The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    I was actually checking how Drums rebounding rate affected Monroes when I saw the TRG stat.

    It's possessions, not minutes. I think it's because he got 0 chances to grab a board in the possession he played with Drum so it divides by 0.
  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Oh, divides 0 by 0. You're probably right.

    I wonder if they count it as a rebounding opportunity at all when you are sharing the court with Drummond? Seems unfair since the loose ball never gets below 12 feet high.
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Stepping back for a minute...

    How accurate are box scores?
    NBA statistician admits teams really do fudge stats

    It would be interesting to have a few forumites with access to a quiet basement and a DVR track the same game, compare to each other and then to the official box score afterward.

    I'm also tempted to do a few games with some untracked stats to see what an adjusted box score would look like if it has some more things that we would ideally want:

    Examples...
    - .5 assists for every FT made following a good pass where the recipient gets fouled
    - breakout of rebounds off of free throws vs rebounds attained in the flow of the game
    - adjusted FG percentage where desperation heaves are separated out (any possession where you have to go full court in less than 5 seconds and take a wild 3-pointer)
    - assists leading to bunnies vs assists leading to contested shots that happen to get made
    - Adjust for when a guy gets his own rebound repeatedly. I'd try erasing the shot attempt and erasing the rebound like they never happened.


    Bill Simmons wrote a little article a few years ago about how he's frustrated that each team keeps stats like these and the general public never gets to see them. It almost seems as though you could start a little company that keeps these and publish them through a website. Not sure of the economic viability since you'd have to manually track up to 15 games per night. You gotta figure that if a game lasts 2.5 hours that it would probably take 3.0 with a DVR to accurately log everything that happens. So, 1 guy could do 3 per day comfortably. You'd need about 5 people to keep up with the games.
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Just some pointed sorts (filtered out players with less than 500 minutes for rankings):

    I'm going to dedicate an entire section to Drummond first of all:
    blocks per minute: 6th
    Reb/min: 5th
    OReb/min: 2nd
    PER: 11th
    eFG: 6th
    ORAT: 17th
    DRAT: 8th
    WS/min: 7th

    That just has current all-star written all over it. The only missing ingredient is "minutes".

    Tyson Chandler's ORAT and DRAT differential is crazy at 138 and 104. Drummond's 119 and 97 is only behind a few guys by a tick (Chris Paul, Durant for example).


    Bynum: 18th in the league in assists/min with 7.0 per 36. Starting point guard material? There are only 4 players in the NBA who average more assists, score more, and have a higher field goal percentage than Will Bynum. They are: Rondo, Chris Paul, Holiday, and Parker. Per 36, Bynum averages 17.5 points, 7.0 assists, and a career high .477 eFG. He's not only making Drummond better with his passes, but there is a feedback effect and Drummond is making Will's FG percentage rise by freezing the defense. I also have to give credit to the stretchers (Daye and Charlie) for creating space for Bynum to operate. Seems unbelievable that we had this guy DNP'ing all over the country for a while.


    Jerebko: 11th in steals per min. Our next best player is Drummond at around 100th. A criticism of Lawrence Frank teams is that they are too conservative on defense and that they don't create enough turnovers. Seems fitting that the guy who is the latest to be sentenced to bench jail has been the best on the team at creating turnovers. Maybe Frank was uncomfortable with perceived defensive gambling subconsciously? JJ's shooting was horrendous, but he's been good enough in the past that he should have a 2nd chance by now.


    Maggette: 12th in the league in FT/min. When we got him, that was billed as his biggest strength and the scouting report held true.


    Charlie V: 1st in the league in 3-point makes per min. If this isn't why we signed him in FA, then I don't know what was. He's doing his thing this year, he just had a lot of negative goodwill built up by the public at large. His contract is part of the reason (Joe's fault) and the rest is both that people don't respect his style (3-point happy, defensively deficient) and also the DNP's create a lasting perception that the player is a failure.


    And lastly, Ben Gordon (last year's BOT). He's currently 11th in the NBA in points/min. If that isn't why we signed him in the first place... then I don't know what was. The guy that Joe signed still exists, it's just that the coaches that Joe hired didn't respect the players that Joe signed. Think how big of a problem that is. Joe's MO is to be hand's off his coaches, but this is the consequence. Joe's 2 big FA signings were consciously ignored by the coaches that he brought in. The net result was that the organization killed the market value of 2 of its highest paid players and is going to suffer long term performance consequences as a result. Either don't sign the players or get coaches that share your philosophy. Mixing the two is very self defeating.
  5. The Panda

    The Panda All-Star Forum Donor

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    Awesome post.
    roscoe36 likes this.
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I just took the time to look up our per minute leaders for various stats (expressed per 36 because that is what is available). Some of the rankings are surprising to me and others are obvious. I'll start with the basic stats and then add in eFG%, WS/48, and ORat-DRat differential for those interested.

    Points:
    Bynum- 18.1 (surprising)
    Monroe- 17.2
    Knight- 15.8
    Charlie- 15.3 (semi surprising that he ranks this high with only 3-point makes and missed free throws... and he's been cold for a while)
    Stuckey- 14.2
    Jerebko- 14.0
    Calderon- 13.5
    Maggette- 13.3
    Drumm- 13.3
    Middleton- 13.2
    Prince- 13.0
    Daye- 12.6
    Kravtsov- 12.1
    English- 11.3
    Singler- 11.2
    Maxiel- 10.1

    Starters for most of the season in bold. Pretty nasty that we had our lowest 2 offensive output players starting every game this year.
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Rebounds:
    Drumm- 13.7 (Ridiculously good)
    Monroe- 10.4
    Maxiell- 8.2
    Charlie- 7.9
    Jerebko- 7.6
    Kravtsov- 6.8 (too low for a coordinated 7 footer with strength. Slow hands)
    A Daye- 6.5
    Prince- 5.2
    Singler- 5.1
    Knight- 3.9
    Stuckey- 3.6
    Maggette- 3.5
    Middleton- 3.4 (surprisingly low. If he's a poor man's Durant, he needs to rebound at twice this rate)
    English- 3.4
    Calderon- 3.2
    Bynum- 2.9

    This is what it is. At least Maxiell produced in this category.
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Assists:
    Calderon- 7.7 (one of the best in the league)
    Bynum- 6.7 (underrated and under appreciated passer... this would surely be higher if he had his wing man)
    Knight- 4.7
    Stuckey- 4.3
    Monroe- 3.7 (great for a C)
    Prince- 2.7
    Maggette- 2.7
    English- 2.4 (should be higher IMO)
    A Daye- 2.2
    Jerebko- 1.8
    Charlie- 1.6
    Kravtsov- 1.6
    Singler- 1.3 (WAY too low. Less effective passer as a SG than TRG is in general?)
    Middleton- 1.3
    Maxiell- 1.1
    Drumm- 0.8
  9. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Steals:
    Drumm- 1.7 (it's no fluke, he's a defensive freak!)
    English- 1.6 (surprising, supports rumor that he is a good defender)
    Jerebko- 1.6
    Bynum- 1.4
    Monroe- 1.4 (we should have the best PF/C stealing threat in the league next year)
    Calderon- 1.2
    Charlie- 1.0
    Knight- 0.9
    Stuckey- 0.9
    Singler- 0.9
    Middleton- 0.9
    Maggette- 0.8
    Kravtsov- 0.7
    Maxiell- 0.6 (Surprise to me. I would have thought he'd get a lot of picks being undersized and quick against clumsy PF's)
    Prince- 0.5
    A Daye- 0.5


    Our steal leaders are dominated by the bench. Drummond might be the catalyst, although I don't remember English or Jerebko getting much time with him.
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Blocks:
    Drumm- 3.1 (Freak... he's basically creating as much distance between himself and Maxiell as Maxiell is between the #2 spot and Bynum)
    Maxiell- 1.9
    Kravtsov- 1.4 (not what I was hoping for when we got him. He should be over 2.0)
    Charlie- 1.3
    A Daye- 0.8
    Monroe- 0.7 (we have to live with this. Maybe it will get better with him at the PF spot and Drummond putting fear into everybody)
    Singler- 0.6
    Middleton- 0.4
    English- 0.3
    Jerebko- 0.3 (way too low. Should be higher than Austin Daye)
    Stuckey- 0.3
    Maggette- 0.3
    Prince- 0.3 (the guy with the block of the century barely out blocks Bynum?)
    Bynum- 0.2
    Calderon- 0.1
    Knight- 0.1

    I'd like to get another real shot blocker on the team when we fill out our SF spot. I hear that arguments that Josh Smith isn't a good fit, but maybe we can find someone that is a little big and ultra athletic to eventually fill that important position. Singler isn't doing it for me.
  11. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Will combine all advanced stats in this post:

    eFG%:
    Kravtsov- .750 (5 pump fakes for every shot attempt works I guess)
    Calderon- .637 (pure shooter)
    Drumm- .594 (expect this to last for a decade or more!)
    A Daye- .552 (he had an incredible shooter year with us and actually made the showcase strategy work. We owe him a golf clap).
    Charlie- .490 (admit that this is pretty good- at least to yourself)
    Knight- .481
    Singler- .481
    Monroe- .480 (the good news is that he gets a fair amount of his misses and puts them back in)
    Bynum- .474
    Prince- .468
    Middleton- .453
    English- .452 (should be higher)
    Maxiell- .449 (the good news is that he's smart enough to not shoot very often. Has trouble finishing inside due to his 6'4" stature)
    Jerebko- .447 (not a good sign for him)
    Stuckey- .431 (despicably bad)
    Maggette- .388 (dreadful)

    WS/48:
    Drumm- .177 (This equates to nearly 15 wins added if he played every minute of the season... seems about right)
    Calderon- .170 (keeper IMO)
    A Daye- .106 (hopefully this was a fluke caused by hot shooting and the Drummond effect.)
    Monroe- .095
    Jerebko- .078 (surprisingly high)
    Charlie- .075 (he's coming off pretty well on paper)
    Middleton- .068 (Would be curious to see how he's producing wins in the formula. This is his best stat, which is unusual.)
    Kravtsov- .068
    Prince- .055
    Bynum- .048
    Maxiell- .047
    Singler- .043
    Stuckey- .043
    English- .039
    Knight- .026 (Yikes!!! Warning, warning.)
    Maggette- .015

    ORating minus DRating:
    Calderon: +16 (surprisingly high)
    Drumm: +15
    Middleton: +8 (now this is his best stat)
    A Daye: +6
    Monroe: -3
    Jerebko: -3
    Kravtsov: -3
    Charlie: -4
    Prince: -6
    Singler: -8
    Maxiell: -9
    Bynum: -10
    Stuckey: -10
    English: -10
    Knight: -12 (double yikes)
    Maggette: -14

    Some really bad guard play with Calderon as the shining star. I don't care if he is a weak defender after looking at all of these stats and then imagining him on the court with Drummon, Monroe, and a high draft pick next year.

    After thinking through all of this, I'm most troubled by Knight. I never had much thought that guys like Singler and Maxiell would be long term starters, so I'm ignoring their production. Knight's defense looked really good at times this year and he has some head turning offensive performances... but he's ranking behind Villanueva in almost every stat.


    This team is all about Drummond and Monroe. Calderon is older, but he's clearly a top 3 player on this team. Everybody else is bench material or will just sort of drift off into the where-are-they-now file. I really want Knight to be good... or consistently good, but not sure that it will pan out.
    The Panda likes this.
  12. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I didn't know Monroe was married.
  13. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    TaS I love this thread, but I am going to unsticky it. If it picks up again next season, we can re-sticky it.
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I didn't even know it was stickied.
  15. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I thought we traded sticky to Toronto.
  16. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Very interesting. At the very least, it makes the players more aware that they are being watched and evaluated when they don't have the ball. It also helps to avoid rewarding selfish offensive acts.

    I would also think that video game makers would love to get their hands on the movement data to make the games more realistic with speed, help defense, and all non player controlled action.
  18. The Panda

    The Panda All-Star Forum Donor

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    Do you know what is scary?

    I think we should keep Villenueva.
  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    the stats don't show it, but he's had some great workouts this summer.
    Laimbrane, roscoe36, linwood and 2 others like this.
  20. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    Huh... I stopped following this thread, but saw that nbawowy site and got a little hooked. A couple things I found...

    Team performance:
    Drummond being on the court had the following impact:
    +.035 points per possession
    +1.3 eFG
    +0.6 FG%
    -3.5 Asst.%
    +0.8 2p%
    +1.4 3p%
    -8.5 FT% (shocker...)
    +0.38 and-1s converted per 100 possessions
    - 0.7 2 point shot distance
    -2.5 opp. eFG
    -0.6 opp. 2p%
    -5.3 opp. 3p%
    +0.68 opp. 2pt distance
    -0.007 opp. points per 100 possessions
    + 4.1 opp. possessions ending in FTs

    So on the team as a whole, Drummond's squads only saw a negative result in their assist rate and their free throw percentage. And that was playing mostly with backups.

    The most notable difference was in opponent 3 point percentage. This indicates, to me, that teammates trusted Drummond behind them to get into the faces of opponents more.

    The strange thing is, though, that even though opponents scored less efficiently, they scored slightly more points per possession. Thankfully, the Pistons' offensive output significantly outweighed that. A higher FT rate partially explains this, I suppose.

    Let's look at individual performances...
    Total Rebound %: (Drummond on court/Drummond off court/Difference)

    Khris Middleton 6.7/6.6/0.1

    Brandon Knight 5.7/6/-0.3
    Rodney Stuckey 5.4/5.9/-0.5
    Kyle Singler 7.8/8.4/-0.6
    Tayshaun Prince 7.1/8.5/-1.4
    Greg Monroe 15.3/16.9/-1.6
    Will Bynum 3.5/5.6/-2.1
    Charlie Villanueva 11/13.3/-2.3
    Jose Calderon 2.3/4.8/-2.5
    Corey Maggette 4.8/7.9/-3.1
    Jason Maxiell 10.2/13.4/-3.2
    Kim English 2.9/6.5/-3.6
    Jonas Jerebko 9.2/13.4/-4.2
    Austin Daye 8.6/16.1/-7.5
    Viacheslav Kravtsov 0/12/-12

    eFG diff
    Charlie Villanueva 53.9 41.7 +12.2
    Jose Calderon 73.5 62.7 +10.8
    Tayshaun Prince 50.5 45.8 +4.7
    Rodney Stuckey 46.2 43 +3.2
    Will Bynum 50.6 47.8 +2.8
    Jason Maxiell 45.9 44.5 +1.4

    Greg Monroe 47.4 48.8 -1.4
    Khris Middleton 46.2 49.2 -3
    Kyle Singler 45.8 49.2 -3.4
    Brandon Knight 43 49.1 -6.1
    Austin Daye 53.8 60.5 -6.7
    Kim English 38.5 46.6 -8.1
    Jonas Jerebko 41.9 51.3 -9.4
    Corey Maggette 33.6 60 -26.4
    Viacheslav Kravtsov 0 71.7 -71.7

    3p% on 3p% off Diff
    Will Bynum 48.5 18.6 29.9
    Austin Daye 54.5 42.9 11.6
    Rodney Stuckey 35.4 26 9.4
    Charlie Villanueva 39.3 30.7 8.6
    Jose Calderon 60 51.6 8.4
    Kim English 31.6 25.8 5.8

    Greg Monroe 0 0 0
    Jason Maxiell 0 0 0
    Viacheslav Kravtsov 0 0 0

    Tayshaun Prince 42.9 43.6 -0.7
    Kyle Singler 34.3 35.3 -1
    Brandon Knight 33.3 37.9 -4.6
    Jonas Jerebko 20.8 33.9 -13.1
    Khris Middleton 0 33.3 -33.3
    Corey Maggette 6.7 66.7 -60

    Asst on Asst off Diff
    Viacheslav Kravtsov 20 1.8 18.2
    Rodney Stuckey 8.3 5.6 2.7
    Will Bynum 11.3 8.7 2.6
    Khris Middleton 4.8 2.7 2.1
    Andre Drummond 1.3 0 1.3
    Greg Monroe 6.6 5.3 1.3

    Brandon Knight 6.8 6.8 0
    Charlie Villanueva 2.6 2.6 0

    Corey Maggette 4 4.4 -0.4
    Tayshaun Prince 3.7 4.2 -0.5
    Kyle Singler 1.4 2 -0.6
    Jason Maxiell 1 1.7 -0.7
    Jonas Jerebko 1.8 2.8 -1
    Kim English 1.9 4 -2.1
    Jose Calderon 9.2 11.4 -2.2
    Austin Daye 2.7 5.1 -2.4

    TOV on TOV off Diff
    Khris Middleton 16 4.1 11.9
    Jose Calderon 18.4 9.9 8.5
    Austin Daye 9.9 7.1 2.8
    Greg Monroe 14 13.3 0.7
    Kim English 11.5 11.1 0.4

    Rodney Stuckey 10.5 10.7 -0.2
    Brandon Knight 13.7 13.9 -0.2
    Charlie Villanueva 6.1 7.2 -1.1
    Will Bynum 12.3 13.8 -1.5
    Kyle Singler 9.8 11.8 -2
    Jonas Jerebko 7.9 10.1 -2.2
    Tayshaun Prince 5.3 8.5 -3.2
    Jason Maxiell 2.1 13.1 -11
    Corey Maggette 10.4 22.2 -11.8
    Viacheslav Kravtsov 0 16.7 -16.7


    The stats bear out that both Bynum and Stuckey benefited immensely from Drummond's presence, and that Calderon should have played more with him.
    roscoe36 likes this.

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