-term health of his knee benefits us in the coming seasons.
     
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  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    As far as Dre, I don't particularly like him personally. I just like that the Pistons have a real center. It sucks when the team that you root for has average or below average talent at that position- like Kwame Brown, Nazr Mohammed, Eric Montross, etc. Right now, we are pretty loaded at the center position. So loaded that we aren't playing our FA signing.

    Position: DET PER/ OPP PER/ Differential

    PG: 15.8/ 19.3/ -3.5
    SG: 12.3/ 13.6/ -1.3
    SF: 15.0/ 14.2/ +0.7
    PF: 15.9/ 16.1/ -0.2
    C: 21.2/ 18.7/ +2.5

    On the season, center has been our most productive net position and point guard has been our worst.

    Here is how it looked last season:

    PG: 16.8/ 16.4/ +0.4
    SG: 12.5/ 13.1/ -0.6
    SF: 11.7/ 11.9/ -0.3
    PF: 14.7/ 15.8/ -1.1
    C: 21.7/ 20.9/ +0.8

    Center was our best net position and point guard was our second best. The rest were pretty neutral.


    Again, the big change is point guard effectiveness this year offensively and defensively. At the center position, the only change is that opposing centers are slightly less productive this year than they were last year.
     
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  9. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    cumm. last yr = -0.8
    this yr = -1.4
     
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  10. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    -- just -- win --
    however this would please me:
    PG -1
    SG +1
    SF +1
    PF +1
    C +1
    nice and well rounded with the PG making sacrifice to involve the entire team
     
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  11. basketbills

    basketbills All-Star Forum Donor

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    This confirms what most of us have been seeing this year. I guess we weren't hallucinating after all.
     
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  12. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I hardly hallucinate these days. Watching the Pistons is like watching a slow motion car crash with everyone I have ever loved involved.
     
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  13. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I always try to avoid mind reading but I would suggest Dre wouldn't be the first guy to have a letdown after signing the deal of a lifetime.
     
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    All in intangible ways? Come on. His PnR partner is a shell of himself and Dre has maintained his production even playing with backups. Mainly because of his improved post game.
     
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  15. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    What does that have to do with running back hard on defense?
     
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  16. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    The article rings true to me about Dre and RJ, but it also needs to look at the top of the organization. SVG came in as the genius of the pick and roll, having substantially changed the basic NBA offense while in Orlando. And he has a team that can barely run a P&R. He talked about shooting threes being the next big thing. And he has put together a team last or nearly last in the league in shooting and making threes. The players he's brought in aren't bad, several could be top sixth men on really good teams, but none are going to change the direction of the team. The offense has been rigid and inefficient, and defense is something they talked about once in training camp. And I can't imagine that SVG's constant yelling is really making much of a difference. I'd give him the summer and a couple of months into next season and if the trajectory isn't upward, then turn him loose.

    Shut down Reggie and put him in treatment from now until October and see if he can return to being the guy he was last year. No clue what to do with Dre. Trading him would be hard, but you should also never assume that there isn't someone out there dumber than you are. They've got to make progress in the draft because right now no one is coming here. Gonna be an ugly few years unless they stay the course and be happy with 8th - 10th place finishes in the east.
     
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  17. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    Lowe had this to say about Dre last week:


    Ten things I like and don't like, including Whiteside's trick bag
     
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  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Aren't we the number 1 team in the league at preventing fast break points? You want us to be number zero.

    It's not hockey with 50 second shifts. A 280 lb guy does have to pace himself a bit. He also has to avoid fouling.

    As far as your rim protection argument, Dre blocks 1.3 shots per 36 compared to 1.2 for Baynes. I know that is a dreaded stat, but it helps to check bias.
     
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  19. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    His lack of hustle back on D hurts us in the halfcourt.

    So now he's too big to run back. What does Baynes weigh? Baynes runs back hard and fast every time. It's like night and day.

    I'm not against stats, but I am hoping you will take on the stats in the article, specifically the "empty rebounding" notion.

    Also, if you're comparing Dre to Baynes as a rim defender, then you're not watching very closely. Dre is the athlete, Baynes is the white guy with bad hands and no hops. It shouldn't be close at all.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2017
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  20. basketbills

    basketbills All-Star Forum Donor

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    Guess I wasn't hallucinating about that either.
     
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