Discussion in 'March 2013' started by roscoe36, Oct 29, 2012.
I think you're forgetting there's a lottery.
I'm now officially at the point of "meh". Went for the full replay, no Drum, so went to the condensed version. Mediocraty is better in small doses.
(and yes, mediocre is my new favourite way to describe the Pistons)
This is sort of how the Spurs got Duncan when they already had Robinson. If Drummond would have missed 20 more games, we'd be in the running for the top pick.
Right. You can get lucky and move up. Most teams stay in place or drop one place. Say the Pistons were at the 5. They might get lucky and move up but more likely they would draft 5 or 6 (someone leapfrogged up).
It's all good.
But if the Pistons fall to the 9th pick, not only is there less chance of moving up, but they will likely draft 10th at best. At some point, even GM mistakes like Monroe and Drummond will get snapped up. The 10th spot is too low.
Absolutely how the Spurs got Duncan.
I think calling them mediocre is a really optimistic way of viewing this team.
Agreed. They have a long way to go to get to mediocre.
That should be the organizational goal for next year: Mediocre
Except that D Robinson was ridiculously dominant as opposed to Drummond showing serious potential and pseudo dominance off the bench.
But, yeah, the gist of it is that we're going to get an artificially high draft pick due to a key injury. And the beauty is that our high draft pick and Drummond will both be under rookie contracts for a while... so we can theoretically surround them with really good FA's... if JD spends his money well.
If we have the 5th worst record, here would be our odds:
#1 pick: 8.8%
#2 pick: 9.7%
#3 pick: 10.7%
#4 pick: 0%
#5 pick: 26.1%
#6 pick: 36.0%
#7 pick: 8.4%
#8 pick: 0.4%
So, 55.3% chance that we get the #5 pick or better.
The highest single likelihood is that we end up with the #6 pick (i.e. that one team leapfrogs us and pushes us back)
But... a fairly high chance that we get a top 3 pick too- 29.2%
There is about a 47% chance that we get a top 3 pick if we have the 3rd worst record.
I guess that what I'm saying is that at least the odds of us getting a really really high draft pick is not remote.
The worst record in the league still has a 1 in 3 chance of getting bumped all the way to the 4th pick.
Gotta get lucky and maximize our odds by stinking it up for another month (shouldn't be difficult).
Coach does the same thing, I write the same thing. Look for fiction elsewhere.
I never really checked out that "Coach Bashing" patch.
I'd LOVE to have a simple baseball hat with that patch on it.
...everyone loves dolphins.
Its all a crap shoot once you get in the lottery and the percentages...
Lets take a look at the infamous 2003 Lottery and draft where moving up probably costs the Pistons a couple of more rings...
After the lottery balls were realigned
The top six went like this:
The actual reverse order before the lotto balls realigned the picks were like this
The Nuggets and Cavs actually tied for the worst record but as a result of the lottery, the Cavs secured the first pick, The Grizzlies moved up to second, and everyone else moved back a spot.
Everyone knew the Pistons had the Grizzlies pick and were probably satisfied with sixth....but if you recall that day, once they pulled the Clips at # 6, the anticipation of the Pistons winning the lottery and getting a shot at Lebron grew bigger than Darko's pre draft legend...So even though the Cavs won the lottery, the Pistons felt they were in good shape.....with # 2...
8 months later they were wishing they had stayed at # 6 and taken Kaman or who ever was the best available at the time...(the question is would the Nuggets, Raptors or Heat have taken Darko in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th pick if the shuffle had not occurred??? Picking at 6th, we figure Elgin Baylor would have made another mistake and picked Darko ahead of Kaman if the Dorkster was still on the board. David West, Josh Smith and Mo Williams were only other players in that draft to be named all stars in that draft.
So even though we can fall into the top 5 record wise, its still the luck of the draw when moving up and even then your GM braintrust still has to be lucky that they get the right person....
If I remember right, our pick was protected if it was a number 1. So hindsight being what it is... it would have been best if it had ended up staying with them.
Cleveland never gets James, heck probably end up with Darko....
It probably doesn't change our 04 season, we still get Wallace, and win the title.... and then we get Memphis's pick later and get a good player that comes off the bench in our attempt to repeat in 05.
I hate to take the bait, but in what universe (let alone basketball league) would a starting lineup consisting of English, Middleton, Kravtsov beat ANY NBA team?
"Not in my house..." - Hakeem Olajuwon
and in 06 beating the Heat and Mavs, and then 07 beating the Cavs and Spurs.... whether it was Kamen, Wade or Bosh..any one of them would have contributed more so than what we got out of Tony Delk, Mo Evans and Carlos Arroyo
In your example, the 5th worst record was the Clips and they ended up with the 6th pick. That's what I'm afraid of.
It's actually set up fairly well in that your incentive to tank to get marginally better odds toward the end of the season is reduced. It's still advantageous, but maybe not so much that you'll degrade your franchise's reputation by obviously doing it. Subtle ways to do it are surely exploited (injuries taking longer to heal, bench guys getting a few more minutes, coaches simply refusing to play Jerebko at SF, etc).
You stop it, sir.
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