Plus/Minus and its relevance

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Nov 30, 2006.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Look at how ridiculous Wade's numbers are:

    Miami Heat NBA stats and data from 82games.com

    Net Production, he's +19.2 and every other player on the Heat is 0 or worse.

    He's +4.6 on court and -16 off court.

    His Roland rating is 19.6 and the next closest is 3.


    Looks like an MVP candidate to me.
  2. PistonFanInCavsTown

    PistonFanInCavsTown First Round Draft Pick

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    And I got him on my fantasy team with the 8th pick overall! Dude's been a stud so far!
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Stuckey has fought back from a big +/- hole at the beginning of the season to essentially break-even now, which means that his great play of late has translated and showed itself in this measurement.

    He has played 50% of total available minutes so far this year.

    With him on the court, we've scored 1,244 and given up 1,245.
    With him on the bench, we've scored 1,257 and given up 1,257.

    (That means that the Pistons have actually given up 1 more point than we've scored this year, so we're lucky to have a > .500 record.)

    Rodney Stuckey of the Detroit Pistons, NBA player stats and data from 82games.com

    The difference?
    Through about 15 games, he was shooting 28% on his jumpers and now he has increased that average to 48% (so he must be shooting about 60% lately to pull the average up). He's essentially been shooting the ball twice as well. And with the ability to hit the shot, he is taking more J's, which is keeping the defense guessing. He now shoots 52% J's and drives 48% of the time. Earlier in the year, this was heavily skewed toward drives, and he was shooting a low % in the paint and picking up a lot of charges. Now, hardly any offensive fouls and he's pulled up his inside shooting % to 53%.
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    NBA Team by Position stats

    This is each team's ranking "by position". This means that if the starter plays 80% of the minutes and the backup plays 20%, then that combination is evaluated and ranked against the other teams. For the most part, all backups are similar and the ranking is heavily determined by the starter, especially at the top of the charts.

    So, here is how it looks:

    PG:
    #1- NOH. (Chris Paul)
    #2- DEN. (Chauncey Billups)

    SG:
    #1- MIA (D. Wade)
    #2- LAL (Kobe)

    SF:
    #1- CLE (Lebron)
    #2- BOS (Pierce)

    PF:
    #1-DAL (Dirk)
    #2- CLE (Ben Wallace 50%/ and Varajao 50%)

    C:
    #1- ORL (Dwight Howard)
    #2- LAL (Bynum 66%/ Gasol 33%)


    The surprising results are Chauncey and the comittee of Ben Wallace and Anderson Varajao. Besides them, the best players in the NBA are clearly highlighted here.
  5. Latinoking90

    Latinoking90 Bench Warmer

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    What the heck they do to him in China?
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I guess not all coaches look at this stat.
  7. Latinoking90

    Latinoking90 Bench Warmer

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    Mike D'Antoni only looks at many days till Stephon is no longer a Knick.
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    T-minus 90 days.
  9. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    After having a terrible +/- start to the year, where he was in last place on the Raptors with a -80 or so, Amir has slowly climbed his was up the leaderboard.

    Tonight's +15 puts him into positive territory for the year and past Bargnani into 2nd place on the Raps, behind Bellineli by 6 points. He's +70 over the last 10 games.


    On the Pistons, Ben Wallace is the best +/- player, followed closely by Ben Gordon. Jerebko is in last place overall at -137, but when you adjust for +/- per minute, there are 3 guys worse than him and 2 more at about his level.

    A horrifying stat though... over the last 10 games, Chris Wilcox is -100! Promoting him to the starting rotation during this stretch is evidence that Pistons management fired up the tank.
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Since we are in a retool/rebuild/tank mode, I'm searching for underappreciated players out there that we might be able to pick up.

    Sorted each team by total +/- and +/- per minute. My theory is that the +/- per minute is more telling because it isn't driven by playing time. Also, young and effective players might be producing under their coach's radar.

    I filtered out all players who have not played 20% of the top minutes guy on the team. For example, if Stuckey has played 1,000 min for us, then I filtered out all players with less than 200 min. Also, on teams where every player is in the negative, there is no cummulative +/- leader and I only use per min.

    Team: +- leader/ +-per min leader
    ATL: J. Smith/ M. Bibby
    BOS: R. Allen/ Garnett
    CHA: Wallace/ D. Brown
    CHI: L. Deng/ L. Deng
    CLE: Lebron/ Varejao
    DAL: Nowitzki/ Dampier
    DEN: Hilario/ C. Anderson
    DET: (nobody)/ B. Wallace
    GSW: Watson/ Watson
    HOU: Lowry/ D. Anderson
    IND: L. Head/ L. Head
    LAL: Kobe-Artest/ Gasol
    LAC: (nobody)/ E. Gordon
    MEM: M. Gasol/ M. Gasol
    MIA: D. Wade/ J. O'Neal
    MIL: C. Bell/ C. Bell
    MIN: (nobody)/ K. Love
    NJN: (nobody)/ K. Dooling
    NYK: Jeffries/ Jeffries
    OKC: C. Paul/ J. Wright
    ORL: Howard/ R. Anderson
    PHI: Iverson/ Iverson
    PHO: C. Frye/ C. Frye
    POR: Webster/ G. Oden
    SAC: Rodriguez/ Rodriguez
    SAS: Duncan/ Bonner
    SEA: no data
    TOR: Bellini/ Bellini
    UTA: Williams/ Kirilenko
    WAS: M. Miller/ M. Miller

    Just highlighted some of the names where I think that we could get the player for a reasonable price and where they may be providing more value than their reputation would suggest.

    Bonner showed up in this category last year and it seemed a little flukey, but here he is again.

    I haven't looked to see who will be free agents or what positions some of these guys play (SG vs SF or a mix for example) and compared it to what we need.
  11. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    After about 10% of the season is in the books, here's a snapshot of the individual +/- numbers for the Pistons per minute played:

    +.069 Bynum
    -.008 Monroe
    -.009 Villanueva
    -.012 Gordon
    -.016 McGrady
    -.092 Maxiell
    -.110 Daye
    -.212 Stuckey
    -.257 Prince
    -.272 Hamilton
    -.340 Wallace
    -.544 Summers

    The sample sizes are small for many players and there hasn't been enough mixing of rotations yet to drive differences between starters or differences between reserves. I think that what we're basically seeing is that our starting unit is getting slaughtered and our reserves are only losing by a slim margin. The guys on the team who play with both units tend to be in the middle (Daye, Maxiell, etc).

    Switching them up could very well yield opposite results.

    It makes sense that Bynum, Gordon, McGrady, Villanueva, and Monroe can hold their own against the average NBA bench unit. Doubt they would make a +.500 starting unit.

    Inconclusive...

    Oh, and Summers have a very small sample size, so his number is whack. Also, he's been inserted for defensive only possessions if my memory is correct. That will kill your +/- number.
  12. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Just another supporting evidence that the old guard needs to go. :yellowprison:
  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Also, I'm finding Miami interesting so far:

    +.470 Ilgauskas
    +.366 Arroyo
    +.304 Bosh
    +.296 Anthony
    +.278 Jones
    +.269 Lebron
    +.255 Wade
    +0.69 Haslem
    -.047 House

    Bosh leads the big 3, even though his stats don't look as good. Looks like Ilgauskas and Arroyo might have been good pickups for them. Complementary pieces with a true C and true PG.
  14. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    This is what you are hoping for when you are paying your bench $20 million plus per year!
  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Amir Johnson has now become the top +/- player on the Raptors (for all active players over 100 minutes played).

    Tonight was a classic Amir gem.

    16 minutes
    14 points
    4 rebounds
    1 steal
    1 block
    6 personal fouls
    +10

    Uncanny.
  16. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Year to date: Plus/minus per minute:


    Player Per minute
    V. Macklin 0.54
    A. Daye (0.02)
    B. Wallace (0.05)
    R. Stuckey (0.12)
    D. Wilkins (0.14)
    J. Maxiell (0.17)
    W. Bynum (0.19)
    B. Gordon (0.24)
    G. Monroe (0.32)
    B. Knight (0.35)
    J. Jerebko (0.38)
    T. Prince (0.40)
    C. Villanueva (0.67)


    Not what you'd expect so far. Need to see more data to see if the pattern changes. Macklin and Charlie V are really small samples, so I crossed them out.


    On Toronto, the usual guys is on top...
    http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22011&split=9&team=Raptors

    On the Clippers per minute, it is Billups.

    On the Grizz, it's Michael Conley by a lot (maybe he deserves his contract?)

    Heat- Mario Chalmers (then Lebron).
  17. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Plus/minus per minute? I'm not even sure what that stat is supposed to show. Is it really suggesting that Prince is the best/most valuable player on this team?
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    No, the (brackets) represent negative numbers. So, on a per minute basis with Prince on the floor so far this year, we lose .4 points, which comes out to a 19.2 point deficit per 48 minutes.

    When looking at +/-, you really have to view it on a per x minute basis, otherwise the guys who play the most on a winning team have the highest and the guys who play the most on a crappy team have the lowest. That doesn't tell you much.

    In our case, Macklin is the only player who is in the black for the year... but he hasn't played very much and it has been purely garbage time. Our best player with actual playing time is Daye, then Wallace, then Stuckey, etc.
  19. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Aaah, I see. I didn't realize the numbers were negative. Thanks for the clarification.
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Here is how it is shaking out so far on the season for each team. I'm showing the +/- leader for all NBA teams (with a minimum of 500 minutes played... Damien Wilkins just barely qualifies for example):

    ATL- Radmonovic ($1.3M expiring contract. Not sure how or why he's leading this team in looking at his stats. + .500 eFG and maybe creates mismatches with size).
    BOS- Garnett
    CHA- DJ White- not the most convincing lead
    CHI- Deng
    CLE- Varejao
    DAL- Carter (Dirk is close behind)
    DEN- A. Miller
    DET- Stuckey (quit hating on him as long as he holds on to this spot- Knight is last on the team and drags Stuckey's +/- down).
    GSW- Udoh (also leads adjusted +/- by a huge margin... there is something good about him. GS has him cheap through 2015 though).
    HOU- Lowry
    IND- Granger
    LAL- Kobe
    LAC- CP3
    MEM- Conley (his win shares get better every year)
    MIA- Lebron
    MIL- Udrih (suspect due to negative values for the team and him barely qualifying... not the per minute leader)
    MIN- Love
    NJN- Deron Williams
    NYK- * Fields (although Novak is #1 with too few min to qualify and Lin is #1 by a mile in +/- per minute, he is just behind in total from all the DNPs)
    NOH- G. Ayon (leads in production, all forms of +/-, and PER)
    OKC- Harden
    ORL- Anderson
    PHI- Holiday (leads in adjusted +/- also by a mile. He's extremely cheap and they have him through 2014)
    PHO- Nash
    POR- Gerrald Wallace
    SAC- ** Chuck. Hayes (although they are all negative and pretty proportional per minute... this guy has just played the fewest minutes while still qualifying)
    SAS- Parker
    TOR- Amir (this is his stat for whatever reason)
    UTA- Millsap
    WAS- Blatche


    The surprising leaders that I find interesting from a value standpoint are Udoh, Ayon, and Holiday. Radmonovic is interesting, but at 31 years old, probably not for us. Next year though, some other teams may want to look over his game film and see if there is a reason that he leads his team.

    From this article: http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2012/02/gustavo-ayon-gets-sequential/
    Looks like Ayon is signed for $1.9M/year through 2014. We could trade Austin Daye straight up for him.

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