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Away Orlando Magic - Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Discussion in 'April 2016' started by roscoe36, Aug 18, 2015.

  1. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    Perhaps the Morris brothers should move their offseason residence to Tokyo as part of some sort of stimulation package aimed at the Japanese legal system.
     
  2. max

    max All-Star

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    Last thing I heard from him was something about Building a #$^#&*$^ Wall
     
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  3. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    250 japanese couples had sex at the same time in the same venue.
    largest orgy ever
     
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  4. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    And the tickets sold out in minutes.
     
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  5. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    Why ask questions you already know the answer to?
     
  6. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    Did you just know that off the top of your head?
    Is that the kind of knowledge that you carry around with you on a daily basis?
     
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  7. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    it didn't say anything about spectators.
     
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  8. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    Be careful going by stats to decide who is a shotblocker. The much more accurate measure - on a case by case basis, does an opposing player try to score inside on a particular player. If they do not, that player is a shot blocker - even if he shows zero blocks for a season.
     
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  9. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 5x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Good point. How do you measure this, though?
     
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  10. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    By high-steppin' with a TV remote in your hand.
     
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  11. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    That would be an easy eye test
     
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  12. basketbills

    basketbills All-Star Forum Donor

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    You can't really go by stats to find out how good a player is at blocking shots...unless the stats coincide with your preconceived notions about the player...then it would be fine to use them.
     
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  13. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 5x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    So, I take it you are recommending Shots Not Taken Per 48 Minutes?
     
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  14. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    Not easily. Unless a center found himself on a different team each game, with different players from game to game, its hard to say, by stats, why a player scored inside. Was it a non - shotblocking center, or a guard who could not stay in front of anyone? Was it a non - shotblocking center, or was it having a small forward and power forward alongside that center who could provide zero help? And if a center allows no point paints, these days, with stretch fives out there, is that center giving up outside shots?

    So, I would guess the best way, if there is any way at all, would be to look at outside scoring at the same time you look at paint points. How about you look at average attempts per game for the other team to attempt inside scoring, on a 48 minute basis, while a center is in, but then use a multiplier based on how well the other team scored from the outside, again on a 48 minute basis, compared to the league average.

    So, you want a low number. But if the other team is scoring from the outside readily, more than the league average, your number is upped, by the factor YOUROUTSIDESCORING ALLOWEDPER48 / LEAGUEAVERAGEOUTSIDESCORINGALLOWEDPER48

    The theory being that if the other team is scoring readily from the outside, hey, why should they even try to go inside? And conversely, if they are scoring badly from the outside, their want to go inside should go up, and note, you can get a multiplier that lowers your number in this case.

    This of course does not address the "what bigs play along side you" question. But its a start.

    This may address partly the factor of can a guard guard well, to some extent. Often, the same guards who can't stop penetration also can not guard well on the perimeter. If they can't move, they can't move. There are exceptions, of course, but since this would be an average, it should work well enough.
     
  15. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 5x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I'm wondering if the Defensive Rating statistic captures in essence what you are describing.

    The core of the Defensive Rating calculation is the concept of the individual Defensive Stop. Stops take into account the instances of a player ending an opposing possession that are tracked in the boxscore (blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds), in addition to an estimate for the number of forced turnovers and forced misses by the player which aren't captured by steals and blocks.

    The formula for Stops is:
    • Stops = Stops1 + Stops2
    where:
    • Stops1 = STL + BLK * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + DRB * (1 - FMwt)
    • FMwt = (DFG% * (1 - DOR%)) / (DFG% * (1 - DOR%) + (1 - DFG%) * DOR%)
    • DOR% = Opponent_ORB / (Opponent_ORB + Team_DRB)
    • DFG% = Opponent_FGM / Opponent_FGA
    • Stops2 = (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2
    Also necessary is the calculation of Stop%, which is the rate at which a player forces a defensive stop as a percentage of individual possessions faced (essentially the inverse of Floor%, but for defenders):
    • Stop% = (Stops * Opponent_MP) / (Team_Possessions * MP)
    With those numbers in hand, individual Defensive Rating can be computed:
    • DRtg = Team_Defensive_Rating + 0.2 * (100 * D_Pts_per_ScPoss * (1 - Stop%) - Team_Defensive_Rating)
    where:
    • Team_Defensive_Rating = 100 * (Opponent_PTS / Team_Possessions)
    • D_Pts_per_ScPoss = Opponent_PTS / (Opponent_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2) * Opponent_FTA*0.4)
     
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  16. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    The High Steppin' or the shot blocking?
     
  17. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    the latter
     
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  18. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    They do not appear to be the same. What I am describing, a system to grade the tendency to try to go inside against a particular player. The stat you cite gives a bonus, for example, for a block or a turn, both of which happen more when a player tries to force the ball inside.
     
  19. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Or you know, you could just count the actual blocks.
     
  20. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 5x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    That's a lot easier. :lecturer:

    Sometimes great shot blockers have a big effect on the game because opponents just don't even attempt to go inside. I think that's what Lee is getting at. It's hard to quantify that effect, though.
     

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