The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    [​IMG]

    This isn't posing. In the ring with the Fridge. Gotta look out for Manute's jab, it can sneak up on you. Reach = 102"!!! Once you're inside on him, the biggest challenge is reaching over his waistband to get body shots in. To knock him out you have to punch straight up in the air.

    Did I fail to mention that he's also the world's tallest liscenced jockey?
    [​IMG]
  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    At this point, our starters are logging more minutes per game as a unit than any other starters in the league. However, their scoring per 48 minutes are the 29th lowest in the NBA, ahead of only Memphis.

    Our bench scores at the 4th best pace in the league when they are out there together.

    The difference between these 2 scoring rates is 95.7 to 115.5, so 20 points difference.
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I feel like I have to give disclaimers on a high number of posts today. Maybe it's because some of them have dealt with the taboo topic of AI and I feel like I'm the villain when I point out his blemishes.

    Well, like the others, this isn't meant to knock AI down and it's certainly not meant to be beat a dead horse on the CB trade. I really am OK with it. I made it through DABDA.

    The point of this post is to take a cold look at some of thoughts on CB that had developed over the last few years. There were a few things that CB was doing wrong and that a superstar was supposed to correct. In this case, AI happens to be the superstar that we got to enjoy.

    Anyways, here were the arguments as I remember them:

    1) CB slowed down the offense with his big old slow self.
    2) CB couldn't stay in front of quick guards and he hurt our defense
    3) CB scored, but not like a superstar- couldn't create his own shot
    4) CB didn't draw fouls like a superstar because he never penetrated
    5) CB didn't break down the defense and create easy shots for teammates

    Feel free to disagree with me, but this is how I see the outcome:
    1) This year we are getting 88 possessions per game vs. 87 last year... virtually the same pace, even with a speedster like AI.
    2) This year we are giving up 93.5 ppg vs. 90.1 ppg last year- we gave up size for quickness in a bad way. (we can meet in the middle and blame MC for this one).
    3) CB has scored 740 pts this season to AI's 703 pts, so even superstars don't score like it when they are in Detroit.
    4) From the FT line this year, CB is 221-243 and AI is 186-238, almost even on attempts, but there is a huge gap on the makes.
    5) CB has 259 assists this year and AI has 211, he's playing PG to AI's SG, so a natural advantage. Also, they play at a much faster pace than us (ironically), so it's inflated. But still.

    Can't argue with the salary cap relief though. That is solid.


    AI has played in 1 extra game and logged 18 extra minutes.
  4. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Nah, it's all good. Sometimes we can get personal and then people get upset but your analysis is usually pretty dispassionate (in a good way). You're trying to find truth.

    AI is not playing the point though.

    If AI is playing the 1, and Rip the 2, this is a completely different convo.

    I don't recall much debate about whether or not CB scored enough.

    CB is a very good FT shooter. Probably one of, if not the best player to have at PG with 1 minute to go and a very small lead.

    Same argument for me. Compare AI to Rip (this year and last). That should be fun.

    The ability to remake the franchise for years to come by adding an elite, upper echelon piece (not saying Joe will actually do it), you betcha.

    We didn't just trade CB for AI. We traded CB and Dice's now bought out contract, for AI (1 season) and a possible long term superstar add to the roster.

    I don't think this trade can be assessed in less than 50 games. And not just on straight up stats.
  5. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    I can't believe Bol won that fight.
  6. professor

    professor Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    TaS, it's cool. Good work. The question that your comparison raises for me is, perhaps deeper: how do we really compare the two? I mean to say, the complaints about Chauncey, which I think you summed well, were of Chauncey as a member of the Pistons. So wouldn't we need to compare Chauncey's Pistons numbers against AI's Pistons numbers. I suspect that you'd find something similar (i.e. that what we complained about as Chauncey's problems were at least partly, maybe even mostly, systemic problems). I don't know, what do you think? (I haven't really thought it through, it's more like a quick impression as I'm writing in haste, chowing down a bagel in a cafe and have to teach in 7 minutes!)
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That's sort of what I was getting at. Except, to also imply that some of them weren't really problems. Denver's pace has slowed down a lot this year (although still much faster that our's), but it seems to have helped them.

    There were pros and cons and now we have cons and pros.
  8. professor

    professor Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    Fair enough. Though for me the issue was less about pace (if by pace you mean how quickly into the shot clock we get a shot) and more about movement with and without the ball. Hard for me to say how (if indeed at all) this could be measured statistically, but my impression is that we tended to stagnate offensively. And I certainly agree that this is not uniquely attributable to Chauncey or his style of play, nor is it somehow magically solved uniquely by the addition of AI or the promotion of Stuckey. But in any event, in terms of complaints about the half court offense mine would have more to do with stagnation than with pace.
  9. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    A good way to measure offense is by points, and there aren't as many of them anymore. How can that be? We have less stagnation, we get an extra possession per game, we have 2 guards that love to attack and get to the rim, we have AI who's one of the all time foul drawers...

    On top of all that, we have been sacrificing defense in order to put a 3-guard attack in place, which is supposed to score.

    Who here would have thought that trading CB for AI would result in significantly less points per game on offense? Think about this, the Clippers, the Grizzlies, and the Bobcats are the only teams that score less than us. Not good company.

    Cleveland, the best defensive team in the league, scores more than 7 ppg more than we do.
  10. professor

    professor Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    Here's where I get irrational. I can't argue with you on any of all of this. And yet for me the way to measure offense is actually by how much fun I have watching it. And I just couldn't stand the stand around and dribble stagnoffense. I repeat: I know that wasn't just Chauncey and I know that it still happens sometimes today. But it is happening less, for some reason, and so for me -- by the how-much-fun-is-prof-having-watching-it stat -- our offense has improved.
  11. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    It's the battle between the Old-fense (Rip/Tay/Sheed) and the New-fense (AI/Stuckey/Tay), if we play AI's way (pushing the ball to create (a) easy offense and/or (b) transitional mismatches) we'll eventually perfect it and score more often. If we play Rip's way, walk the ball up, get everyone set, now Rip can around all these screens, the game is slow and boring.

    It's so funny watching AI suffer while he has to run plays for Rip, he always has this look on his face like, "Why and the eff are we taking 23 seconds to run this BS, I could've got that shot off 20 seconds ago!!"
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    You're trying to ward off stagnation and possible deflation with devaluation and hyperinflationary stimulus. Why is everything trending that way these days?
  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Quick thoughts on our bigs.

    FG%
    Amir: .596
    Kwame: .556
    Maxiell: .544
    Dyess: .507
    Sheed: .414 (eFG of .493)

    First, Sheed, the problem as I see it-
    In stating the obvious here, Sheed's 3-pointers don't make up for his overall low FG% of late as you can see from his eFG < .500 compared to Dyess's 3-pointless .507. In his 15 year career, Sheed has posted his 6 lowest FG% years in his 6 years in Detroit. This year is his lowest at .414. His career average is .472, so that is a pretty big drop off.

    Now, the problem isn't that he's shooting 3's. Over the course of his career, the 3-pointers have proven to be a good gamble since he's averaged .509 on 2-pointers and an eFG of .512 on 3-pointers (ignores foul drawing, which would probably mean his 2's are slightly more effective). And this year is no exception, as he's averaging an eFG of .527 from deep.

    The problem this year is that his 2-point FG attempts have dropped off and so has his shooting % on 2-pointers. This year, he is only attempting 6 per game vs. a career average of 10, so his attempts are down 40%. Furthermore, his fg% on 2-pointers has fallen from a career average of .509 to .465.

    This basically fits with our consensus here that a Det Pistons coach should make it a priority to get Sheed more touches on the block. Especially when you factor in that he is a talented and willing passer.


    However, I've been a fan long enough to realize that the reality is that Sheed is slowing down, he doesn't have that pre-Ship hunger, and that his personality intimidates coaches into leaving him alone.

    So, what should be done?

    When you look at our other big men and their high FG%'s, I wonder why they don't get more plays run for them. Amir is the most opportunistic scorer of the bunch, so his % is inflated the most by chip-ins. His post play still looks awkward and I doubt focing the ball to him would work out well. However, Kwame and Maxiell can score in the post in very different ways. Maxiell is a bit of a black hole when he gets the ball in the post, but that's actually great, because we need all the inside attempts we can get. Kwame has really surprised me with his power moves and also his subtle passing to his fellow big men for easy buckets.

    I would recommend modifying the offense to find post up opportunities for Max and Kwame. You'll know you're giving them enough touching when their FG%'s fall to Sheed's level.
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    FREE THROWING UP:

    Some bad trends from the FT line this season, which will hopefully be partially corrected with the new and permanant line up correction. We are getting outscored from the free throw line by 3.1 ppg this year vs. 0.2 ppg last year.

    Our FT shooting:
    Last year we averaged .777 as a team and this year it is .740. That is a big enough drop off to go from 10th in the league to 27th. And while it doesn't look like a huge difference, it costs us about 1 point per game from just flat out missing a FT that we would have made last year.

    In addition, our attempts per game have gone down from 24.0 per game to 22.5 per game. This effect combined with the effect above means that our points per game from the line are down 1.7 from last year.

    Our opponent's FT shooting:
    This is the less obvious cause of our slippage. Last year, our opponents were shooting .744 from the FT line and this year they are up to .767. Also, their attempts have risen from 18.6 per game to 19.8. So, the other team is getting 1.2 more ppg from the line.


    Explanation for the phenomenon:
    The easiest part to explain is our own % drop. We lost a 90+% FT shooter who took the majority of our attempts. This year, Rip is our only player > 79%.

    The 2nd factor is that our guard dominated offense is not causing the contact to get to the line as often. CB was good at drawig fouls too.

    As far as the our opponents, it is unrealistic to think that they happen to be shooting such a higher percentage without a good reason. Since smaller players tend to shoot FT's at a higher percentage than big men, it is reasonable to assume that the difference is that we are fouling the other team's guard and SF's a lot more this year and are not fouling the big men as often. This directly points to our perimeter defense as a culprit.


    APPENDIX:
    Rip .872
    AI .793
    AA .791
    TP .778
    WH .778
    RW .769
    RS .755 (needs to improve this in the coming years)
    AJ .706
    WB .700
    AM .625 (how can this good of a shooter have such a bad average?)
    JM .550 (ugly, but he just doesn't have touch)
    KB .385 (historically bad, and a good counter argument for why he shouldn't be getting more post touches)
  15. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I knew Dyess had been rebounding really well, so I checked the board numbers. Of players with more than 500 minutes so far here are the Pistons and ranks for rebounds per minute played.

    Dyess - 6th
    Amir - 38th
    Max - 58th
    Sheed - 72nd
    Tay - 99th

    Stuck - 181
    AA - 186
    TGRH - 214
    AI - 233

    Dyess is kicking butt and taking names, second among PFs (Kevin Love is first)

    Sheed is 38th among centers, just above Amare, who never met a board he liked.

    Amir and Max are 16 and 26 among PFs.

    Stuck is the 14th best rebounding PG, AI is 39th

    Tay is 9th among SFs, but most of those came when he was playing the 4

    AA is 25th among SGs, Rip 39th. (Just in case those Mike Miller trade options are still open, MM is the best rebounding SG in the league.)
  16. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Dyess has really been superhuman in the 4th quarters. I think that it shows that if he's properly rested going into the playoffs this year that he can give a huge effort.

    Also, his ability to go into overdrive is one of the best arguments I can think of for having a regular season "finishing" lineup that is different than the starting lineup. If we're winning, don't waste Dyess's time. If it's a close game, then let him loose.
  17. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Point differencial.
    We may score less but our opponents are scoring less also.
    But until we can manage a ~.650 win % it doesn't make any diff.
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Except our opponents are actually scoring more. 92.7 vs. 90.1 last year.

    It's uncivilized I tell you.
  19. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    I'm deeply concerned.
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I've been wanting to put the season's SB vs BB stats together, but it is pretty labor intensive.

    I was going to drop it because I figure that SB was dead. However, like in a bad horror film, I threw the gun in the water and turned my back on the undead monster. (also, what is Danny Noonan doing in a canoe?)

    [​IMG]

    So, for now, I have compiled the last 10 games. It's a decent chunk of the season and makes the rest doable at some future point.

    Opp/ SB/ BB
    DAL/ -15/ -3
    TOR/ +3/ +16
    MEM/ 0/ +8
    NOH/ -7/ +1
    OKC/ -7/ -3
    IND/ +2/ -2 (it worked!!! it actually worked better than BB!!!)
    CHA/ -3/ +1
    UTA/ -15/ -2
    DEN/ -3/ +6
    POR/ 0/ -1 (there were 0 min of SB played in this game)

    TOT/ -45/ +22

    So, in the last 9 games where both styles were played, and almost in equal amounts, SB was worse than BB in 8 of those and was only slightly better than the opposition in 2 of them.

    Here's another pattern to practice on:
    1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, __. What number would complete the series?

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