Plus/Minus and its relevance

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Nov 30, 2006.

  1. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Wow. Good stuff, Tashaun. No wonder Flip always calls Rip or CB during crunch time. Sheed makes his big crunch-time plays on the defensive end (with an occasional 3/4-court shot).
     
  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I always thought of Rip as a bad option at the end, but this year he seems to be hitting the big shots. I remember a few games where he hit critical shots on the 2nd or 3rd to last possessions. Those are easy to forget, but they are still important.

    I didn't even bother looking up Tay's numbers.
     
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    With the surpisingly strong play of Amir, I figured that I would check on the +/- numbers and see how he stands in relation to the other Pistons. This is the "on" court only stat.

    For the entire season, here is how each player ranks per minute:
    1) CB +.254
    2) AJ +.205
    3) RW +.193
    4) TP +.192
    5) AM +.184
    6) RH +.156
    7) AA +.130
    8) JM +.081
    9) JH +.080
    10) RM +.025
    11) LH +.021
    12) RS -.105
    13) WH -.129

    I find AA to be surprisingly effective and RS to be surprisingly far down the list.

    If we only look at the last 10 games, then here is how it looks:
    1) AJ +.394
    2) CB +.277
    3) JH +.249
    4) RW/RH +.203
    6) TP +.106
    ...
    RS is last here too. This is very surprising to me, since it seems like he has been doing very well as of late. Is it possible that there are holes in his game that we are ignoring, even when he is playing well?

    AMIR JOHNSON:
    Here is some good fodder for why we should consider moving him up into the starting line up. The main reason is because when he plays with the starters, it has been very successful.

    The pairing of Billups and Amir this year has resulted in an incredible +60 points in only 76 total minutes.

    Tay + Amir = +63 in 107 minutes

    Sheed + Amir = +56 in 99 minutes

    Rip + Amir = +38 in 117 minutes

    Obviously, a lot of those above results are correlated with eachother because there is a lot of overlap. But the net result is just that the starters, in part, or as a whole, are incredibly productive when they are paired up with Amir (at least so far).


    Just one last look at our best defensive players (opponents points allowed per 100 possessions when they are on the court).
    1) Afflalo
    2) virtual tie between AJ/Sheed/ and Billups.

    Afflalo allows about 100 points and the 2nd place guys are all about 102.

    This sort of supports the argument that Afflalo is providing a nice benefit even when his jumper is not working.
     
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm wondering how much Chauncey's 3 point shooting percentage is damaged by all of the last second chucks at the end of quarters.

    His total 3-point percentage is .404

    If we assume that he takes 1 half court + shot per game and back those out of his shooting, then his percentage rises to .517

    If we assume that he takes 1 every 2 games, then his average would be .451.

    Not sure what a good estimate is for how many he takes, but it is clear that this number could really skew his percentage for the worse.
     
  5. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Likewise wonder how many threes he and Sheed take with the shot clock going off, when someone holds the ball too long and then can't get a shot.
     
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I think almost every 3-point shooter gets those though. Also, they sometimes get the wide open look at the end of the shot clock after great passing. So maybe those equal out a bit.

    Chauncey Billups of the Detroit Pistons, NBA player stats and data from 82games.com

    If you look at the box on the right, it shows how Chauncey shoots in different phases of the shot clock. He takes 18% of his attempts in the last few seconds and shoots his worst percentage, but that is still .484.

    Rasheed Wallace of the Detroit Pistons, NBA player stats and data from 82games.com

    Pretty much the same pattern with Sheed. 22% there and shoots his lowest eFG of .453.

    Looks like Sheed is a little bit more of an outlet for us when nothing is working. Notice though that he gets blocked 3% of the time late in the clock vs. 1% of the time at other times. Chauncey is the opposite and rarely gets blocked late on the clock. That may be because of his ability to "draw" fouls... i.e. use his butt and acting skills.
     
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Here is a further dissection of the 3-point shooting of the starters, because 82games just put out their report on stats per quarter.

    Player/3p% 1st Q/ 2nd Q/ 3rd Q/ 4th Q:

    C. Billups/ .488/ .309/ .431/ .278
    Hamilton/ .548/ .320/ .438/ .483
    T Prince/ .515/ .308/ .383/ .200
    Wallace/ .494/ .333/ .273/ .368

    I'm trying to think about why the percentages would be so different from quarter to quarter. Each player has a significant decline from the 1st to the 2nd (fatigue factor maybe?). Except for Rip, the 4th quarter shooting is pretty bad. Also, who knew Chauncey was bricking so many 4th quarter threes this year? Also, look at Prince's .515 in the 1st vs. his .200 in the 4th. This might tell you that he is a good 3point shooter when he is wide open, but coverage really affects him.

    Tentative conclusions: Let Rip take more 3's. Don't let Sheed take any in the 3rd quarter. Don't let Tay take any in the 2nd or 4th when he gets tired.
     
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    One other report to show. It takes each team's production from each position and ranks it in the league.

    NBA Team by Position stats

    Note that in each table, it shows the RANK of that position for each stat. It took me a minute to realize that when I was looking at it.

    The results show that at the PG position, we are 2nd in the NBA. SG we are 6th. SF we are 7th. C we are 9th. PF we are 13th.

    Strength and weakness at each position.
    PG- #2 in scoring. #1 in FT's. #19 in turnovers. Good defense.
    SG- Good in points and assists. Weak in rebounds. Also good D.
    SF- #1 in fewest turnovers. Weak in FT attempts.
    PF- #2 in rebounding. #3 in fewest turovers. 29th in scoring! Also weak in assists and FT attempts. This is the only position that we give up more than we get.
    C- OK at a variety of things, FG%, points, turnovers. Weak at rebounding and FT attempts.


    Just to note, Dyess was only counted at a PF. Sheed was only counted as a Center. Maxiell and Johnson each played both positions about 50/50. Ratliff = C. Mohammed = C.

    So, Dyess is primarily responsible for the PF numbers and Sheed stands behind the C numbers.

    Everyone else is exactly how you would expect.
     
  9. PistonFanInCavsTown

    PistonFanInCavsTown First Round Draft Pick

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    My initial thought was that the 4th quarter numbers were so low for Chauncey and Sheed because they chuck up so many, so I headed over to 82games to see if they reported the number of attempts. They do but it's on a per-game basis so the numbers are small, but here goes:

    Player 3APG(%) | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4
    C. Billups | 1.3 (.488) | 0.9 (.309) | 1.6 (.431) | 1.0 (.278)
    R. Hamilton | 0.6 (.548) | 0.4 (.320) | 0.5 (.438) | 0.5 (.483)
    T. Prince | 0.5 (.515) | 0.4 (.308) | 0.7 (.383) | 0.4 (0.200)
    R. Wallace | 1.2 (.494) | 0.9 (.333) | 1.2 (.273) | 1.2 (.368)

    I'm still not sure what to make of those numbers. Is Rip more consistent because he's more selective? If so then what is Tay's problem in the 4th; are the majority of his Q4 3s late-shot-clock-chucks?

     
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    We are definitely more likely to a) have the starters in during the 4th quarter if we are losing and b) have CB and company shoot more 3's if we are losing.

    Chauncey really kills it in the 3rd, eh?
     
  11. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Pretty amazing that the SF position is only 3rd in the league for FTA for the Cavs. The Clips and Nets are ahead. Their games must take three hours to play if they're taking more FTAs than LBJ.
     
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I hope I'm not boring you guys with this stuff, but I think the recently published "clutch" numbers show something interesting with our team.

    "clutch" is defined as "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points."

    This season, Sheed gets the majority of our clutch shots, followed by Billups, with Rip in 3rd. Their performance in these situations should make Flip re-evaluate who his go-to players are.

    Sheed:
    He takes 22.5 shots per 48 minutes of crunch time and shoots a horrendous .259 from the floor. Of those shots, 7.5 of them are 3-pointers, where he is shooting .167. This is only slightly above BEN Wallace's career 3P% of .116. So, would we want Sheed or Ben shooting a game winning 3 pointer for us? It wouldn't really matter. Conclusion: Quit drawing up plays for Sheed in crunch time. The other team expects it and it isn't working.

    Chauncey:
    He takes 19.9 shots per 48 and shoots .457. Not great, but still about twice as good as Sheed. Of those, 7.8 are 3's, where he averages .278. Again, this is a better option than Sheed, but way below his normal 3-point average. Since it is clear that pressure doesn't bother CB, it is pretty obvious that he is covered on these 3-point attempts. Conclusion: Consider mixing up the plays a bit to decrease the predictability under pressure.

    Rip:
    He takes 18.8 shots per 48 and averages a stellar .512. Of those, only 6 are 3 pointers, where his average is .385, which is pretty solid for pressure situations. Conclusion: Rip is more clutch than we give him credit for, the other team knows we are going to Sheed and Chauncey, so draw up more plays for Rip.
     
  13. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    All the more reason to play the starters 43 of the first 43 minutes and make sure the game isn't close. See, there is a plan.

    This does look pretty bad. How do the Pistons' top three rank relative to other teams?
     
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    There are some really clutch players out there. Nash and Ginobili are probably the best all around IMO, when you factor in efficiency and quadruple threat (3-point shooting too).

    Sortable NBA Player Clutch stats

    Here is one other thing to consider though. The Pistons haven't had that much crunch time this year because we have a pretty high average point spread. So, I guess you could say that the sample size is on the small side. Also, the crunch time games we have had tend to be against pretty good defensive teams.
     
  15. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Man, LBJ is pretty impressive in the clutch.

    I hate it when it turns out that way.

    This is a really interesting ranking - especially the percent assisted column showing who is really getting their own shots and who is having the ball served on a platter.
     
  16. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I was thinking about that too. Dirk's is probably the exception to that rule with > 50% assisted. I doubt those are wide open shots. I guess in that case, whoever throws him the ball gets the assist, even though Dirk is probably triple teamed.

    The problem that I see developing with the Pistons, and I think the stats show it, is that we are getting into trouble when we try to play isolation bball. Rip is shooting so well in the clutch 1) b/c he is good under pressure, but also because 2) he is getting open and they are passing him the ball. When Chauncey and Sheed decide they are going to score, they are often putting up heavily contested shots. The beauty of this team is that we have 5 experienced starters who can all knock down long jump shots. We need to work a little harder to be unpredictable and unselfish when it really matters.
     
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Adjusted Plus-Minus Ratings: New and Improved for 2007-2008

    New plus minus adjustment for maximum accuracy! Pay attention to the error component.

    Here is basically what it means.

    If you come out to a +6.0 on the adjusted +/- offensive and defense stat and your error is 1.0. That means that there is a 95% liklihood that you are between a +5.0 and a +7.0.

    The more different combinations of players that you play with and the more combinations of players that play together when you are on the bench, the lower your error will be. This means that if Amir latches a ride with the starters all of the time and never plays with anyone else, he will have a huge error component.
     
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Now that we have some data from this season, here is how it's shaking out for our team. These are on court/ off court combined. So, we are +9.9 per 100 possessions with Afflalo on the court and we are -5.7 per 100 when he's been on the bench. +9.9 minus -5.7 = +15.6

    Player +/- combined (on court/ off court)
    1. [strike]Billups +15.7[/strike] (+13.1/ -2.6)
    2. Afflalo +15.6 (+9.9/-5.7)
    3. Bynum + 9.7 (+7.1/-2.6)
    4. Sheed + 7.7 (+1.1/-2.6)
    5. Kwame + 3.0 (+1.2/-1.8)
    6. Tay + 2.7 (-0.2/ -2.9)
    7. Amir + 2.7 (+1.0/ -1.6)
    8. Iverson -1.2 (-1.4/ -0.2)
    9. Fabio -3.5 (-3.7/ -0.2)
    10. Dyess -5.8 (limited data, -6.3/-0.5)
    11. Rip -7.4 (-2.8/ +4.6)
    12. Stuckey -15.4 (-10.7/ +4.7)
    13. Maxiell -19.3 (-13.1/ +6.2)
    Acker and Sharpe have astronomical numbers, but they are obviously nothing to go by because of how few minutes they've played.

    For the first time in years, we are giving up more points per game than we are scoring ourselves. It's not good.


    The Roland rating shakes out a little differently and takes more stats into account. According to the Roland ratings for our team, the top 5 men currently on the roster would be:

    Bynum
    AI
    Tay
    Amir
    Sheed

    Maybe that would be a good starting lineup?
     
  19. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Why would you include "off court" statistics? A guy's statistics shouldn't change while he is sitting on the bench. The value of that statistic doesn't make sense to me.
     
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I think it shows intangible value. For instance, when Afflalo isn't playing, we tend to get rocked (-5.7). When Maxiell isn't playing, we do extremely well. It's sort of a replacability measure. It shows not only how good you are, but how capable the team is in replacing you.

    Say a team has a player like Gadzuric, and no other big man. They would probably not do great with him on the court, because he isn't that great of a player compared to the other team's center. But, if you take him out and don't have a good replacement, you're really going to get beat up inside.


    What the numbers might be saying about Afflalo and Maxiell is that we don't have another player who can lock up shooting guards and that might be an important part of winning. On the other hand, we have a guys like Maxiell that can get offensive rebounds and provide energy, but without all the bricking.
     

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