Away Milwaukee Bucks Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Discussion in 'January 2014' started by roscoe36, Oct 21, 2013.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,351
    Likes Received:
    2,711
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    In last night's game, the bench played 26% of the available minutes and the starters played 74%. There was never a time when we didn't have at least 2 starters on the court. It was the shortest rotation of the year for our team I believe.


    If you are wondering what is wrong with this team and you're focusing on the bench over the performance of our starting SF, I don't know what to say. It's one of the most glaring problems that I can remember seeing with a Pistons team.

    In terms of Win Shares per minute (of players with over 300 min):
    1. Drummond
    2. Monroe
    3. Singler
    4. Stuckey
    5. Jennings
    6. Pope
    7. Bynum
    8. Smith
    It's a combination of Smith being a moron with his shot selection and Cheeks refusing to try something new. He's getting killed on both ends of the floor, other than a small handful of games. 60% of Smith's shots are jump shots and he's shooting .281 on them.

    The team has disappointed every prognosticator, even us grizzled insiders. The criticism of the Smith pickup was that we were going to have a logjam and that he shouldn't play the perimeter. Cheeks has seen it play out and we're halfway through the season as our performance is getting worse over time.

    Jennings' shot is nasty too, but he's like Steve Kerr in comparison.
    linwood likes this.
  2. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2005
    Messages:
    4,409
    Likes Received:
    525
    Location:
    Flint
    In this game, our starters got off to good starts in both the 1st and 3rd quarters, Regardless of what stats you want to pull out from that game, our starting unit rocked. While Singler was on the floor, our team was pretty darn bad. Maybe its your theory that our starters just do horrible when the bench guys come in? What is your theory on it. Have you taken the time to watch the game?

    Here is my take on what is happening. Singler can not play in the NBA. In this game, our coach became totally embarrassed about having had him in the game. He did not play in the 4th quarter, until the last play. I believe our coach was totally heartbroken about not having Singler in the game, and that is why he did not bring in one of our most effective scorers back in to finish the game. He just did not have his heart into winning the game.
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,351
    Likes Received:
    2,711
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    I just told you my theory on it. Small ball stinks. 60% of Singler's minutes yesterday came with him at PF. And I'm not even trying to claim that Singler had a good game. It was his worst of the year. Everybody has bad games. I don't really need to create a defense of the guy to win you over. And yes, the starters sometimes rock. But other times they don't.

    My point is that you're putting way too much emphasis on +/- when it fits your thesis. It's really strange to use it as an argument for why a guy stinks when the larger data set that encompasses the entire season doesn't align to that. Are you aware that the Pistons have been better with Singler on the court this year (-2.5 points per 48 min) than when he's on the bench (-3.5 points per 48 min)?

    When a guy stands out +/- wise over a long period of time, it can give hints that the normal stats might be missing good or bad things that they are doing. Over short timeframes, you're going to see games where Lebron James goes -20 and guys like Pope go +20 without touching the basketball (while somebody like Jennings catches fire).


    Here is a weird statistic:

    The Pistons have outscored their opponents this year in the following 3 situations that only depend on one player each:

    1) when Datome is on the court (this, of course is meaningless because he's barely played and it's mostly been fluff minutes)

    2) when Harrellson is on the court. (this is a little more meaningful, but in around 300 minutes and against mainly bench centers, it also should be scrutinized).

    3) when Drummond is on the bench. (now this one is a doozy. I know that Drummond has flaws, but I'm still convinced that he's our best and most effective player overall. One way to explain this is that our bench is doing a good job and that Dre gets less minutes with the bench than Smith or Monroe).
    basketbills likes this.
  4. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2005
    Messages:
    4,373
    Likes Received:
    795
    Location:
    Oakland, CA
    wow man. That game. I don't think I've ever had that experience where I honestly didn't give a **** about the past, present or future of this team. But I reckon, I'm somewhat past that now. Just want to throw out some rants.
    Brandon, you want to learn how to run a team? Give the ball to Monroe then pancake your ass out of the way. There. Don't think about it to hard. Give the ball to Moose. If you want to get pro about it suggest Mo set up some off ball screens for you to run around get a pass from Monroe then get into the lane. The worst thing you can do is impotently prod the defense with poorly set screens while the other 3 guys stand around and watch. The team is effective if it moves. You want to lead. move.
    Mo, if Stuckey attacks a set defense entirely on his own 2 times in a row, call a timeout and tell him to pass the ball to Monroe. You don't need to razzle the defense, just keep him from going 1 on 4 while the lead dwindles to 0. Also for the love of yhwh, set up screens for KCP to run around to shoot in rhythm. Its like you have two guys out there with a bunch of non-entities running around. Relax, you don't have to do it all game long. Can it be worse than BJ dribbling 15 seconds off the clock and passing to Smith for a long 2.
    Moose, shoot that elbow jumper. Smith, stop.
    linwood likes this.
  5. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2005
    Messages:
    4,409
    Likes Received:
    525
    Location:
    Flint
    My main question, did you watch this game. Arguing stats is great. But did you watch the game, and have an actual opinion about what you saw?

    PS, try going back 20 games. Instead of the whole season. What do you see as far as Singler's plus minus. I do not call this cherry picking. Its current reality.
  6. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    20,163
    Likes Received:
    2,022
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Dagobah
    Lee, you're ignoring TaS's point.
    linwood, Walter and basketbills like this.
  7. Menace

    Menace Bench Warmer

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2008
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    61
    Location:
    Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
  8. Menace

    Menace Bench Warmer

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2008
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    61
    Location:
    Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
    Why is it that if a player YOU like is minus it's because of his supporting cast (poor players surrounding him), but when Singler goes minus it's his own fault?

    Once again: you really think that you as a person are right about Singler (only by watching games) while the coaching staff, TV broadcasters and an entire organisation are rather positive about him. What do you know about Singler they don't? There must be a reason they are playing him (and don't tell me because the coach wants to loose games).

    I mean you have the right to have your opinion but i just don't understand why you think you have better insights about Singler then the Pistons Organisation themselves. You think they might be biased?
    basketbills likes this.
  9. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2008
    Messages:
    1,170
    Likes Received:
    801
    This isn't all that shocking, really. The team doesn't use Drummond effectively offensively (he usually only gets 6 or 7 shots a game and those are usually tip-ins), and defensively he's not really all that good fundamentally yet.

    PPP stats:
    When he and Monroe are on the court together: 1.051 offense/1.113 defense.
    Drum/Monroe on, Smith off: 1.133/1.106
    Drum/Smith on: 1.053/1.099
    Drum/Smith on, Monroe off: 1.094/1.055
    Drum on, Monroe/Smith off: .0943/1.121
    Monroe/Smith on: 1.056/1.08
    Monroe/Smith on: Drummond off: 1.091/1.01

    Basically, the Hydra is killing the team, both offensively and defensively, but with only two of them on, the team is pretty competitive. But without Monroe OR Smith (and with Drummond on), the team has problems. Basically, Drummond isn't good enough (with the talent available around him) to anchor the team by himself.

    I don't know if you can find a better statistical argument for getting rid of the Hydra than what's above.
    basketbills likes this.
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,351
    Likes Received:
    2,711
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    The frustrating part is that we don't testt the 2 out of 3 at a time game plan. It's such an obvious possible fix that only requires a tactful conversation, and the squashing of a mutiny or two.
  11. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2005
    Messages:
    4,409
    Likes Received:
    525
    Location:
    Flint
    My opinion is from watching the games. Then rewatching them, taking notes. And watching the stats too. So I have an opinion. In this post, you do not have one, as far as I can see, except to trust Dumars and the coaches. Dumars, well, what has he done in the past decade to warrant trust? And what has our new coach done to warrant any trust? Trust has to be earned, I will not give it freely. You can if you want to, but I do not believe that will get you anywhere.
  12. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    4,719
    Likes Received:
    1,388
    Gender:
    Male
    I like reading your point of view when you stick to the facts. Please drop this Danielle Steele narrative about the Cheeks-Singler relationship.
    linwood and basketbills like this.
  13. max

    max All-Star

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2005
    Messages:
    7,361
    Likes Received:
    358
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    my bunker in the Carribbean
    Dejavoo - I feel like I am reading about Michael Curry or Hunter from years ago.
    linwood likes this.
  14. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2005
    Messages:
    4,409
    Likes Received:
    525
    Location:
    Flint
    They say stats do not lie. But you can lie with stats. Not that I am saying you are lying. But without valid parameters for an experiment, results are invalid. Lets look at why the data is invalid. And clarify that your conclusion is that starting Smith at small forward is hurting the team.

    Consider my theory, which you can agree or disagree with: This coach is absolutely obsessed with getting playing time for Singler. And whether you agree with this or not, consider that the coach may be sabotaging the data, accidentally, or not.

    What does coach do if the starters are doing great to start the game: He makes early substitutions, almost always putting in Stuckey and Singler in by 7 or 8 minutes into the game at the latest.

    What if we start badly. Our bench comes in even quicker, not giving our starters any chance to regroup, straighten out any problems, and seeing if they can right the ship themselves.

    What if we are already behind to start the 3rd quarter, and we fall a few more points behind? Coach will sub as fast as two minutes into the 2nd half. In some cases, he does not even use our starting group in the 2nd half.

    Indeed, our starters, as a group, play very little together. Their time is pretty much never extended for good play, so never attempting to extend plus numbers, and is constantly cut off with any sign of poor play, cementing in minus numbers.

    With all this, looking at current state, the last 20 games to be specific, we can look at a real simple stat, our starters are around minus one quarter point per minute on the floor. That is pretty bad. Individually, they are all, save Drummond, plus per minute on the floor when not playing with the starting group of Jennings, Pope, Smith, Monroe, Drummond. Drums is about minus .176 / minute when on the floor with any sub on the floor. (.21 overall).

    Of note, two of our main subs, are real bad on the plus minus, with only Drums being near as bad. Bynum is the worst during this 20 game stretch, at minus .28 points per minute. Singler is at minus .15. In comparison, our worse starter besides Drummond is Smith at minus .094.

    Our starters are not rocking, but our bench guys, Singler and Bynum, are not helping any at all.

    Now, I looked at if our horrid bench had a bad effect on our starters in the opening of the 2nd half. Well, they are just as negative to start the 2nd half as they are to start the 1st half. But I still say, when the starters know their is no help coming off the bench, it is demoralizing.

    Singler, in the 20 games, had plus games of 3, 23, 13, 14, 21 during this stretch. Thats five plus games, with a total plus of 74. Compared to 15 games where he was minus to the tune of minus 145.

    Lastly, I will just mention the number of plus games for each player during this 20 games) Drums 6, Singler 5, Bynum 3 / 16 games, Smith 6, Jennings 9, Pope 7, Monroe 9. Stuckey 6/ 15 games, CV 2/6 gmes, Harrellson 6 of 16 games, JJ 6/10 games.
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2014
  15. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    4,719
    Likes Received:
    1,388
    Gender:
    Male
    Let's assume that this theory is in fact correct for a moment. That Cheeks is doing everything he possibly can to get the maximum amount of minutes for one Kyle Singler, no matter what the cost is. That he is willing to have the team lose games risk his job, his reputation, and his standing with all the other players.

    What would be the motive Lee? What's in it for Cheeks? Why would he be so obsessed? That is the part that doesn't make sense at all.
  16. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    20,163
    Likes Received:
    2,022
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Dagobah
    Insert wisenheimer comment about hair pulling and lipstick.
    Ernie the Slow Adult and linwood like this.
  17. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2005
    Messages:
    4,409
    Likes Received:
    525
    Location:
    Flint
    Well, regardless of the reason, we have seen it before. Curry getting starters minutes under Carlisle. That was more bizarre, as the whole thing played out across several teams.

    In Carlisle's 2nd year, I got all the same guff about criticizing Curry. Coaches knew more. How could I really know that Tay was a better choice for the minutes. Etc. Etc. Then, like now, I watched all the games, studied all the film. And had an opinion. A correct opinion. By the end of the year, nobody disagreed with me. Save Carlisle, who was shown the door, Curry himself, and Carlisle's assistant coach who was later seen playing Curry at power forward for Toronto. Totally bizarre.

    They say real life can be stranger than fiction. You tell me why Singler is getting minutes when he can't score against any NBA player nor defend any of them?
  18. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2005
    Messages:
    4,409
    Likes Received:
    525
    Location:
    Flint
    PS, my sources tell me it was actually Dumars who concocted the whole Curry thing, as Carlisle actually wanted to play Cardinal instead.(another player, despite playing very limited minutes, I pegged as a darn good player by simply taking time to study the film on him.)
  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,351
    Likes Received:
    2,711
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    Here's my theory. If cheeks was obsessed with getting Singler paying time, he'd start the guy. That would eliminate the need for all the concealing of the passion that he has for him.
    Laimbrane likes this.
  20. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    20,163
    Likes Received:
    2,022
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Dagobah
    The Passion of the Singler.
    linwood likes this.

Share This Page