Plus/Minus and its relevance

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Nov 30, 2006.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Since the "real" season is over and the last 2 games will consist of meaningless loafing and stat hoarding by the young'ns, I want to provide an on court +/- conclusion to this season.

    Here is how the Pistons rank in terms of +/- per minute played. I personally believe this list does a pretty good job in ranking our players on their performance this year.

    1) Chauncey Billups +.146
    T1) Antonio McDyess +.146
    3) Richard Hamilton +.127
    4) Tayshaun Prince +.104
    5) Dale Davis +.098
    6) Rasheed Wallace +.092
    7) Chris Webber +.089
    8) Jason Maxiell +.046
    9) Carlos Delfino +.034
    10) Ronald Murray +.016
    11) Nazr Mohammed -.038
    12) Lindsey Hunter -.119
    13) Will Blalock -.120

    Amir Johnson and Ronald Dupree were not included because they have played < 100 minutes and it was almost all GT.

    TaS commentary:
    Dyess is the big standout, especially after that poor start. Nazr Mohammed = bust. Lindsey Hunter... has a tough year with injury and bad shooting. Seems to be improving lately though. Sheed and Webber might be waiting to flip the switch. And Dale Davis has silently kicked butt. He benefits from this analysis because it is difficult to see him impact when you watch him. I'll lay off WB, because he is only 1/1000th of a point per minute worse than a respected NBA vet, LH.
     
  2. basketbills

    basketbills All-Star Forum Donor

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    So...how did Dyess do?
     
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    About as well as MVP Candidate, 2 year all star, NBA Finals MVP, Chauncey Billups.

    In the 2nd half of the year, Dyess was the best player on the best team in the East! His shooting % compared to the other 6th men of the year candidates is off the charts.
     
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Half way through the postseason (hopefully) and +/- is shaking out a bit. Here are the playoff-only stats on a PER MINUTE basis.

    1) Jason Maxiell +.332
    2) Dale Davis +.277
    3) Chauncey Billups +.264
    4) Rasheed Wallace +.262
    5) Tayshaun Prince +.224
    6) Rip Hamilton +.143
    7) Antonio McDyess +.097
    8) Christopher Webber -.054
    9) Ronald Flip Murray -.054
    10) Lindsey Hunter -.118
    11) Carlos Delfino -.288

    Nazr not included because he has only played 4 minutes.

    Our big 4 are all performing well, with Rip being the weakest link. McDyess and Webber have been disappointing, especially compared to their regular season numbers. Murray and Hunter came in as expected, which is mediocre to poor.

    The surprises have been that JMax and Davis have been very strong. They have played way less minutes than the starters, but it is clear that they have helped the team greatly when they were out there.

    And on the downside surprise, Delfino has been terrible. This has not been a breakout postseason for him in any shape or form. Hopefully we can use him to defend LeBron a bit and give Tay a break.
     
  5. st8ofmind

    st8ofmind Bench Warmer

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    Would Hunter have been like -.999 before game 6?
     
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    No, he was a -.190
     
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    For lack of a better thread to stick this, I'm parking it here.

    Defensive Composite Score -- NBA player defensive ratings

    The author admits that it isn't perfect, but that is because measuring individual defensive performance is an incredibly difficult task. Still, I think that the formula does a pretty good job of sorting out the good defenders from the poor ones.

    The problem with the Pistons, as was pointed out in a prior 82games analysis, is that the starters are all highly correlated with eachother and that can make it difficult to measure them individually without having huge error margins.

    Overall, I thought it was fun to look at how defenders on other teams are ranked. Seattle for instance... they are terrible on D and Lewis was their best defender according to this.

    Detroit- Maxiell is at the top. Delfino was up there too. And for everyone that says our guards can't stay in front of anyone, here is ammo for your argument. Nazr came out more respectable than you would think.

    Also, Houston's D looks loaded.

    One more quick note:
    Detroit's former players who can't play D.
    Cliffy- 9
    Mike James- 5
    Okur- 6
    Smush- 19
    Mo Evans- 12
     
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    New article on modified plus/minus. It basically fixes all of the problems that we have with the stat; correlation with teammates, playing against starters vs. bench players, etc.

    Surprises- Dyess ranks very high. Prince is relatively low. Ben Wallace is really low. Okur is even lower. And Artest slightly edges out Steve Nash.

    Overall though, the author does a nice job of explaining things.

    Assessing the Relative Value of Draft Position in the NBA Draft
     
  9. buddahfan

    buddahfan Retired from Forum

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    Very interesting

    167 is the last and lowest in table #3


    Assessing the Relative Value of Draft Position in the NBA Draft

    :hoops:
     
  10. buddahfan

    buddahfan Retired from Forum

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    A little different results here. These are raw unweighted?

    Top Players

    :hoops:
     
  11. buddahfan

    buddahfan Retired from Forum

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    The whole article is a lot longer than what I posted above and a bit mind boggling to say the least. Unless you are really into numbers analysis and good with it, it seems to me that just looking at the final results should be sufficient.

    Picking the Difference Makers for the All-NBA Teams

    :hoops:
     
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Just a few nice looking stats on the season so far for our Pistons:

    2nd in point differential at +10 per game. We are behind Boston. This stat is one of the most important IMO. San Antonio was leading this last year even when their record wasn't the best in the league. This is not the stat of a complacent team.

    6th in rebounding differential. We don't have a true center, but we are one of the best rebounding teams in the league. We are getting contributions from every position.

    4th in block differential. Same as above. Center by commitee is working.

    5th in steal diff. Smart players.

    6th in turn/over diff. Led by CB.
     
  13. mikhail1973

    mikhail1973 All-Star Administrator 1x Fantasy Champion

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    These are good stats, but it's very early. Lets see if Pistons can continue in the same mode.
     
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I took a team by team look at the on court/ off court +/- stat for this year through today and here are the leaders. I filtered out every player who has played less than 50% of available minutes. The goal was to find the true MVP's of each team.

    Atl- M. Williams
    Bos- KG (by a mile)
    Cha- G. Wallace
    Chi- Deng
    Cle- Lebron
    Dal- Dirk
    Den- Iverson
    Det- Billups
    GSW- B. Davis
    Hou- Alston
    Ind- Tinsley
    LAC- Magette
    LAL- Bynum
    Mem- Gasol
    Mia- Wade
    Min- Telfair
    NJ- R. Jefferson
    NO- C. Paul
    NYK- Q. Richardson
    Orl- D. Howard
    Phi- Dalembert
    Pho- Nash (by 13 pts over the 2nd highest +/-!!!)
    Por- Outlaw
    Sac- Artest
    Sas- Ginobili
    Sea- Wilcox
    Tor- Bosh
    Uta- Kirilenko (by a lot)
    Was- Jamison


    I would say that for the most part, the best player on the team leads this category. It is such a strong trend, that you have to wonder whether or not some of these other guys are actually the better than their rep... like Alson, Telfair, Wilcox, Outlaw, Bynum, etc.
     
  15. buddahfan

    buddahfan Retired from Forum

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    As you all know by now, Drew (Bynum) has a great rep with me. I love this kids game and will as long as he continues to improve like I think he is capable of.

    :hoops:
     
  16. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I just want to point out that the Pistons are the only team in the NBA to have 9 players with a positive Roland Rating.

    Detroit Pistons NBA stats and data from 82games.com

    By this definition, we are the deepest team in the league.

    Most other teams have about 4 players in positive territory.


    The only problem is that there is little data for Stuckey and Bresek. Even 7 players is fantastic though... if those 2 should slip.

    Also notice that Afflalo is ranked higher than Rip. After Rip's vintage performance last night, I can't say that Afflalo is better, but the numbers show that he is doing something right.

    One other observation. It looks like Dyess is our most effective defender. He only gives up 99.8 points per 100 possessions when on the floor. Afflalo is also very good with 100.5.
     
  17. buddahfan

    buddahfan Retired from Forum

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    The Celtics also have 7 on the plus side.

    The Lakers have 8 on the plus side.

    The Bulls have 6 on the plus side.

    :hoops:
     
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    All good teams. If the Bulls hadn't beaten us twice, then I would say 2 good teams.


    The Lakers are really surprising me. Their highest ranked player pair is Farmar and Radmonovich! They really do have a nice mix right now.

    Here's a bold prediction... Pistons vs. Lakers finals rematch. That would get some attention.
     
  19. buddahfan

    buddahfan Retired from Forum

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    I will drink to that and then some.

    Rest assured if it happens again, I will be rooting for the Pistons against the Lakers just as I did in 2004 and 1989.

    :hoops:
     
  20. buddahfan

    buddahfan Retired from Forum

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