Rotations, part... Joe D: Jennings isn't guaranteed a starter job

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by mikhail1973, Aug 7, 2013.

  1. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    This PER stuff has gotten me to thinking. Old Pistons, how are they doing in PER. Lets do a what if. Lets say Dumars did not give up on guys. Like Amir. A far better player than JMAX. Gave up on him. Whatever excuse, he gave up on the guy. Amir had a better PER vs. his opponents last season, even on his poor team, Toronto. Defino, at shooting guard, had an amazing PER differential of 15 / 10. And we gave up on Daye, who had an opposing PER of 7 at small forward. Rip also, at shooting guard, had a 7 for opposing shooting guard.

    Conversely, JMAX last year had one of the worst, if not the worst, differential in PER at power forward you can get. Not as bad at CV, but pretty darn close. (But note, JMAX has a decent opposing PER at both center and power forward. So he can defend / harass his counterpart, but he does zilch himself. While CV does zilch and gives up the world.)

    Surprisingly, we had 6 guys on the roster last year who by PER typically won their head to head mathups with their counterparts on the other team. Stuckey, Knight, Daye (the best by far), Prince (pretty decent), Monroe, Drummond. In addition, we had JJ positive at small forward. And Kravtsov just barely negative at center. (Yeah, poor sample size for sure.) My point - we should have been winning games. Theoretically, a rotation somewhat like this should have gotten us into the playoffs:

    Start Stuckey, Daye, Prince, Monroe, Drummond

    2nd unit) Knight, (Daye or Prince staying on with the 2nd unit), JJ, (Drummond or Monroe staying on with the 2nd unit), Kravtsov.

    What we got instead? The utter non-sense of Stuckey playing out of position at shooting guard. Guys like Bynum and CV playing who can't match up with anyone. Singler, who continually plays losing basketball in relation to his opposing player. And JJ, playing too much power forward. Throw in some injured Corey Maggette, an injured Calderon, and our defense was even worse. We lost from poor choices Dumars made of who he put on the team, and we lost because of a coach who seemingly could care less about ever winning games. Remember, it was Stuckey who got coach to play him off the bench, giving us a small chance at least of winning a game now and then. But it was Daye, always Daye, who should have come into the starting unit at shooting guard, not Singler. Who cares if Daye was in a shooting slump - he was always outplaying the opposing player. I do have him out of position at shooting guard in this rotation, but from my observations, he even better at winning his matchups there than at small forward. His defense is just that good, and you put him at shooting guard and hey, he towers over opposing shooting guards on offense.

    Back to my original theme of this post. Lets say Dumars did not get rid of guys by announcing to the league that players were free to good homes as he so much likes to do. We should have never let Billups go, and really, you like defense, keep a guy like Rip Hamilton for sure. Our team could be:

    Billups, Stuckey, Afflalo, Delfino, Prince, Daye, Monroe, Amir, Drummond. Who knows who else would be on the team. We would never have missed the playoffs, so it would be doubtful if we ever had guys like Monroe or Drummond. There is a silver lining to everything I guess, but why lose season after season to get somewhere. Win, win, and win some more. Then trade players away for others. Trade value goes straight up for winners.

    But to my point. We let Afflalo go? And kept Gordon? We let a guy like Amir go, who plays D? and have ended up keeping a total non - defender around in CV? We let Delfino go, just as he was getting 100% after the knee surgery - why - some malarchy about he had had 3 years to prove himself.
     
  2. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    As you know, I point out how bad Stuckey is at getting past picks on a near continuous basis when I talk about Pistons at all. But I will disagree that point guard matchups don't matter. Beating the opposing point is a big deal. Especially, when like Stuckey, you can do it just about every night. The two points know its a contest, one both points take seriously. A game within a game. And a lot of times, the winner of that game is also the winner of the game.
     
  3. Nemo

    Nemo Fantasy-Football Snub Forum Donor

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    Based on Lee's theories, it would be interesting to know the Piston's record broken down with Stuckey at point guard -vs- shooting guard.
    My issue is that he doesn't get very many assists. Instead, he prefers to become crash Charlie..............He's not making those around him better.
     
  4. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    I believe that there was a stretch last year (the very beginning of Magic-lite?) where Stuckey did OK as a backup point. I suppose wouldn't be averse to him playing there if the Pistons had no other options and there was a clear role for him.

    They would just have to ride out his inconsistent streaks like they'll have to do with some other bench guys. He is a basket case though which makes his cold spells tougher to take.
     
  5. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    With 4 more effective point guards (Jennings, Billups, Bynum and Siva) on the roster, it makes no sense whatsoever to ever play Stuckey at point guard. Actually, it makes no sense whatsoever to even play Stuckey, but that's another matter...
     
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  6. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    Should we be criticizing the Pistons more for picking up Stuckey's contract?

    His expiring only seems to have value if it is included in a deal for Monroe and not on its' own. CG's deal offers the same thing.

    We can daydream about all this flexibility the Pistons have, but they're never going to be able to get something for both these guys.

    They got Jennings via trade and didn't move on of these guys!


    Sent from the new and improved Tapatalk 2.
     
  7. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Yeah, I mean, look at the Miami Heat....
     
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  8. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    Yes, look at Miami, one of the only 3 teams of the 16 playoff bound teams who had point guards that did not outdo their counterpart in PER last season. One, Jennings, he is our problem now. But Jennings was just barely below even. And his team did not make the playoffs by much. No real puzzle there.

    Miami. Sure, the opposing point got a PER of 15.5 vs. Chalmers. Average. Chalmers himself just got a PER of 13.7, but of course, he has superstars on the team hogging the PER. But its still about PER. Miami wins hands down in the PER war. Wade does a 26.3 / 12, while James does a 29/12.7. So sure, you have exceptions.

    Melo hogs the PER war for NY, a combined (sf and pf) 23/13. NY's point guards all lose the PER battle, simply because both Kidd and Felton are horrid at defense. So sure, there are exceptions to everything.

    But if the Pistons played a bunch of players who all won their PER battles for the year, no, you can not find a way that they would be out of the playoffs. You can argue that they would have done worse if Bynum for instance, had not played. While I will argue we would have been a whole lot better with Bynum not any part of the team. Argue all you want, since its all speculation anyway, but PER and opposing PER is worth looking at. PER shows what you are contributing, and opposing PER shows what the other guy is managing to contribute while getting tired trying to guard you. (and how effectively you are pestering the other guy.)

    Meanwhile, tell me if the Brooklyn team is better for having a point guard like Williams who does a 21.2 / 14.7. Or Oklahoma with Westbrook doing a 24.2 / 14.5. Or how about Paul, doing a 27.9 /15.6, does he not make the Clips a better team? Its not just about what the point guard does to make his team better. Defense is a big part of it, and what you can do on offense to exhaust your opposing point guard.

    And I will throw in Parker, 23.7 / 13.1
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2013
  9. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    We don't need to get anything for them. Unless a player we want in our future is part of the trade the best course of action is to simply let their contracts expire and sign whoever we want in free agency.
     
  10. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Or the season before. Or the season before that.

    Three straight finals appearances, 2 titles.

    I am sure it is just an outlier.

    That has happened 3 times in a row...
     
  11. coynejeremy

    coynejeremy All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I would rather make the playoffs by a little then not make them by a lot. With Stuckey at point we miss the playoffs by a lot.
     
  12. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I think the recent conversation here about Stuckey illustrates the point I made on facebook about technical analysis, and the danger of analyzing anything "frame by frame" because what you're looking at excludes the component of time, and instead tries to break down time into a series of snapshots. The game isn't played as a series of snapshots.

    Statistically, someone can make an argument for Stuckey. The same arguments were made for other players, Daye, Darko etc.

    Those of us who watch the games at normal speed can see the deficiency in Stuckey's game and it's a critique that he had coming out of college. He simply doesn't see the floor well.

    So while he may put up impressive numbers INDIVIDUALLY @ PG, he's not filling the role of a PG. And he can't play SG because he is not actually a shooter.

    I would argue that Stuckey's better numbers at the point come at the expense of the team. Some guys can run a team, and some guys cannot. Stuckey has never shown he can run an NBA offense.

    Bynum on the other hand may have poorer individual numbers, but he makes the players around him better.

    If Jennings can make our other players better while only posting Mario Chalmers-esque numbers, I can live with that all season long.
     
  13. Nemo

    Nemo Fantasy-Football Snub Forum Donor

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    With Flip as our coach...we made the playoffs by a lot.....
     
  14. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    Stuckey, as we all know, tends to drive in with his head down, but yet, he can't have gotten a 22 PER as a point guard without dishing a lot of assists during his time at point. He also tends to draw fouls, when he plays the point. Which can help soften the interior a bit.

    As far as "us people" who watch the game in normal time. I watch all the games in normal time. Later, I study them, often in frame by frame to ensure I don't miss certain things. And to check my observations out from the first time I watched the game.

    Still, you say the game is not a series of snapshots. Technically, hey, it is. A bunch of individual decisions that all mesh together. No player is worth a darn unless he can focus on the moment, and make the right play at the right time. And he has to do that every moment he is in the game.

    More on Stuckey. You seem to scough at the idea that Stuckey helps our interior D. But he does. Often. There are a lot of scramble plays for a loose ball, and having guys with some size sure helps in stopping the other team from scoring if they come up with the ball near the hoop. Stuckey's size also helps on switches. Overall, he is a pretty decent player. One with his definite faults for sure, but still a decent player. Lets see just how much you like Jennings when we all get a good look at how he plays. I am hoping for the best, but remember again, and even though you don't hold much stock in the PER stat, Jennings did not typically win his individual matchups vs. the opposing point guard. Both Knight and Stuckey did.

    One more thing. I know you like Bynum, but what I see is a guy who typically does not play team ball. I typically notice a breakdown in our offense, which gets worse every minute Bynum is out there. A typical Bynum possesion is to dribble the ball to no point, and then hot potato it to someone who is in no position to do anything with the ball. Setting up plays, that is a rare thing for Bynum. Yeah, it happens on occasion, but not near often enough.
     
  15. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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    Small sample size.
     
  16. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    That was happening wether they picked up his option or not. Instead of eating his $4.5 million and releasing him they doubled his cap number and now have to deal with him being on the roster.
     
  17. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I will try to explain it in a simpler form to you. He puts up bigger numbers at the point because he dominates the ball. He's a terrible off the ball player, and we've seen that while he has the ball in his hands, he's no Dwyane Wade.

    I don't scoff at it. I don't care. We don't need a defensive PG. We need someone who can run an offense and be a threat to shoot in order to spread the floor so our bigs can operate in the paint. Stuckey can do neither of those things. Jennings on the other hand is a fantastic P&R player and a great outside shooter.

    What you and I see is very different. Bynum gets everyone involved in the offense.

    Without him, you wouldn't be able to make any case for Daye because Bynum was the one assisting his key baskets.

    That's called "context". It's something PER doesn't reflect, like PER doesn't reflect Stuckey ball hogging.
     
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  18. McQuack

    McQuack Bench Warmer

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    Stuckey doesn't fit here. I really hope Joe is trying to flip his expiring deal for a SG who can start until Pope Kentavious is ready. Marcus Thornton could be a candidate, as the Kings just traded for Vasquez and drafted McLemore. He got 2 or 3 years left at his contract, so I guess the Kings would be happy to get rid of him.
     
  19. round

    round All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion

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    I'll take a PG that adds 2-3 PER to each of the other 4 players on the floor then one that "gets his". PG's first job and most important is to run the team and get folks in the right spots to make plays.... A great PG could average 5 pts and 5 assists if he's making the team run like a fine tuned watch. Assists are nice, but I think are highly over rated at times.... The PG can make the pass that leads to the pass for a wide open dunk, and he gets no credit from the stats freaks.... watching the game in real time you can see how the PG started the play....

    Stuckey... does none of these good things IMO, and I think he has wasted alot of God given talents that he does have, and thats the biggest shame when it comes to his game.

    I will have to disagree with you Roscoe about Miami though, there PG is great..... he just happens to play SF or PF depending on the lineup there running and his name is James :P
     
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  20. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    IMO, the way to make Pope "fit" is to play him. No training like on the job training.

    As far as Stuckey not fitting - its the coach that makes a player fit or not. Playing Stuckey at shooting guard, where he is totally and absolutely worthless, was a coach's choice. Fortunately, that coach is gone, but unfortunately, the guy who hired that coach, and who may have been insisting to that coach to play Stuckey like that - is still around. Until I see positive change, I won't give Dumars a break. Hiring a new coach to do his bidding to the detriment of the team won't help any.

    Last season, we had two perfectly good point guards. Both with plenty of flaws. By simply splitting the point guard duties right down the middle between Knight and Stuckey, both would have been fresh as well as well practiced all season long. Each could have had their pet plays, giving us a game's worth of decent plays. And the opposition would continually see us switch from two very different types of defender at the point. What we did instead, try to play these two together, was just plain wrong.

    Now, this season coming up, we don't know what is going to happen. Because we really do not know what Billups has left in the tank at this point. For certain, he has slowed down, and seems, by the stats, to be able to check the opposing shooting guard a whole lot better than the opposing point. He could still play point, as long as we have a shooting guard along side him who can guard the point for him on defense. Pope just might be that guy. So here is a rotation, based on Billups starting for us, with Pope starting at shooting guard. (Remember this, a few years back, nobody would consider playing Jennings ahead of Billups at point. Sure Billups has slowed down, but he has only gained even more experience these past few years.)

    Start Billups, Pope, Smith, Monroe, Drummond.

    Now you have a steadier outside shooter in Billups, instead of Jennings, to help spread the floor for our front line.

    2nd unit: Jennings, Datome, Mitchell, Harrellson, (Monroe and Drummond take turns playing with the 2nd unit)

    This is a nine player rotation, and leaves out the following guys: Stuckey, Bynum, Siva, CV, Singler, JJ

    Or, alternate 2nd unit) Jennings, Datome, JJ, Mitchell, Harrellson
     

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