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Breaking News The Brandon Exchange: Pistons acquire Brandon Jennings

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by jayborne, Jul 30, 2013.

  1. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    I like this deal. Jennings D bugs me a little but otherwise I've always liked him.

    Spare me the stats, Jennings can play fast and shoot off the dribble. He's competitive.

    Both Jennings and his team have played really well at times, often at the same time.


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  2. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I am pumped about this, I have always like Jennings game. He plays fast. We need that with our fast athletic bigs.

    I was a huge Knight fan even when everyone was ready to give up on him. But this is an upgrade and I don't see much downside in that contract either. I wish Brandon a ton of luck in Milwaukee, I'd love for him to have a great career and be a guy we second guess trading in the future.

    KGREG must be over the moon.

    Man, I am excited about our team.
     
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  3. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm not sure how you look at this deal and somehow conclude that it means that Andre Drummond can't start.

    What do people think is going to happen to him if he starts? Is he going to catch fire?


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  4. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Jennings-Billups-Smith-Moose-Drummond is our starting 5 now.
     
  5. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    It's going to be weird watching someone dribble up the court without stumbling.


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  6. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I agree.
     
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Here is a look at Jennings' top 10 games point-wise. I think it gives a realistic look at what to expect from him when he's on:

    Mn/Pt/ast/to/3p/fga
    40/ 35/ 6/ 4/ 5/ 24
    44/ 34/ 6/ 3/ 2/ 22
    48/ 34/ 7/ 3/ 3/ 26
    38/ 33/ 8/ 1/ 4/ 21
    44/ 31/ 5/ 5/ 1/ 26
    42/ 31/11/ 4/ 4/ 18
    43/ 31/10/ 5/ 6/ 16
    37/ 30/ 8/ 5/ 0/ 20
    30/ 30/ 6/ 2/ 5/ 19
    36/ 30/ 4/ 4/ 4/ 16

    Average of top 10 games:

    40.2 minutes
    31.9 points
    7.1 assists
    3.6 turnovers
    3.4 three point makes
    20.8 field goal attempts
    1.53 points per shot attempt

    I'm pleasantly surprised at the volume of 30+ point games. Maybe Joe is concerned of the potential log jam in the paint and wanted to get a PG that does all of his scoring from the perimeter. If that is the case, he found his man I would say.

    He only had one game in there with double digit free throws, which is a result of his perimeter oriented game.

    He shoots a ton and makes them at a pretty decent rate, especially from distance. 3 deep ones per game will help stretch the defense, especially if he has a SG partner with range (i.e. Pope instead of Stuckey). His points per shot attempt in these 10 games (obviously cherry picked) is very strong. It's a good sign that this sample doesn't have any super inefficient performances where he appears to have ball hogged it.

    The turnovers in these top 10 games are a little higher than I would have expected.

    The other thing that jumps out to me are the minutes. Dude can log some time on the court it appears. It doesn't really matter who our backup PG is if they are only going to get 8 minutes per game.
     
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  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Here is a huge red flag:

    With Jennings on the court last year, the Bucks were pretty miserable with a -4.7 point differential per 100 possessions.

    With him off the court, they were ridiculously good with a +7.3 point differential.

    But here is the really interesting point... none of the other 17 players who played for the Bucks last year had a positive number when they were off the court. Here are the only other cases of it in the league last year and they aren't even meaningful. Derrick Williams was closest with a +0.0 while everyone else on the Wolves was negative. JJ Hickson was +0.2 for the Blazers and everybody else was negative. Valanciunas was +0.1 on the Raps while the rest were negative. Kevin Seraphin was +0.2 for the Wiz while the rest were negative. These are all guys that were barely positive on teams with a bunch of guys barely negative. Jennings has the biggest different between himself and the next closest player on the team in the league (in a bad way).
    Milwaukee Bucks NBA stats and data from 82games.com

    The opposite phenomenon is with Lebron James and the Heat (i.e. he was the only player on the team to have a negative off-court figure... indicating that the team suffered without his presence and that when anybody else was off the court instead of him, they did fine). Jennings might be the anti-Lebron.


    Is it possible that Jennings' defense is that horrific? His offense doesn't appear to be inefficient enough to cost the team anything. Or maybe they only take him off the court in blowout situations and Milwaukees garbage time unit is legendary?

    This is the most negative "advanced" stat that I can find on the guy.
     
  9. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    Yes and No. This hampers our ability to get Lala Melo in the off season :crying:
     
  10. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Don't give up. Don't ever give up. (Just take it to your little LaLa thread please.)
     
  11. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    TaS what does his bottom 10 look like?
     
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'll just give the averages to save a little effort (I cut out 2 low minute games of 17 and 6 minutes since those weren't his doing):

    33.5 minutes
    5.9 points
    5.3 assists
    1.7 turnovers
    0.7 three point makes
    11.2 field goal attempts
    0.52 points per shot attempt

    The good news is that when he's having a bad game, he still seems to get his assists in proportionately and does better on the ast/tov ratio.

    Keep in mind that most guys will look foolish with this test (bottom 10 games). But not all guys will look like all starts with their top 10.

    In the top 10 games that I highlighted, the Bucks were 6-4. In these bottom 10, they were 2-8. More good news is that the quality of the competition was better in his top 10 than in his bottom 10 (indicating that its more about him than the defense). More road games and against better defenses on average.

    Top 10 opponents
    @CHI
    IND
    @BRK
    @PHI
    SAS
    BRK
    @GSW
    @POR
    @DET
    @MIA

    Bottom 10 opponents:
    DEN
    @IND
    DAL
    BOS
    @CHI
    WAS
    CLE
    OKC
    @WAS
    @HOU


    Detroit played the Bucks 4 times last year, so let's look at the head to head:

    Game 1 (12/30/12, at Detroit)
    Detroit wins 96-94
    BJ: 9 points, 4 ast, 1 tov, 6 rebs, 0 steals. Shot 3-12 (.250). + 4 for the game. (anemic)
    BK: 11 points, 3 ast, 4 tov, 3 rebs, 0 steals. Shot 4-12 (.333). -5 for the game. (anemic)

    Game 2 (1/11/13, at Milwaukee)
    Detroit wins 103-87
    BJ: 15 points, 1 ast, 0 tov, 3 rebs, 2 steals. Shot 5-13 (.385). -14 for the game. (below ave)
    BK: 20 points, 5 ast, 0 tov, 4 rebs, 2 steals. Shot 7-16 (.438). +28 for the game. (above ave)

    Game 3 (1/29/13, at Detroit)
    Bucks win 117-90
    BJ: 30 points, 6 ast, 2 tov, 2 rebs, 1 steal. Shot 11-19 (.579). +10 for the game. (great)
    BK: 10 points, 3 ast, 4 tov, 0 rebs, 1 steal. Shot 3-8 (.375). -12 for the game. (anemic)

    Game 4 (2/9/13, at Milwaukee)
    Detroit wins 105-100
    BJ: 26 points, 7 ast, 3 tov, 2 rebs, 3 steals. Shot 8-27 (.296). -8 for the game. (inefficient game)
    BK: 4 points, 4 ast, 1 tov, 3 rebs, 2 steals. Shot 2-13 (.154). +0 for the game. (anemic/ inefficient)


    They each had 1 good game against each other and did it on the road. I'd say that in the other games, they were sub par to terrible.

    At least Jennings has an excuse though as he was guarded by a solid defender with a rim protector behind him. Maybe Sanders spooked Knight as well.
     
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  13. jayborne

    jayborne Bench Warmer

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    From what I remember reading and occasionally seeing is Brandon Jennings' problems on defense are related to positioning. Can too frequently do the "Iverson" and over play his man or passing lanes so he can go for the steal.

    Offensively, my biggest concern isn't the mid-range shooting. That wouldn't matter as much if he could finish at the rim. He's not going to get bigger, so he needs to get better down there. Develop a floater or stutter step, something. He's young and talented, it's possible.

    He is an upgrade over Knight and probably solidifies a playoff spot. I don't love the moves the team has made or the direction I fear they're heading in, but they are going to entertaining. I will watch again. Finally.
     
  14. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm trying to talk myself in to this but it seems like subtraction by addition.
     
  15. del

    del Team Captain Forum Donor

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    I belive in the longer term this is maybe a sideways move, possibly even a backwards one. With his work ethic, I figured Knight had the potential to be at least as good as Jennings and possibly better. In addition, we are losing a potential solid backup SG and Slava. However, I understand we are taking "the known" over "the unknown" and avoiding another potential Stuckey.

    The other reason I see this as a sideways move is that I do not see Jennings being the PG on a championship winning team - the ultimate goal. Adding Smith to a frontcourt of Dre/Monroe is more of an addition towards this goal. I don't see Jennings fitting or playing second fiddle to a SG in the backcourt, and we need a stud at one of those positions and he is not a stud PG and I do not project him to be. BK wasn't either, but at least he was a cheaper stop-gap.

    At the very least though, maybe he adds more Ws to the column in the next two years as our front court gains experience (hopefully in playoffs each years) and then it makes us a more viable place for talent in his expiring year, meaning we end up with that stud PG/SG.

    Looks like the starting lineup is:

    Jennings, Billups, Smith, Monroe, Drummund


    Then my guess at rotations assuming Datome impresses:

    Jennings, Stuckey, Datome, Smith, Monroe

    Stuckey, Pope, Singler, BoT, Drummond


    After writing that down, I think we definitely should be a playoff team with each rotation providing 2 players to stretch with outside shooting (BoT is still a threat even if he is BoT), at least one cutter and good balance of scoring and defence.
     
  16. Nemo

    Nemo Fantasy-Football Snub Forum Donor

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    Jennings could be the missing piece.
    Now...more than ever...it's up to the new coach to make this work.
    ...and keep Stuckey in street clothes.
     
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  17. raxrets

    raxrets Team Captain

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    It's time to find backup no 5. probably one of washed vets for minimum-like contract.
     
  18. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    I don't like this trade. The optimistic part of me is usually successful at cramming down my pessimistic side, but this one feels like AI all over again.

    In other news, if they don't extend Monroe an offer next year, they should have enough money to court Lebron. Jennings/Pope/Lebron/Smith/Drummond looks like a really good starting five to me. (Yeah, it will never happen. You can't take away my dreams.)
     
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  19. armygirl

    armygirl Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    I like the move. Chauncey's influence on BJ will be made apparent early on. BJ had no veteran mentor ship in Milwaukee, he played what should have been his college year overseas. This may certainly be his year with the addition of Cheeks and the vet leadership of CBill.
     
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  20. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    I'd REALLY like to see Pope rise above Billups.
    I'd like to see KCP go into training camp as the starter with the understanding that it's his job to lose if Chauncey out-plays him.
     

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