1. PF.com is also on Facebook. Follow/Like us Here.
    Dismiss Notice

The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 5x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2005
    Messages:
    22,687
    Likes Received:
    12,814
    Location:
    Michigan
    Slippy, C-Bill and roscoe36 like this.
  2. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    31,439
    Likes Received:
    12,214
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Thule
    Amazing. I hate computers. Life was more fun when we didn't understand anything IMO.
     
    junior and Walter like this.
  3. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    6,501
    Likes Received:
    4,713
    Gender:
    Male
    There can be some interesting applications like analyzing crowd patterns when sports arenas empty out and see if improvements can be made that can help with the flow. Or law enforcement using analytics for developing crowd control strategies.
     
    C-Bill and roscoe36 like this.
  4. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    31,439
    Likes Received:
    12,214
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Thule
    I am serious about this. I collaborate with a friend who is working on some next-level decision making algorithms. It's cool but I can see it sapping the joy out of doing things. No more discovery, just consulting the algo for an answer. The death of intuition. No more uncertainty.

    It's like creating jazz songs with a computer. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
     
    brofmfa, C-Bill and The Panda like this.
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    20,768
    Likes Received:
    7,936
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    Or like crossing an ocean by using an airplane.
     
    dba and C-Bill like this.
  6. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    31,439
    Likes Received:
    12,214
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Thule
    I don't mean computer generated sounds like synthesizers.

    I mean computers generating the melodies, tempo changes, structure, etc.

    I am all for technological growth, but when we start employing technology to replace human intellectual/experiential growth and emotional expression, then that's when I nope out.

    It's fragilizing IMO.

    Don't get me wrong, I know it is inevitable. I don't expect to be alive to enjoy the utopia we're building.
     
    BallDon'tLie and brofmfa like this.
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    20,768
    Likes Received:
    7,936
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    It's going to be satisfactory.
     
    BallDon'tLie, dba and C-Bill like this.
  8. C-Bill

    C-Bill All-Star

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2014
    Messages:
    613
    Likes Received:
    1,000
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    Cracked me up!
     
  9. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2008
    Messages:
    1,661
    Likes Received:
    1,763
    The one thing we are a long way off from doing is teaching computers to think creatively (we don't even understand how we think creatively) so there's no real threat there. Computers are logical machines that need rules and algorithms, whereas people are mostly pattern-matching machines whose internal workings we have virtually no math for. Sure, we can model that behavior using logical mathematical systems, but we're so good at pattern-matching that we can usually see any differences right away.

    Mostly, computers are used to supplement our activities by doing monotonous tasks like data crunching so we can do the more interesting problem-solving stuff that they can't. They're far more of an ally than a threat - look at the jobs that modern analytics has created virtually out of thin air.
     
  10. vincy4fish98

    vincy4fish98 Bench Warmer

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2005
    Messages:
    206
    Likes Received:
    222
    "I am in the camp that is concerned about super intelligence. First the machines will do a lot of jobs for us and not be super intelligent. That should be positive if we manage it well. A few decades after that though the intelligence is strong enough to be a concern. I agree with Elon Musk and some others on this and don't understand why some people are not concerned." Bill Gates
     
    roscoe36 likes this.
  11. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    31,439
    Likes Received:
    12,214
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Thule
    Did you watch the video? That is one group of researchers working on one relatively narrow area.

    It doesn't have to work like a human would. It just has to be close enough that you and I can't tell the difference.

    The minute we can replace coaches with algorithms, bye bye Larry Brown. And the minute we can replace musicians with algorithms, bye bye Miles Davis.

    Progress has zero empathy. I am ok with that, but I definitely don't want to be caught napping when I become replaceable.
     
  12. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 5x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2005
    Messages:
    22,687
    Likes Received:
    12,814
    Location:
    Michigan
    Did you know @Slippy@Slippy is an algorithm aiming to replace you?
     
  13. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    31,439
    Likes Received:
    12,214
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Thule
    I wish @CloudWalker@CloudWalker hadn't bailed for an undetermined amount of time. He would have understood. :)
     
  14. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2005
    Messages:
    4,630
    Likes Received:
    1,232
    Location:
    Oakland, CA
    Does not compute. *beep*boop* humor deployed.
     
    webz likes this.
  15. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2005
    Messages:
    4,630
    Likes Received:
    1,232
    Location:
    Oakland, CA
    I've read two booth related to this. Blink by Malcolm Gladwell and Nudge by Richard Thaler.
    Blink looks at the notion that in certain circumstances, a person's intuition is the most accurate and sometimes more deliberate study yields the wrong result. The key factors are the person's ability to process information and also to weed out extraneous information. There is a reoccuring idea of time-slicing. That data is temporal. Its there one second and not the next. One study in the book talked about this guy who filmed couples talking and could predict with 90% accuracy whether the couple would get divorced or not.
    Nudge talks about how very few people make logical decisions and that the vast majority of illogical or emotional decisions are corralled by choice architects. Humans are emotional decision makers.

    Because we are such heavy emotional decision makers, we seek out people who can supply analytical decision making. This is a next logical step. Even then it is too abstract. There would be factors of the orientation of the body, the technique of the movement , the athleticism and balance of the participants. Over time, these will be folded into the data pool for analysis.

    Super analytics have become and will continue to evolve as choice architects. The danger is not machines replacing humans but rather humans discarding their core values for that of the machine.
     
    webz and roscoe36 like this.
  16. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    31,439
    Likes Received:
    12,214
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Thule
    Brilliant.
     
  17. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    6,501
    Likes Received:
    4,713
    Gender:
    Male
    I think we are more likely to see the refs replaced instead of coaches. This is already happening to a certain extent via instant replays and the infamous "Secaucus Nuclear Launch Center". I can easily see even higher resolution cameras coupled with supercomputers making calls instead of humans. I'd argue that this would make the calls more accurate, but that comes at the expense of a lot of drama around the ref-player-coach interactions, shouting matches, technical fouls etc etc. It is always more interesting to watch a Spurs playoff game if Joey Crawford is the ref assigned to the game for instance.
     
    The Panda and roscoe36 like this.
  18. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2005
    Messages:
    4,630
    Likes Received:
    1,232
    Location:
    Oakland, CA
    Human activity must always remain human. You can put computer glasses on a ref so he can make better calls; you can have a coach use a computer screen to show the optimal play, you can have analytics dominate a draft day warroom but it still has to come down to people making decisions.
    A computer can already simulate a complete basketball game. Its called NBA 2k15. Nobody is interested in watching an autoplay of that. We want to see human achievement.

    pretty cool topic for the off season.
     
  19. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    31,439
    Likes Received:
    12,214
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Thule
    I blame Laimbeer.
     
    BillLaimbeer likes this.
  20. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2005
    Messages:
    4,630
    Likes Received:
    1,232
    Location:
    Oakland, CA

Share This Page