Home Portland Trailblazers Sunday, December 15, 2013

Discussion in 'December 2013' started by roscoe36, Oct 21, 2013.

  1. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Thanks for exposing me as being Terry Foster as I kinda coined the same words last night on a post stamped @ 7:41PM PST/10:41 EST
  2. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    It's all about knowing the clock before you shoot it and how much time is left on the clock after you hit the bucket and where everyone is on the floor. This is a coaching issue that needs to be addressed in the prior time out. This is the pros....not a collegiate or high school game.
  3. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    More tipping than grabbing last night. Lopez is pretty good at volley ball.......
  4. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    When you are losing by 2 with 25 seconds left, you take the first available good shot, no matter how much time is left on the clock. You have to give yourself a chance for an offensive rebound on a miss or even a foul to extend the game. If you make the shot to tie it up early, then you rely on your defense to send it to a second overtime.

    As much as I dislike the guy, Stuckey did make a HUGE shot to tie the game up.
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That is what teams do, not what they should do.

    I could dig it if we got a dunk or an open 3 pointer, but the shot that Stuckey elected to take almost bounced over the backboard before luckily going in. The move he made was Jordan-esque, except that the man shooting it was a bench player that over half the forum wanted released a few months ago. If you call that an available shot, then we probably could have fired it off 10 seconds sooner.


    When you're down 2 with a final possession, the odds really strongly favor a last second 3 pointer.

    Consider the scenario where we take a quick 2. We have to make the 2-pointer. Let's say that has a 50% likelihood to be generous. Then, the other team has to fail to score on their final possession. Let's give them a 70% chance of failing to score to be generous. Then, we have to win overtime. Let's give us a 50% chance to beat a great team like the Blazers in OT to be generous. Add all that up, and the strategy gave us a .5 x .7 x .5 chance to win. That = .175.

    Alternatives to that:
    1) last second 2 pointers. Then it is just the chance of making the shot times 50% for OT. That means that any shot with at least a 35% chance of success would have been equal to an earlier shot with a 50% chance of success.

    2) last second 3 pointer. Then it is just the odds of making the shot. That means that taking a last second 3-pointer with at least a 17.5% chance of going in would have been a better strategy.


    I'd be surprised if Mo has ever thought any of this through, especially after seeing his general disregard for 2 for 1's.
  6. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Maybe Billups should be player coach?? I am sure many can feel his pain with these comments
    Pwn Toney likes this.
  7. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I disagree that a last-second 3-pointer is the best shot. I have no problem shooting the 3-pointer if that is the first available open look. Also, there was no need to take the shot as quickly as Stuckey did. You don't need a buzzer-beater, but give yourself a chance for an offensive rebound. Your stats didn't factor any of this in. If the Pistons score with 3-5 seconds left, the probability of Portland winning it in 1OT are much slimmer.
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I meant that their odds of winning in a subsequent OT is 50%.

    So, we take a mid range J with 10 seconds left.

    Assumptions- meant to error on the side of generosity when data not attainable:
    Pistons average .341 on FT length jump shots this season (Stuckey averaged way worse last season in 40+ attempts)
    Conversely, the Pistons miss .559 from this length.
    FT jump shots result in offensive rebounds 20.1% of the time (according to extensive rebounding study)
    Andre Drummond has a .527 FG % after offensive rebounds (being generous and assuming he gets it).
    Although Dre gets 3% and ones after Orebs, I'm assuming that doesn't happen. This is more than canceled out by my assumption that he doesn't get fouled (and miss FTs). He draws fouls 7.5% of the time after securing an Oreb.
    Odds of winning in next OT = 50%
    Odds of Opponent scoring with less than 8 seconds = .300 (wild ___ guess).
    Odds of Opponent scoring with less than 5 seconds = .150 (another WAG, used for after offensive rebound and put back)

    So, in the case of 2 point attempt with around 10 seconds left:
    [odds of Stuck hitting x other team missing x OT win] + [odds of Stuck missing x offensive rebound % x Dre's FG% in that situation x other team missing x OT win]
    Odds of winning= (.341)*(.700)*(.5) + (.559)*(.201)*(.527)* (.850)*(.5) = .144


    That would mean that a last second 3 with better than a 14.4% chance of going in would be a better strategy. I think that Mo Cheeks could probably design a play where we could get of a .250 3 point attempt with a release at 4 seconds or less. At that point, the opponent average return possession would be extremely close to zero value (assuming ball is in the air for about 1.5 seconds and then the rebound takes another second to be secured and they need to respond with a half court heave at best, which has a 1.3% success rate).

    The beauty of being down only 2 is that the opponent can't press out to the 3-point line. The odds of hitting a 3 when down by 2 has to be much greater than being down by 3.

    Feel free to screw with the assumptions if you think they aren't realistic. The real test of this theory would be to look at the historical data to see what the success rates are. But mining the data is difficult. I'm not sure if that's possible. It seems like a single season could be easily analyzed using the NBA's new 6 camera ball/ player tracking system... if you were an NBA team.

    The half-court heave: Celebrating sports' greatest miracle - SBNation.com
    Where Do Rebounds Go? | CourtVision
  9. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    First of all, it's very cool that you make this statistical argument. I love this sort of thing.

    A couple of assumptions I would tweak:

    Once a last-second shot went up, all 5 offensive players would be crashing the offensive glass at a much-greater-than-average intensity knowing it's their last hope to win the game.

    If you are running down the clock for the last-second shot, the defense would REALLY tighten up on the ball-handler in the closing seconds. You would not only have a lower chance of making a highly-contested shot, there is a greater probability that you either don't get a shot off or you turn it over (neither case that you accounted for).
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Counter-counter points:

    Defensive players would crash the glass too as they wouldn't need to escape on the break and a defensive rebound would be a game winner. 5 offensive players crashing the glass is a recipe for an offensive foul.

    On the last possession, the defense is going to be in "no foul" mode. Swarming a ball handler like Jennings isn't a great idea if it means that it will leave a man fully open, especially if DET is not restricted to the 3-point line (a high percentage 2 is a nice fall back strategy).


    It's always interesting to think that there may be underutilized strategies that haven't caught on yet. The real answer to this question would lie in actual historic analysis. This situation has played out plenty of times both ways. One season's worth of data might even be significant. Studying what happens when a team is down exactly 2 points and gets the ball with 26 or less seconds in the 4th quarter would be a good sample set. I believe that there may be tools that would allow that research.

    You'd think that it has been done before since it is such a recurring situation and could sway the average outcome so significantly. Michigan football recently "went for the winning 3-pointer" essentially against OSU and spurred a similar debate.

    It's possible that the quant guys have cracked it and coaches refuse to utilize it. Also possible that some teams try the 3-point strategy... I don't follow other teams that closely. And of course, it's also possible that some of my assumptions are off enough to shift the balance the other way.
  11. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I have often heard the "go for the win on the road, go for the tie at home" strategy, too. I'm not sure how much sense that makes.
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I always disregarded that. It it's true, then the difference between the two strategies must be really small (within the difference between home and road ot win rates).

    Coaches gamble more when they are the underdog (eg um vs osu). I believe coaches view going for the winning 3 as a gamble and going for 2 as playing it safe... Probably without doing the math, whichever way it comes out.
  13. brofmfa

    brofmfa Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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    Go for tie on the road is okay, since guys aren't going home after the game so a little overtime work is good to sleep.
    roscoe36 likes this.

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