Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.
Isn't Hooper the other one?
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I was going to post this in the Friday's game post.. but I'll do it here.
We don't have shooters, we all knew that this off season. But we were expecting more from Jennings, and a few more threes from Kyle Singler.
That's not happening.
Pistons have a star in Drummond
Good players in Smith, Jennings and Monroe
Decent players in Billups (Weak season so far, but I don't blame CB), Stuckey (Who is surprisingly rising up), and Bynum
A Project that nobody knows for sure how will it come up in Kentavious Caldwell Pope and Datome
Bad BAD BAD Players in: All of the rest.
That's another problem, we don't have a decent bench. Yes, Stuckey is providing coming from the bench, but he is playing starter minutes, I'm talking about good role players, we don't have that.
Well, we do, I think Gigi Datome can be that kind of guy, but coach is not giving him a chance to prove yet.
I think Datome should eat Singler's minutes.
Singler stats from last season:
Singler stats thus far this season:
There no "a problem" .. we have problemS
- Defensively from all the team.
- Shooting from the guards AND Smoove
- We are the worst team in the NBA in this categories:
Opponent's Field goal percentage (47.9%)
3 point field goal percentage (28.8%)
Free throw percentage (66.8%)
- We are the 4th worst team in the NBA in this category: Opponent's 3 point field goal % (38.4%)
But let's look at the bright side:
- We are decent at rebounding (15th in the team stats) (Pretty decent if you count that we are the worst team allowing 47.9% FGs)
- We are the best team in the offensive rebounds category (13.6 rebounds per game)
- We are one of the best teams in points in the paint
- We are #3 in the NBA as the team that makes the opponent team commits the most turnovers
- We are #4 in the NBA allowing the opponent team to only 40.9 rebounds per game
I'm trying to stay positive.. Of course this team needs changes, needs more sweat from the players, more everything.
But we have some this solved, it's a matter of time to figure out how to solve the other things that we suck at.
Hmm, speaking of stats. Stuckey is just ahead on PER vs. his opponent, like 16 to 14. But at point, he slaughters his opponent on PER, 40 to 10. Seems a coach would use Stuckey at point guard, where indeed, he has played half his minutes to this point. But last night, Siva played all back up point minutes. Every single one of them. Another game where coach did not use Stuckey to his best. Stuckey scored a ton, but it did not hold up - as he was minus 8 in this game. Wasted good game on offense from him. -82games.com data used- yes, still early, but I like watching early trends at least.
YTD raw stats
As a team the Pistons are dead last in FT % @ 66.8%....the 29th team Bobcats are at 69.1%...
We are dead last in three point shooting at 28.8%. The jazz are above us at 29.7% and everyone else above 30%.
We have the worst opposition FG% at 47.9% and the 4th worst 3PFG % opposition @ 38.4%. The Nets are the worst at 40.1% (with the Bulls and Sixers in between)
The good, we lead the league in steals at 9.88%, and Points in the Paint at 51.1 pg
We are 14th in the league in shooting from the field at 45.3%. Which probably due to the high fg% of Drummond and Moose.
Only 15 games in, but those negative or celler dweller stats have to improve if they think they can assure a playoff spot with the other five teams in the east battling for the third spot.
Here is a correlation:
When Andre Drummond attempts more than 2 FTs in a game, we are 7-2.
When he attempts 2 or less in a game, we are 2-8
It's hard to believe that he ever has an NBA game where he fails to get more than 2 FTs, but it surprisingly happens more than half the time. I'm not even talking about makes here, just attempts.
There are some what-have-yous here:
- teams foul him when they are about to lose (the Darko winning percentage effect)
- he doesn't get to the line when he's against great defenders who box out?
My big takeaway here is that we just need to use him as more of a primary weapon. Less than 2 FTA's means that he's never getting the ball in the post and he's just being a garbage man on offense (albeit an all-star level one). With the highest FG% in the league, we can afford to let him force it a little more. Our alternative is late shot clock 3's by Smith.
Defensive rebounding: This was trending to be a major disappointment earlier in the season as we were last in the league, despite having ridiculously good rebounders. Well, things have changed. We now rank 8th in the league in def rebounding %. Well above average and probably just about the best in the last 10 games or so since we rose from the bottom. Problem solved.
Total rebounding: We have the 5th best total rebounding percentage in the NBA. We are now the superior rebounding team that we all expected.
Defensive rating: We are now 17th in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions. Pretty much average. eFG% is a component of this and we've climbed from 30th to 27th in that. The reason that our defensive ranking is better than our eFG allowed ranking is that: 1) we cause the 2nd most turnovers, so they don't even get shots off, and 2) we rebound well, so their 2nd chance points are limited. We play a slightly above average pace, and yet we allow the 6th fewest FGA per game and the 8th fewest FTA per game.
I would compare this somewhat to the Tigers in that their fielders were below average, but the ball wasn't put into play as often due to our strike out pitchers.
Things are trending positively. The surprisingly bad stats were in categories where cohesiveness rules. If you don't play as a unit due to having new teammates, it is tough to defend and rebound. The Chauncey/Rip/Tay/Sheed/Ben pistons were cohesive as heck and played above the talent level of each part. Our current team have been playing at a level below the sum of it's parts, but that is starting to change.
Tomorrow's game may be frustrating, but the Bulls are cohesive.
Here is our no free throw shooting team:
Player: minutes/ FT makes
Harrellson: 100/ 0
Siva: 62/ 0
Villanueva: 52/ 0
Mitchell: 25/ 1
Datome: 80/ 2
Total: 319 minutes and 3 made free throws.
StatsBomb | Advanced NBA Stats Basics
Good intro to advanced stats without going beyond the really basic concepts. Probably most people are already aware of these concepts, but if you're not, it's a good start.
Here is how much we are paying our top 12 paid players for each win produced (if they played every minute of the season):
Josh Harrellson: $77K (rookie contract)
Kyle Singler: $101K (rookie contract)
Drummond: $157K (rookie contract)
Monroe: $453K (rookie contract)
KC Pope: $548K (rookie contract)
W Bynum: $567K (signed as a free agent)
Charlie V: $585K (signed as a free agent)
Jerebko: $844K (drafted and then resigned as a free agent)
Billups: $953K (signed as a free agent)
R. Stuckey: $987K (drafted and then resigned as a free agent)
B. Jennings: $1,098K (signed as a free agent)
J Smith: $3,228K (signed as a free agent)
This is why FA's are not the way to build a team. You have to add them at some point, but it stinks paying market value or more for guys. We have 3 prize FAs on the team and 1 was a bust (Charlie V). Jennings and Smith are giving us the least bang for the buck. Stuckey is the next most prominent and he's leading the team in scoring rate and having a resurgence, yet is still 3rd least efficient for the money.
I'm not criticizing the strategy of JD and I actually like the Smith acquisition, but just pointing a key dynamic in a salary cap structure and how organization have to think about it. The best and most efficient solution that I've ever seen to this problem was the 2004 Pistons. Our 3 best players before Sheed were all really cheap and were acquired at a discount to their true value (some FA and some through trade). Our draft picks were brilliant: Okur, Prince, (Darko should have been due to the Otis Thorpe bamboozle). The rest of the guys were cheap role players- big bodies to match up against Shaq, Corliss, defensive guards, etc. That model, once it was set up, proved to be very sustainable for a number of years. If Darko would have been Drummond, that probably would have resulted in a 3-peat.
But, how do you go about replicating the acquisitions of Billups, Hamilton, and Ben Wallace? You probably can't. There was luck involved. Some teams were doing it through international acquisitions, since the majority of NBA teams were under scouting. But the market caught up to that strategy.
Despite some of us (including me) being disappointed by the loss to the Blazers on Sunday, it appears that the defeat may given the team some confidence that they can run with the best of them and beat them.
After going 5-10 in November we could see that the potential was there, but a combo of bad defense, especially in closing out the 4th quarter, shot selection by the two free agents and the coach feeling everyone out caused the team to give away at least 3-4 games they should have won. We are 0-3 in OT games
Useless Meaningless Stats time
December started off with 4 victories including one over the defending champs, before we stumbled on a 3 game slide. This week we have played three division leaders, beaten two of them and took the other leader from the west into OT. So we are probably the only team to have beaten all three eastern conference division leaders this season.
7-4 so far this month and looking to add more W's as 5 of the six games remaining this month are vs teams with losing records and that is where most of our wins have come from...
In the 7 wins, this month, the Pistons have given up an average of 95.9 ppg. In the four losses, 113.25 ppg.
Got to better at home as we currently sit 6-8 overall, and 7-6 on the road
Last night was the first time all season that we had trailed at the end of three and won a game. So we now stand 1-11 after trailing at the end of three and 12-3 when leading after three.
Four victories have come against the Nets and Celtics......six losses to the Lakers, Hawks and Trailblazers.....only one win vs the west (Kings)
Not sure when the second tier eastern conference teams began to separate themselves from the tankers, but we need to keep that # 3 seed held by the Hawks in range to secure in the end and play well enough to keep ahead of the Nets and Wizards before they wake up.
It's pretty unbelievable that we have a winning record on the road after our slow start. I have to believe that our "big" lineup has allowed us to be competitive against the premier teams so far. Don't they all have physical SFs?
Useless stat of the week: Mitchell is third in the league in ORB/DRB (Percentage of rebounds that are offensive), behind Alex Len and Kravtsov. Harrelson is 28th, and Drummond is 36th.
Josh Smith is one of the slowest moving players in the NBA at 3.8 miles per hour. He does cover 2.3 miles per game, though.
These stats are really cool:
NBA Stats - Player Tracking Speed and Distance
He's faster than LeBron, Harden and Stephenson.
Pretty cool. Good to see some old guys, Parker & Nash, at the top of the speed ranking.
They have a top speed tracker too I believe.
Each team could really benefit of they found some good ways to crunch the data. So much though.
This feels to me like a pretty good quantification of hustle.
Danny Green, Ben McLemore, Tony Parker, and JJ Reddick are the only guys in the league that average more than 18 minutes a game and a faster running pace than Singler.
Also, Singler, Jerebko, and Jennings are the only Pistons in the top 200 players in terms of distance traveled per 48 minutes. Meanwhile, Smith, Billups, Monroe, Stuckey, Harrelson, and Mitchell are all in the bottom 100.
I notice that basketball-reference has a section where you can view the team's pace relative to the league average for each year.
Detroit Pistons Franchise Index | Basketball-Reference.com
It was interesting to me that in relation to the league, the bad boys played at a slower pace than Wallace x 2 days.
Chuck Daly coached 3 of the 6 slowest paced teams (relative to the league) in Pistons history.
'89 ship was 5.1 possessions below average
'90 was 3.9 below average
'06 was 3.7 below average
We've been below average pace in the last 13 seasons and 24 out of the last 27.
The top 10 winning percentage seasons for the franchise were all below league average pace.
I'd actually like to see our current team up the tempo since it eliminates their inefficient shot selection somewhat, but overall, that grinding slow style seems to be a Motor City trademark.
Also notice that the 2008 Pistons had the highest SRS in franchise history (takes into account point spreads, strength of schedule, etc). '89, '06, and '88 are the next 3 in the list.
We forget how good that regular season was because of our postseason disappointment. We had almost a 9 point average spread, which blows other seasons out of the water. We had 2 10 game win streaks (10 and 11). Held our opponents below 80 points 14 times, including 4 in the 60's. 30-8 against the Western Conference!
It's the season where Rip shot .440 from deep and Billups was also over .400. Even Sheed was at .356 and he was 6th best on the team. Flip Saunders had the offense humming WHILE the Pistons held opponents to the lowest average score in the league (4th best when adjusted for pace). But, it was with Sheed and Dyess (no Ben Wallace). Think of how great Sheed and Dyess were at spreading the floor with Billups, Rip, and Prince out there with them. All 5 were really good shooters with Billups, Rip, Dyess, and Sheed being great for their positions.
The starting 5 was peaking and our bench was filled with future NBA starters. Afflalo, Amir, Stuckey, and Maxiell (945 starts amongst them to date and they are all still young). We were #1 in the league in attendance and it was 4 years since our Championship.
And that wasn't even good enough to win it all. We were basically the 2013 Tigers.
Just a reminder of how difficult it is to get an edge on 29 other teams trying to accomplish the same goal.
They were a MLE, vet minimum and probably a coach from getting past Boston.
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