The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Not sure that doesn't not make sense.
  2. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Aaaah, ok I got it now. Thanks for the clarification.
  3. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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    Important to note that over large samples the 'average effect' diminishes as outliers begin to balance. So for Brick Smith the average is fine.
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    The 2004 Pistons had 5 players that appeared in at least one all-star game (Billups, Rip, Sheed, Ben, and Memo).

    Any team since them have more?
  5. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    The 2010 C's had Garnett, Pierce, Raymond Allen, Rondo and Sheed.
  6. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    This year's Heat have 4.

    Last year's Heat had 5.

    It looks like this year's Brooklyn Nets may have 6.
  7. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    And the O'Neal brothers.
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    The plus minus stat has received a spin off called "real plus minus". They run all of it through a big regression analysis to try to figure out which players are responsible for the +/- on offense and defense and then they adjust accordingly. Obviously the methodology is going to be too complicated for any of us to understand and even if we did, we could probably do a good job debating it for years on end.

    For example, it seems to incorporate all of Lee's methodology: "RPM reflects enhancements to RAPM by Engelmann, among them the use of Bayesian priors, aging curves, score of the game and extensive out-of-sample testing to improve RPM's predictive accuracy." No mention of major runs vs semi runs, but I'm going to assume that they factor that in until I find out otherwise.

    Anyways, here is a link to the updated figures:
    NBA Real Plus-Minus - National Basketball Association - ESPN

    When you rank our players in terms of defensive RPM, here is how it looks:
    1. Harrellson +3.07
    2. Smith +1.82
    3. Monroe +1.18
    4. KC Pope +0.83
    5. Singler +0.27
    6. Jerebko +0.17
    7. Mitchell -0.07
    8. Datome -0.08
    9. Drummond -0.24
    10. Villanueva -0.83
    11. P Siva -0.96
    12. Billups -1.84
    13. Stuckey -3.12
    14. Bynum -3.44
    15. Jennings -4.52 (430th out of 435 NBA players)
    Some of these are small sample sizes, especially Harrellson, Mitchell, Datome, Villanueva, Siva, and Billups.

    However, the thing that really stands out to me is Jennings. Nobody here has been standing by him and claiming that he is a good defensive player, but I'm still struck by how dreadful he looks in this ranking. Jimmer is dead last in the NBA at -5.42. This is saying that Jennings is only a hair better on D than Jimmer. When you add Stuckey and Bynum to the equation, it's a sad state of affairs on the defensive end.

    The other game when Siva put a little pressure on the ball, it seemed to cause a fair amount of stress to Boston. I hadn't witnessed anything like from the Pistons in years... granted it was brief, against a horrible team, and against a team without their PG. However, Jennings wasn't causing any pressure at all against the same team. I am wondering how our team would look this year from a defensive standpoint if we had a strong defensive PG who disrupted the other team's ability to get into sets.


    Conclusion: our weak defense from our guards is killing us and making our bigs look like bigger fools than they really are.
  9. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    You're right, this is the record. Sheed wasn't there then, but those 2 make 6. Nice!
  10. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    The '86 Celtics had 6 All-Stars:

    1. Bird
    2. McHale
    3. Parish
    4. Ainge
    5. DJ
    6. Walton
  11. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    I believe the question said after, but another good answer.

    Wasn't Scotty Wedman on this team also? He was an All Star for the KC Kings.
  12. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    This year's New Jersey Nets ... .... .... .... .... .... ... ... .. .. . . . ..... ... . ... ... .... ..... ..... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... .
  13. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Rajon Rondo today missed out on a Triple Double because he didn't score enough points. I always think that's such a waste. I thought this had happened to him quite a bit, but turns out it is only the 5th time. I was interested to see who else may have been a 'serial offender'.

    Triple Doubles missed by lack of points
  14. Nemo

    Nemo Pun Master Forum Donor

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    I kinda expected to see Kobe on that list a few times...
  15. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Ummmm, really?
  16. Nemo

    Nemo Pun Master Forum Donor

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    Nah...:)
  17. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    Andre Drummond was the worst free throw shooter in the league this season at .418%

    Josh Smith was the 4th worst free throw shooter in the league at .532%

    Monroe was the 9th worst free throw shooter in the league at .657%

    Jennings somehow was only the 40th worst free throw shooter in the league this year at .751% (That's Larry Bird territory on this team!)

    Weak link Kyle Singler was 31st in the league (You won't believe this but we're actually near the top of the list now) at 826%

    Rodney Stuckey will jog out of Detroit with his head held high if the time comes on the back of the leagues 29th best FT%, .827%
  18. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    826%? Ballin'!
  19. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    They don't call him buckets for nothing.
    The Panda likes this.
  20. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    How do the Pistons' new acquisitions affect the team statistically?

    Last year, Detroit was 7th in TOV% and 1st in ORB%, but they didn't shoot efficiently (24th) and didn't shoot a lot of FTs per FGA (22nd).
    They exchanged Stuckey (382/853 effective field goals (i.e. 1.5*3-pointers)for .450 efg with a .342 free throw rate at .836 ft%) for Meeks (495/892 for a .554 efg with a .289 ftr at .857 ft%). Upgrade in shooting, probable downgrade in free throws.
    They exchanged Billups (31/79 for .392 efg with .152 ftr at .833 ft%) and some of Jennings (500/1135 for .441 efg with .283 ftr at .751 ft%) and likely Bynum (194/430 for .451 efg with a .281 ftr at .802 ft%) for Augustin (364.5/718 for .508 efg with .316 ftr at .885 ft%). Win in all accounts.
    They exchanged some of Smith (552/1233 for .448 efg with a .244 ftr at .532 ft%), Singler (316/602 for .525 efg with a .306 ftr at .826 ft%), and Datome (37.5/97 for .387 efg with a .103 ftr at .800 ft%) for Butler (262/540 for .512 efg with a .139 ftr at .840 ft%). If he only replaces Datome's and Smith's production, it's a total win. If he starts to eat into Singler's production, however, that brings his benefit down.

    They also exchanged Cheeks and Loyer ("non-stat-guy" and "guy building resume") for Van Gundy (answers to nobody). I'm assuming that they get Smith more shots near the basket (.711 efg) and fewer long-range shots (about .350 efg), and Jennings sticks to pick-and-rolls. Additionally, the offense will spread the floor, meaning more space for Monroe, Smith, and Drummond to operate inside. Prediction: a jump of around 4 points per game.

    Defensively, we'll see. It will benefit the team to keep Monroe off the perimeter, to get rid of Bynum and Stuckey and reduce the impact of Jennings, all of whom didn't care, but it's not like they're replacing those guys with defensive stalwarts. With another year inside, Drummond's instincts should improve, but he's an overrated presence right now - the team was actually one of the worst teams in the league in 2p% allowed, which should NEVER happen if you have a great rim protector. SVG will enforce better defensive communication, and with the team putting in effort, the days of teams seeing open looks all day long should vanish, even if they still make a higher percentage than is comfortable. Prediction: somewhere between no effect and a drop of .5 points per game allowed. I'll split the difference and call it -0.25

    Total, you're looking at a 105-104.75 scoring average, which projects to around a .500 season. If we can pencil in Brooklyn, Chicago, Cleveland, Indiana, Miami, and Toronto for the playoffs, I think that leaves Detroit realistically fighting with Charlotte and Washington for the last two playoff slots.
    Nemo, junior, The Panda and 2 others like this.

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