The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Charlie v is most baffling in this regard. One difference is the set nature and repetition of the ft vs the wild environment of 3 pointers. For instance, having quickness to get open helps shooting as much as shooting form. There would be a lot of 5'11" boys from indiana who would be all star nba players on offense if they could get their shots off.
  2. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Pretty interesting laim. You would think that the ability to shoot a basketball would have some relationship to your ability to shoot a basketball from somewhere else. Of course, I've seen careers and hundred million dollar ad campaigns launched on correlations much lower than the 0.3 - 0.4 range you're showing.

    Still, I thought the relationships would be stronger.
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  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    The correlation would be absolute if there were no defense. Dre's three point percentage would be higher than one of ours... even though we're all much better shooters. We just would never get our shots off.

    Also, many threes are forced in desperation... some are full court heaves. Usually by the best shooters otherwise. Free throws are always ideal conditions.
  4. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    Oh, sure... there are a lot of factors in play that make these essentially completely different shots. Two-pointers are easier but require more personal adaptation and self-initiation because they are usually far more contested; threes are occasionally desperation and the smallest range of error, but are often catch-and-shoot, and usually more uncontested; while free throws are lined up, uncontested, mechanical, and have a medium margin for error, but are much more premeditated and mental than the other two.

    It's really quite interesting how the act of shooting a ball through a hoop can be so different from those three areas.
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Our opponents have outscored us by a total of 12 points from the floor this year. We've made more 2 pointers than we've given up.

    We're last in the league in ft percentage and our opponents are 2nd best. That's creating a 2 point per game diffefrential right there (combined with our foul rate and the fouls we draw). Also, we're guarding the 3 averagely, but have the worst percentage ourselves, so there is a deficit there of almost 2 threes per game.
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  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    We're about 15% of the way through the season. Here is how the +/- per 100 possession stats are shaking out. I'm excluding the players with less than 12% of available playing time (i.e. out of the rotation guys).

    1. K. Singler: +4.6
    2. W. Bynum: +1.1
    3. KC Pope: -0.1
    4. J. Smith: -3.0
    5. G Monroe: -3.2
    6. C Billups: -5.8
    7. Drummond: -7.6
    8. R Stuckey: -8.1
    9. B Jennings: -8.5

    Thank goodness for Bynum and Singler as they are the only ones on the team that play winning basketball. If it wasn't for them, there's no way that we'd be only half a game out of the playoff race!

    Here is how the guys rank offensively and defensively as far as team points scored or allowed per 100 possessions when they are on the court-
    Offense-
    1. Bynum: 109.6
    2. Billups: 109.5
    3. Monroe: 109.3
    4. KC Pope: 108.7
    5. K Singler: 107.3
    6. Stuckey: 107.1
    7. Drummond: 106.3
    8. J Smith: 106.3 (tied with AD)
    9. Jennings: 102.7
    Defense-
    1. K Singler: 102.7
    2. W Bynum: 108.5
    3. KC Pope: 108.8
    4. J Smith: 109.3
    5. Jennings: 111.2
    6. Monroe: 112.5
    7. Drummond: 113.9
    8. R Stuckey: 115.2
    9. C Billups: 115.3

    So, on offense, we have one huge outlier in Jennings. Our offense is hugely worse with him than without him, which is not what you'd expect from a guy with a high scoring and no defense playing reputation. It's pretty much as expected that we score a lot with guys like Bynum and Monroe on the court. 1 through 8 are relatively tightly bunched... but that's to be as expected with Cheeks' short rotation (high correlation between players).

    On defense, we have one huge outlier in a good way. Singler's presence on the court has resulted in dramatically fewer points allowed for the team. As we all know that he's no defensive genius, it's reasonable to suspect that the reason for his crazy numbers is that we go away from the triple tower system when he's inserted. So, whenever he's in the game, we have a traditional defense and it actually functions well. Maybe Smith and Drummond's skills don't go to waste when he's out there guarding the perimeter like a normal SF. However, one other point to consider... he covers more ground per 48 minutes than any other player on the Pistons at 3.6 miles per 48. Why? Chasing defenders around the 3-point line maybe?

    As far as the rest of the crew, I'd say that Bynum is ranked higher than any of us would ever have guessed. Possible explanation is that the team is better on offense with him and is giving up fewer points off of badly missed shots, etc (offense leading to a good defense). That is the type of thing that is hard to quantify with your naked eye because it's not the result of him playing better defense than somebody else. The other big weird spot is Drummond. Lots of analysis and opinions already around here with reasons for his lack of defensive impact, despite his obvious effort and talent. I'm leaning toward the fact that he's stuck in a dysfunctional scheme that is poorly coached (mainly because he was pretty good last year).


    Conclusions:
    In year 1 of Mo Cheeks' stint as coach, he should probably give up the Smith/Monroe/Drummond combination. It either doesn't work, he can't coach, or it takes a lot of time to train big men to play in a new system. Without that trio on the floor together, some good things are happening for the team. Even if Cheeks is a bad coach, guys can play their normal positions through habit.

    To play winning basketball, start:
    Bynum
    Pope
    Singler
    Smith
    Monroe/ Drummond

    That would put 4 guys on the court than can make 3-pointers (Pope and Singler as called plays and Bynum and Smith on broken plays).

    Bring Jennings off the bench with Drummond and let AD get some lobs and clean up all of the missed 3-pointers.


    Or... just get a new coach who's interested in teaching the team how to play team basketball.
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2013
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  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Just a couple of other random stats after screwing around some more with the NBA player tracking data:

    - Brandon Jennings is 3rd in the entire NBA in time of possession behind Wall and Paul and he's only 12th in the league in touches (which is still high of course). So, the ball is sticking with him a bit and he's been the common denominator in our struggling offensive units.

    - Andre Drummond is 3rd in the league in points per touch on offense (I think behind 2 3-point shooting big men- Ryan Anderson and Bargnani?)

    - Andre Drummond is 2nd in the league in contested rebounds per game and is also 2nd in terms of rebounds per rebound opportunity (defined as being within 5 feet of the rebound I believe). So don't blame the rebounding issues on this man. DeAndre Jordan is the guy who is barely ahead of him in both of these measures.

    - As far as catch and shoot points scored per game, we only have 1 player in the top 60 in the league and that is Josh Smith at #58. He has a worse eFG than everybody ahead of him I believe. Without guys than can shoot the rock, it's tough. Jennings isn't a c&s guy, he's more of a shooter off of the dribble. KCP will hopefully turn into a shooter for us, but he's not getting it done so far.
  8. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I agree. That was funny.
  9. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    So, according to the stats, Singler and Bynum are the only two Pistons playing winning basketball? Those statisticians must not watch film frame-by-frame.
  10. The Panda

    The Panda All-Star Forum Donor

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    [​IMG]
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  11. Nemo

    Nemo The Great Predictor Forum Donor

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    There's only one room that I will make that face in...I don't want to add my TV rooms to that list.
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  12. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    [​IMG]

    Rudy is killing it. Bledsoe is off to a nice start in Phoenix.
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  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Rudy appears to be the worst guy on the chart. Oladipo is top 25 in usage? He needs to scale back it looks like. This chart is perfect for showing what an outlier lebron is.
  14. Nemo

    Nemo The Great Predictor Forum Donor

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    Good to see Isiah Thomas near the top. :)
  15. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    Stats are early, not a lot of data. But note, Stuckey is having a great year so far, and guys like Bynum and Singler are often the beneficiaries as they too are part of the bench. Stuckey makes a lot of shots, so our offense looks half way acceptable. Stuckey also forces the whole defense of the other team to pack the lane to try to stop him - and Stuckey still makes the shots. So, our defensive sets, with Stuckey scoring well, start with all five opposing players pinned near the basket, with the ball being taken out. Made shots, especially made shots where one of your guys make them pack the lane with all five of theirs, is a pretty darn good form of defense. The other team has to take the ball up the full length of the court against a well set defense.

    Watching the games, what you see is Stuckey doing great, while Singler readily gives points back by either being too small to guard an interior player, or too slow to stay with a perimeter player.
  16. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    So Lee, is it your suggestion that Singler is simply lucky to be in when we outscore opponents (as our plus minus leader) and it's a coincidence that he benefits from because the other 4 guys play to compensate for his lack of ?
  17. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    Look, its early in the season. Do not get too hung up in stats quite yet. Singler is just a bit plus so far, maybe an average of a couple of points per game. If you notice, Stuckey comes in right along beside him, and has lately been nailing shots like a machine. Yes, who you play with matters as far as your plus minus. By the time the season is over, most likely, players will have played in a variety of combinations and you can make more sense out of the data. As crazy as our rotations have been to this point, I'd wait to make any conclusions from the data. I hold to my observation that Singler is not actually helping in any way to get us plus for games, to this point.
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Coach's observations are another data point. You gotta figure that the quant team in the org have broken down the action for him. Ks was also a highly successful college player in the best program.
  19. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    The quant team = Abdenour?
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  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    They have 2 eggheads I believe.

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