The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2006
    Messages:
    4,186
    Likes Received:
    330
    Location:
    Ann Arbor/Chicago/Walland, TN
    Maybe it's just the defense. The opponents have been told by their coach that no Piston can hit an outside shot, but in the first half they just don't believe and continue to guard shooters. After halftime they stop guarding jump shooters and concentrate on taking away inside play and the Pistons are sunk.
    brofmfa and linwood like this.
  2. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    4,829
    Likes Received:
    738
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Saginaw, Michigan
    Yup!
    TaS do you have a link to a website that shows players FG%'s from specific areas on the floor?

    That's all fine and dandy, but I would be interested to see what the stats look like only in the games we lose
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,002
    Likes Received:
    2,476
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    I'm on cell only, but I think espn and nba both have it. Also feel like cbs sports might have something like that.

    Bball-ref has a link, but it's blank I think.
  4. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    11,945
    Likes Received:
    1,209
    Location:
    Rancho Cucamonga, CA
    This site provides a bunch of info....you just have to play with the filters to get what you want..
    Perstats.nba.com/playerTrackingCatchShoot.html?pageNo=1&rowsPage=25
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,002
    Likes Received:
    2,476
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    CourtVision: The Worst Shooters So Far - The Triangle Blog - Grantland

    This is very telling. Josh Smith shoots .265 from outside of 8 feet. He's 71 for 268 on the season from > 8' as of the writing of the article.

    Here is the link to the nba.com shot chart for JS. Just change the player to see different ones.
    NBA Stats

    Here is Singler's. Notice that he's great from the corners compared to straight away or to the wings.
    NBA Stats

    21-43 from the corners (.488).
    9-36 from the rest (.250). I would estimate that about 5 of these are quarter end chucks. He probably realistically shoots around .300 from there.

    Here is why he's so efficient though. He avoids no-man's land. He's only 5-20 from no man's land.

    He's 67-108 from inside the FT line arc (.620).


    In contrast, here is Jennings. From inside the FT arc, he has a big problem.
    NBA Stats
    97-245 (.396). That's nasty conversion for basically in the paint.


    Bynum is 40-91 from that range (.440). Still not very good.

    Stuckey is 106-218 (.486). Getting better.


    For comparison, here is Chris Paul. 134-263 (.510).


    Our weirdest case is Billups. Only 2-14 from inside the FT line on the season (that's like 1 quarter's worth of attempts for Will Bynum). Chauncey is 1-22 from 3-point land straight away and one zone to the right. To the left zone an the left corner, he's 11-22. That's some old man basketball when you've only made 2 shots in the paint in 17 games. He also gets less than 1 FTA per game.
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2014
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,002
    Likes Received:
    2,476
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    By the way, this looks like the website that I've been searching for.

    nbawowy!

    Very powerful tool to break down unit combinations and get more data that we would ever want. Can view by quarter. Can view by what happened prior (i.e. how do we perform after the opponent makes vs misses). Will have to explore it when I have more time.
    brofmfa and roscoe36 like this.
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,002
    Likes Received:
    2,476
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    After looking up the defensive stats for Singler and Smith, I thought I'd flesh out the rest of the team to try to give some perspective on where the leaks are. IMO, PPP allowed (points per possession) is the best figure to look at. It misses help defense, so it's not all encompassing, but it's a decent indicator of D. PPP defines a possession as either a shot attempt, a shooting foul, or a turnover. So, passing the ball to somebody else is the only scenario that it doesn't consider. PPP allowed rewards defenders for forcing turnovers and also punishes them for fouling (or rewards them if they foul guys that miss FTs). I'm showing the components so that you can get a better picture of why somebody's PPP is good or bad.

    Anyways, for what it's worth, here is where we stand:

    Plyr: PPP/ FG%/ 3P%/ SF%/ Tov%/ And 1 (commentary)

    BJ: 0.89/ .416/ .362/ 5.5%/ 14.1%/ 6 (Solid. His steals really help)
    WB: 0.85/ .427/ .467/ 4.5%/ 20.0%/ 2 (Bynum's PPP is so good mainly because of his 20% forced turnover rate. He gives up 3's at a crazy rate (Lee was right!), but makes up for it and more apparently.)
    CB: 0.89/ .392/ .360/ 4.7%/ 12.5%/ 0 (Better than I was expecting to see. It's actually Chauncey's offense that is killing him this year).

    KP: 0.93/ .387/ .333/ 7.4%/ 10.5%/ 2 (high foul rate is hurting him. Doing a great job covering the perimeter. Might be helping us by discouraging possessions).
    RS: 0.99/ .471/ .377/ 4.7%/ 12.2%/ 1 (Not that good. Giving up both 2's and 3's at a high rate. Something is wrong here).

    JS: 0.96/ .435/ .376/ 3.2%/ 8.7%/ 0 (Not good. The 3-pointers are damaging. Also, his man isn't turning it over much).
    KS: 0.85/ .381/ .283/ 3.7%/ 9.9%/ 3 (Already discussed in depth)

    GM: 0.85/ .392/ .439/ 6.6%/ 10.2%/ 6 (Really good overall. He's getting stretched by stretch 4's (18-41 from 3) and he's fouling a lot with 6.6% and 6 and 1's.)
    CV: 1.29/ .533/ .677/ 0.0%/ 11.8%/ 0 (Relatively small sample, but fugly to an extreme degree so far).

    AD: 0.86/.426/ .265/ 4.7%/ 8.2%/ 2 (Very good. I think it's his lack of help D that is the problem. He's shutting down his man.)
    JH: 0.69/ .288/ .250/ 10.8%/ 7.7%/ 1 (Off the chart good so far in limited play. His man is 15-52 so far against him this year. More PT please)

    Leaving out Jerebko, Siva, Datome, and Mitchell because of their small samples. Their PPP are 0.61, 1.0, 1.0 and 1.0 respectively. PS gives up 3's at a 60% clip so far (6-10). Not fair to hold him to that until we see more.

    Based on this wacky analysis, a bench lineup of Bynum/ Pope/ Singler/ Monroe/ Harrellson could actually be a good defensive lineup. It has interesting spacing potential on offense too.


    I still believe that Josh Smith is an elite defender at the PF spot. He's causing a lot of turnovers too, just not on his own man (which is OK and allows him to avoid fouls).
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2014
    The Panda and BillLaimbeer like this.
  8. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2006
    Messages:
    6,314
    Likes Received:
    1,348
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Parts Unknown
    Name a PF he can defend. As bad a defender as he is as the 3 he is worse at the 4.
  9. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,002
    Likes Received:
    2,476
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    Greg monroe. He hardly lets him get any touches at all.
  10. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    19,890
    Likes Received:
    1,734
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Dagobah
    YOU DIDNT SEE THAT ONE COMING ERNIE.
  11. The Panda

    The Panda All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2012
    Messages:
    1,733
    Likes Received:
    826
    Gender:
    Male
    From memory he held people to league average PER or slightly below when he was played at PF in Atlanta

    11-12

    Last year it was a 17 PER, not so good.
  12. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2006
    Messages:
    6,314
    Likes Received:
    1,348
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Parts Unknown
    I thought he was at least OK a few seasons ago also. I don't mean it as he doesn't care either.

    At the end of the day he is a (very) undersized PF. That is the Josh Smith conundrum.
  13. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2008
    Messages:
    1,085
    Likes Received:
    686
    [​IMG]
    The Panda and linwood like this.
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,002
    Likes Received:
    2,476
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    Just did a sampling of Josh Smith's last 30 3-point attempts. I should do a bigger sample, but it's grueling to watch. My curiosity was centered around how many 3's he is essentially forced to take to bail us out of a bad possession. Conclusion is that it isn't many.

    Here is how I categorized openness (not easy to do I have come to realize)
    wide open = all by himself and nobody closing
    open = all by himself with somebody closing
    average = guarded by his man, but sagged well off
    contested = his man is actively guarding him and a player shouldn't normally attempt a 3 in this situation
    heavily contested = defender in his grill. Nobody would take this shot if there wasn't a shot clock reason to do so.

    Result: M = make. X = miss.
    SC = shot clock value at time of release


    Res: SC/ Openness
    M: 1/ heavily contested (against PHO!)
    M: 13/ wide open
    M: 20/ wide open
    X: 18/ wide open
    X: 8/ wide open
    X: 12/ wide open
    X: 11/ open
    X: 2/ average
    X: 12/ average
    X: 7/ contested
    X: 13/ open
    X: 19/ open
    X: 4/ average
    M: 18/ average
    X: 3/ contested
    X: 8/ contested
    X: 13/ open
    X: 7/ average
    X: 11/ average
    X: 6/ open
    X: 17/ average
    X: 6/ average
    X: 10/ wide open
    X: 1/ contested
    M: 6/ open
    M: 12/ average
    X: 10/ contested
    X: 13/ average
    X: 11/ contested
    X: 15/ average

    6-30 overall (.200)

    Heavily contested: 1-1 (1.000)
    Contested: 0-6 (.000)
    Average: 2-11 (.182)
    Open: 1-6 (.167)
    Wide open: 2-5 (.400)


    The thing that I noticed in this small sampling was that there weren't an abnormal number of late shot clock forced attempts where we had no other options. Those made up 2 of 30 with another 1-2 being debatable (with a few seconds left, JS being open enough, and nothing else promising developing). There were an abnormal amount of really, really open opportunities where his man was just gone to help somewhere else on the court. There were also a lot of opportunities where his man was sagged off so far that they had no chance of really contesting the shot. They'd close on him, but when he'd start his shot attempt, they'd be 5+ feet away still.

    There is probably a more reliable way to go about this analysis I'm realizing after doing it. I'm not 100% sure that if I did it again or if someone else did it that the openness categories would perfectly match. It was especially difficult to pick between average and contested because it's a spectrum.

    I bet Josh Smith makes a pretty high percentage (like 55%+) when he's shooting by himself at practice. He probably doesn't realize that guys like Ray Allen are more like 85%.
    Laimbrane and The Panda like this.
  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,002
    Likes Received:
    2,476
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    One last thought for the night. Is Jorts possibly a great defensive player? His defensive stats are in a different league than the other guys on our team and his sample size is getting fairly relevant, especially if you include his season with the Knicks in 11-12, when he got a fair amount of playing time.

    '11-12 season. He allowed 0.73 ppp, which was 34th out of about 450 players. His man shot 45-126 against him (.357).
    '12-13 season. (only played a total of 31 minutes)
    '13-14 season. He's allowing 0.69 ppp, which is 18th in the league. His man is 15-52 against him this year (.288).

    Here are a list of players who have attempted shots against him this year (to pre-emptively answer your question about whether he's going up against scrubs):
    Zach Randoph, Ed Davis, Nene, Gortat, Porter, Booker, Vucevic, Glen Davis, Maxiell, McRoberts, Al Jefferson, Cody Zeller, D. West, Scola, Aldridge, Garnett, R. Anderson, T Evans, Love, Pekovic, Bosh, Noah, Gibson, Lebron, CP3, Farmar, Boozer, Butler, Millsap, Ayon. There were only 3-4 guys who attempted shots against him that seemed like deep bench players.

    Observations from watching him:
    - he's hyper aware on defense
    - he holds his ground in the post before the entry passes (players don't get as close as they would like)
    - he doesn't leave his feet on pump fakes
    - guys have a hard time driving around him b/c he slides without reaching in or noticeably bumping them (gets away with impeding their line)
    - he takes a low stance as well with one foot way back and one arm outstretched to hedge against the drive or shot
    - seems to guard P&Rs well


    He admittedly seems like a guy who would stink defensively. But he has a history of being underestimated. In googling him, I notice that a lot of Knicks fans noticed his defense. Looks like his injury sort of derailed him there.
    New York Knicks: Josh Harrellson is an Impact Player – Fan Take - NBA - Yahoo Sports

    It might be nothing, but I'm really hoping that we found a long-term backup stretch center with under the radar defensive brilliance (so that we don't have to ever sign him for big bucks).
    Laimbrane and The Panda like this.
  16. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,002
    Likes Received:
    2,476
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
  17. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2010
    Messages:
    2,829
    Likes Received:
    987
    Josh for Bosh!
  18. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    4,829
    Likes Received:
    738
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Saginaw, Michigan
    Honestly, Jorts may make parting with Monroe palatable. Right now Monroe plays most backup minutes at C, if you move Moose then I think Jorts is capable of 15-20 mpg.
    The Panda likes this.
  19. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    4,568
    Likes Received:
    1,183
    Gender:
    Male
    I say keep 'em all and use a 4 big rotation.

    Available minutes:
    48 minutes of PF
    48 minutes of C

    Drummond plays 28 minutes at C
    Moose plays 10 minutes at C and 20 minutes at PF
    Jorts plays 10 minutes at C and 5 minutes at PF
    Smith plays 23 minutes at PF and 10 minutes at SF

    Get a stud SF that'll play 30+ minutes.*

    Go with Jennings/Pope back court, with Singler playing SG/SF for about 20 minutes total off the bench. You'll need a backup PG (Bynum for next year) to round it all up.

    * To be able to do this, we'll need to unload JJ's contract, and not pick-up the team option on Bup-Bup. And let Stuckey & CV walk. Combined, this will give us about $24M to spend this summer. If we can sign Moose & Deng to let's say $12M each, might be doable. It'll be tough, but it's time for Dumars to earn his salary.
  20. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2008
    Messages:
    1,085
    Likes Received:
    686
    Deng wants more than what Smith is making.

Share This Page