The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Nah, I disliked him before then. Chicago solidified it though.

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  2. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Oops. What I said before except with this quote.

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  3. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    He's making everybody else look bad, and we can't have that.
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Really long post, so apologies in advance. Tried to show some stats with brief explanatory commentary.

    I was just curious about a few things and did some filtering and sorting (I filtered out all players with less minutes than Andre Drummond for this exercise to get rid of the low minutes skewed players with astronomical per minute stats).

    Ranking of NBA players in terms of ORating - DRating:
    1) Chandler: +40
    2) Kidd: 29
    3) CP3: 25
    4) M Gasol: 23
    5) Splitter: 22
    6) Durant: 21
    7) K. Martin: 18
    T8) LeBron, Novak: 17
    T10) Duncan, Duhon: 16
    T12) Pondexter, Landry, Amir, Ibaka, Barnes: 15
    T17) Drummond, Varejao, Kirilenko, Griffin, Bosh: 14

    Notice that on this list that most of the players tend to be on playoff teams (heavily + teams) and there are players here who are clearly benefiting from the other guys on their team- all the Knicks (Chandler, Kidd, Novak), OKC (Durant, Martin, Ibaka), etc.

    This makes it all the more amazing that Drummond pops up in the top 20 here. His team stinks and the other players on the team have negative differentials:
    Singler: 0
    Prince: -1
    Monroe: -3
    Stuckey: -6
    Maxiell: -6
    Knight: -10


    Of the 21 guys on the top list, only 6 have PERs that are higher than Drummond's 20.7-
    LeBron, Durant, C. Paul, Duncan, Chandler, and Splitter


    Just a few other lists:
    Total rebounding %
    1) Varejao
    2) Hickson
    3) Randolph
    4) Asik
    5) Drummond
    6) Duncan
    7) Humphries
    8) Faried
    9) Chandler
    10) Boozer


    There are some heavyweights on that list for sure. #11 is D. Howard. Monroes is #21. Nobody in front of Drummond on this list has a higher block rate than him.


    Block Rate:
    1) Sanders
    2) Ibaka
    3) Hibbert
    4) Lopez
    5) R Lopez
    6) Drummond
    7) Duncan
    8) Koufos
    9) Biyombo
    10) Howard



    Last table:

    This is the actual points per 48 minutes that the team has scored and also allowed with each player on the court this year. This theoretically isn't as valuable as ORat and DRat because this one allows guys to come along for the ride and not produce. However, it can be more valuable if the players are doing things that are unmeasurable, but it's hard to decipher total meaning. Also keep in mind that the average pace might be different for different players depending on who they tend to share court time with. Probably pretty small difference though.

    Player: Off/ Def/ Differential
    Austin D: 108.2/ 97.7/ +10.5 [hanging in there with an astronomical offensive rate... spacing?]
    Charlie V: 98.5/ 94.7/ +3.8 [2nd best offensive rate. Drummond shares almost all of CV's mins, so his defensive number is covered by Drum]
    Andre D: 96.2/ 95.1/ +1.1 [See all above tables]
    B Knight: 93.2/ 95.0/ -1.8 [Not bad on either side of the ball. Probably not the cause of the leak]
    K Singler: 93.8/ 95.8/ -2.0 [Same as Knight.]
    Maggette: 89.1/ 92.3/ -3.2 [worse offensive rate of anybody on team.... but best defense. Either he slows is down, or he shoots poorly and defends well]
    K English: 95.5/ 99.1/ -3.7 [defensive talent isn't showing through here- but his is the lowest sample included here]
    J Maxiell: 90.5/ 94.4/ -3.9 [It's the offense that kills us with him in the game. He has 2nd best D rate, but it doesn't make up for offensive droughts.]
    T Prince: 91.3/ 96.1/ -4.8 [Both offense and defense are below average]
    Rodney S: 92.7/ 98.2/ -5.5 [Offense is a little below average, defense is 3rd worst. His fault? Don't know]
    Monroe: 90.2/ 95.7/ -5.6 [Offense is 2nd worst on team with him in. Defense is near average, but a little worse]
    W Bynum: 90.1/ 100.6/ -10.5 [Both are horrible]
    Jerebko: 89.7/ 105.1/ -15.4 [Even worse. Somehow played himself right out of the rotation and it's easy to see why he was yanked]

    Combinations do have a lot to do with overall effectiveness. If Austin and or Charlie do stay at the top of this list with a lot more playing time while not personally performing, then I would have to start trying to figure out why. Possible reasons would be length on defense that bothers shots, allows effective zone, and works better on switches, and of course, floor spacing. I would imagine that if they weren't paired with Drummond, their defensive values would plummet. But that is what might make it a smart combination by the coach.



    My conclusion is that Drummond would be very close to being an all-star already if he were to be given 35 min/game and could sustain his production. While it's likely that he'd show fatigue this year at that minute level, I would expect him to handle it better next year and the year after with a production pick up instead of a drop off from.

    Even in limited minutes, he is the heart of the team in many ways due to the needed skills that he is bringing to the table. He's making guys who appear to be very weak defenders have positive differentials because he plays defense for them. On offense, his 2nd highest offensive rebound rate in the league gets these guys the ball back and gives them mulligans on the only thing that they do well- score.
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  5. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    I think you hit the nail on the head with this comment. Drummond is great because he changes opponents' game plans. They can't drive into the lane, because he's there to alter shots. He's basically a taller version of Ben Wallace.

    The downside is that he's not a great offensive player (yet?). So in order to maximize the team's ability on offense, he needs to be paired with guys that can drive and/or hit from the outside. Villanueva is a purely offensive player, while Drummond is a purely defensive player. Like Laurel and Hardy, their polar opposite idiosyncrasies work well together. Drummond covers up for Villanueva on the defensive end, while CV can pull larger defenders out to the perimeter, giving Dre space to work. Put Monroe in and it mucks that all up; Monroe likes to be in the paint, and it's obvious that Drummond has no idea what to do when Greg drives to the basket.* (It's why I think the Pistons should go all-in for Kevin Love if that ever becomes an option, because he'd be an absolutely PERFECT compliment to Drummond). It was painful to watch them play against Toronto, because the Raptors bigs just clogged the lane when they were both in there.

    Here's a good way to look at it - he makes the second unit a viable unit pretty much all by himself. If you were to run out a group that included Stuckey, Maggette, Daye, CV, and Krav, they'd be absolutely terrible defensively and the team would get run out of the gym. But by adding Drummond into that mix, all of the sudden you can legitimately go 10 deep. At this point, maybe his impact on the bench is much more significant than his impact on the starting unit would be.

    I'm torn; I like Monroe. I think he can be a valuable piece on a championship team, and Drummond is still really, really raw. But as they say, you buy low and sell high, and I think Monroe is about as high up as he can go. If I'm Dumars, and someone comes calling for him, I listen. I wouldn't put him on the trade block, but if another team's interested, I would definitely consider getting value from him while the value is high.

    I keep coming back to team balance - Drummond is capable of being a Tyson Chandler/Ben Wallace/Sergei Ibaka type of guy that patrols the paint and alters team attack plans. When you have a guy like that, it makes the rest of your team a better defensive one. Drummond offers a number of pieces that the team lacks, all rolled into one. He's leading the team in a whole bunch of per-minute categories...

    And he's just scratching the surface of his potential - that's what's mind-boggling about the whole thing.

    I do think Frank has better insight into this kid than we do, and that's why I give him the benefit of the doubt on Andre's minutes - Drummond always seems to me like the type of guy that wants to just go out there and have fun. I believe that personality will make him a superstar someday, but as a 19-year-old kid, it's a habit you want to allow only in moderation. To his credit, Drummond appears to be taking things seriously right now, and that's good. All indications are that he's working hard, and that's good. We all know that we have to be patient, but when we see a team this bad and a single shining beacon of hope, it's hard to not run toward it.

    *Note: I'm not saying the two can't work together, but that chemistry will take time to gel and it simply is not as natural as Drummond and CV.
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  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    It's tempting to think of offensive players as those who score. However, it is interesting if you step back and think of it like offense in football. Is Jake Long a great offensive football player? He doesn't throw the ball or catch the ball, but in terms of offensive impact, he's one of the best.

    With Drummond, I never get the feeling that we are handicapped on offense with him in the game. In fact, I feel the opposite.

    Reasons that Drummond is one of our better offensive players:
    1) he gets offensive boards at a higher rate than anyone except Varejao. Giving the team a 2nd try is highly valuable. It's gotta be worth more than 2 points b/c a normal possession is nearly worth that and on offensive boards, there are often easy put back chances.
    2) he converts his offensive rebounds into points at an extremely high rate. How many times has he dunked off of other players' misses this season? It's almost high signature move.
    3) he provides an outlet from every single player on the team that gets the ball in the paint. If they are stuck, they know he's there and they can dump it off to him. They can also drive with the intention of passing him the ball or alley ooping it to him Bynum style.
    4) because of #3, he constantly freezes up the other team's shotblocker in the paint as they both have to keep him from getting a pass and also box him out. This allows our guards and even guys like Monroe to drive all the way to the basket without as much chance of resistance. Dre makes them pick their poison.
    5) He ignites fast breaks with defensive rebounds, shot blocks, and steals. He then runs well and becomes part of the breaks. He catches and finishes well on the break.
    6) Big, fast, and strong pick setter. For some reason, he never fouls when setting them either. While he doesn't get many feeds on the roll, he does use P&R's to get free lanes to the rebound.
    7) He plays defense without fouling and holds opposing teams to a low FG%. When teams shoot free throws, their defense gets back and set afterward. When they don't, there are transition opportunities off of missed shots (whether Dre gets the board or not).
    8) He draws fouls. The current way that we use him at the end of the 1st Q is not smart. Put him in early to start getting toward the bonus. Every foul that gets us toward the bonus has value because it will result in another player getting to the line later when they otherwise wouldn't. Most of the fouls that he draws are when he is fighting for rebounds or right after he gets an offensive rebound.


    Most of these points could be argued for guys like Varejao, Chandler, McGee, and other shot blocking, rebounding bigs.
  7. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    I would like to add that Dre has a really soft touch with the ball. In a few years his offense will surprise a lot of people. He has the potential to be a much better offensive player than Chandler.

    Btw, great posts people!
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  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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  9. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    For Centers, here is where the Pistons' bigs rank in the league:

    Steals per 48 minutes
    1) Greg Monroe: 2.12
    2) A Varejao: 1.97
    3) A Drummond: 1.96


    Steals per personal foul
    1) Greg Monroe: 0.55
    2) Varejao: 0.54
    3) Noah: 0.51
    4) Drummond: 0.41


    On offense, Monroe turns it over a lot, but also has an unusually high number of assists.

    There are only 2 centers who get more minutes than Drummond who turn it over less- Koufos, Chandler, and Jefferson.

    Incredible from a 19 year old to block shots and steal the ball at such a high volume with such a low foul rate. And to not turn it over on offense?



    I honestly think that Monroe complements Drummond as much as any other big man in the league would.


    Just some more Monroe stats:
    Monroe has taken more free thows this year than any other center, except for Dwight Howard.

    Monroe has more assists than any other center except for Noah. Marc Gasol is tied with him in fewer games played however.

    I believe that Monroe is 4th in the league in points in the paint this year according to an ESPN graphic. Lebron is #3 and I know that David Lee is in front of him. Can't remember then other.

    Monroe is 2nd in the league at C in field goals made, behind only Jefferson. However his FG% is really bad, so maybe he shouldn't be taking so many attempts.
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  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Exploring the +/- figures a little more. Using the 1st WAS game as the starting point since that is where the bench mob was solidified (Bynum + Daye + Villanueva + Drummond).

    BK: +5
    KS: +36
    TP: -12
    JM: -8
    GM: -2
    _____

    WB: +32
    RS: +5 (missed most of the games)
    AD: +78
    CV: +61
    Drum: +35

    Even with a 100-68 route over Washington where they were all between +12 and +26 and only 1 double OT loss, the majority of our starters have been in the negative as a whole over this period. BK neg in 4 out of 6. TP neg in 4 out of 6. JM neg in 3 out of 6. GM neg in 3 out of 6.

    On the bench unit, Bynum's worst game has been a -1. Daye's worst game has been a +3. Villanueva has one game below a +8, and that was a -3 vs MIL. Drummond has 1 game in the red with a -7 against WAS the 2nd time we played them.

    The part I wanted to explore more was Singler's +36 though. It stands out vs the rest of the starters and I wanted to see if diving deeper revealed anything useful.


    I looked at his +/- in these games a) with the starting unit, b) with mixed units, and c) with the bench core of WB, Daye, Villa, and Drum.

    a) +13
    b) -16
    c) +40

    * I'm off by one when you add them all up, so I probably missed a mini +/- stint somewhere, like if he was inserted for 1 possession.

    I guess the only thing unusual about that is that the performance of the fully in tact 1st unit is actually better than performance of the individual members of it when you combine all of their figures. Frank has been doing a log of staggering instead of full on substitutions, especially at the end of the 2nd quarters and in the 4th quarters. Maybe his staggering lineups where he is trying to combine 1st unit and 2nd unit guys is causing problems due to the contrast in styles and inability for a mixed unit to play either way?

    That could make some sense. In last night's game for example, there was some weird combo's in the 4th quarter during our collapse (due to CV being ejected).

    Singler started the quarter with Knight at PG, Daye at SF, Monroe at PF, and Drummond at C. After 3:40 in, Bynum subbed in for Knight, and Maxiell subbed in for Monroe. After another couple minutes, Tay subbed in for Daye. It was just a bit of a mish mosh of styles.

    The wheels came off when we had in:

    Bynum
    Singler
    Daye
    Maxiell
    Drummond

    How is Will supposed to get into the paint with Maxiell and Drummond there? Works much better when Villanueva is standing at half court and capable of knocking it down and Drummond is setting a screen at the 3-point line for him.

    I know this one is a tiny example with an insignificant sample size, but just showing one case that may the reason for the bad mojo when the starters and bench have been mixed over the last 6 games. Might be better to go for a sudden full scale substitution. Could be more jarring for the other teams to deal with as well.
  11. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Drummond is never passed the ball (except on alley oop slams). That is why he has a low turnover rate. That being said, even if they did pass it to him, I don't think he would turn it over much. He seems to have a habit of picking off one pass per game and taking it the length of the floor by himself for a slam.
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    It is obvious that everybody got the memo not to pass him the ball in the post. That move he had last night where he faced up and then somehow 2-hand dunked it was amazing. So explosive.

    It's not like Monroe has post moves, but he is more artful in the way that he bulls in toward the basket. That's probably the Shaq school of offense that Drummond should be working on too. Just find a way to slowly bump the defender into the restricted circle and then go up strong.
  13. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Whenever Dre ends up with the ball down low, he plays very smart. He's patient and takes what the defense gives him. Maybe not yet, but he'll be our best post player before the season is over.
  14. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    There was a play last night where Drummond had his man on his back 6' from the hoop calling for the ball and he wasn't even faked a pass.

    I feel like if Drummond started shooting 16-18' J's now he'd be hitting them by seasons end.
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  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    If Drum had Charlie's shooting touch, he'd be a handful.
  16. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    It's funny watching your transformation from critic to believer.
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    This is a very technical paper. However, the issues that it deals with are interesting.

    We have touched on some of the concepts in these threads when we try to understand shooting efficiency and why a super selective player's .550 eFG might not be as good as a volume shooter's .500 eFG for the team.

    Basically, when you get the ball passed to you in the NBA, you have to make a quick decision (or long one if you are Tayshaun Prince) as to whether it is better to take a shot/ drive or pass the ball. The later it is on the shot clock, the worse the expected value of passing the ball becomes, so the lower the value of the shot that you should take yourself becomes. To the extreme, imagine that you get the ball with 1 second left. You can either pass the ball or take a running hook shot from half court to avoid being blocked by Andre Drummond. While the hook shot is horrible, it is still your best option and you should take it. At every point in the shot clock and for every level of openness and personnel configuration, there is a right answer on whether to shoot or pass.

    Just a tidbit:
    http://www.justinmrao.com/goldman_rao.pdf

    [​IMG]
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  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Just thinking about Win Shares/min and whether or not it is a good measure to rank players.

    If you look at who tops the list, you might be convinced that it is:

    1) Chris Paul
    2) Kevin Durant
    3) Lebron James
    4) Tyson Chandler
    5) Kobe Bryant
    6) Tim Dunacn
    7) M. Gasol
    8) Tiago Splitter
    9) James Harden
    10) Tony Parker
    11) Blake Griffin
    12) Carmelo Anthony
    13) Chris Bosh
    14) Manu Ginobili
    15) Andre Drummond
    16) Serge Ibacka
    17) Brooks Lopez
    18) Zach Randolph
    19) David Lee
    20) Kyle Lowry

    I would say that the 2 surprises on this list are Splitter and Drummond. The Spurs also seems to be disproportionately represented, so that makes Splitter more suspicious.

    However, he seems very similar to Drummond in that he generally has come off the bench and averages just over 20 minutes per game. He has a TS% of .626 with a usage rate just under 20% (with 20% being a players average usage since they are always part of a 5 man unit). His career PER in 3 seasons is 19.0 and his stats seem to be trending consistently upward, especially WS/min.

    It's also interesting that the Spurs have 4 players inside the top 14 and 2 of them are bench players. Since win shares measure a player's impact on wins supposedly, it makes sense that the guys who show up on this list for the Spurs aren't all sharing the court at the same time, because their individual contributions would be redundant and they would suffer in this stat. But maybe Popovich is onto something by balancing out his units and always having stars surrounded by the appropriate number of role players (instead of packing the court with stars and then subbing in role players for them).

    Frank has stumbled upon a similar formula with the Pistons where Bynum/ Stuckey/ Daye/ Villanueva/ and Drummond create a lack of drop off when the bench comes in. If most of these guys were in our starting lineup, they would have to sacrifice their games by taking less shots and trying to fit in with the style of the starting unit.

    If you're convinced by the list above, here is the way that it trickles down to the rest of the NBA (I'm showing our players and some former ones for perspective).

    40) Amir (lower PER than his time with Detroit, so appears sustainable)
    58) Charlie V (exact same PER as his last year in Milwaukee! So, maybe sustainable off the bench)
    79) Daye (absolutely not sustainable due to his .600 3-point percentage)
    145) Monroe (absolutely not an all-star. Joe Johnson and Paul Gasol are the only 2 recent all-stars that I can find with worse WS/min)
    166) Sheed
    177) Tay
    200) Stuckey
    218) Afflalo
    233) Delfino
    237) Mayo (would have expected his to be higher due to his hot start this year)
    244) Maxiell
    247) Rip
    248) Kwame
    251) Ben Gordon
    262) Jerebko
    263) Singler
    272) Bynum
    304) Knight (yikes. The formula must not like low assists and high turnovers).


    Biases are similar to +/- biases in that a bench player will seem better than a starter if they are the same talent wise since they face inferior competition on average.


    If Drummond had these exact same stats as a starter this season, I would be advocating him for all-star consideration. He's the top ranking center in the East in WS/min, which is pretty ridiculous. Only M Gasol is ahead of him in the entire league. He's on a serious list with Chris Paul, Lebron James, Durant, and Kobe.


    *One guy I cut from the list due to lack of minutes is Greg Smith from Houston. He is having a very good year so far in limited minutes. I don't know much about him. He looks like a left eye shooter though, which I'm not a big fan of.
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  19. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    This is pretty cool.
    nbawowy.com

    My first findings when trying it (and written while testing it which explains the red thread and unreadability of the paragraph!):

    Monroe have a higher eFG% playing with Drum (Drum has played 273 possessions of his 1325 with Monroe) than without but Drummonds decrease quite abit. This is because he plays more with Knight than Bynum while playing with GM than not (his eFG% slighly increase when playing with GM and without BK but the sample size is only 94 possessions) . His eFG% is the highest when playing with Bynum (it's actually as high when playing with Bynum and Stuckey together as with Bynum and a stretch 2 but the usage rate goes down abit) at 63.8% and plummets to 52.2% when playing with Knight.

    Second findings:

    Krakatov boards:

    [​IMG]
    .
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Pretty cool. That actually could be a good tool to quantify rebound stealing too since you can see how much a players rebounding suffers when he's paired with other guys.

    Pretty funny on TRG's rebounding rates. I'm assuming that he snagged 1 offensive rebound and 1 defensive rebound in less than 30 seconds and his minutes rounded down to 0.

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