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How about a little Aron Baynes love?

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by Laimbrane, Dec 6, 2016.

  1. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    Okay, so I feel like instigating a little conflict. Why? Because, that's why.

    Hate on Baynes if you want, but the reality is that when he's in the game, opponent FG% is 17% below average inside the restricted area. Overall, teams are averaging 0.993 points per possession (PPP) when he's on the court, vs. 1.094 PPP with Drummond on court. Put bluntly, the team is a better defensive team with Baynes on the court.

    But wait, isn't the knock on him that he doesn't rebound the ball? Yes. But the real question is: is the team suffering for it? Not really - when Drummond is subbed out for Baynes, other players pick up the slack:
    • Morris' rebound rate goes from 5.9% to 9.3%
    • Harris' goes from 7.6 to 8.7%
    • Leuer's goes from 9.2% to 16.8
    In fact, the team rebounds 50% of total opportunities with Drummond on court, and 50.8% of opponents' misses with Baynes on the court, which implies that Drummond getting all the boards may actually have a negative impact on the team (perhaps it leads to other players not fighting as hard for them and the Pistons consequently losing out on opportunities). More likely, though, such a small difference in rates is really more or less an indication that there isn't any difference between the two players at all.

    Could his rebounding be better? Maybe, and simply comparing his results to Drummond's doesn't paint the full picture - especially since the two play with different teammates. But it's one more piece of evidence in favor of that old coaching adage that rebounding is a team effort, and the reality is that Baynes' defensive percentages over Drummond more than make up for his rebounding "deficiencies" (Baynes' fourth quarter defensive numbers are sick: opponents shoot splits of -33/-20/-15.5 from 0-6 ft/0-10 ft/15+ ft).

    But what about on offense? The team averages 1.094 PPP with Drummond on the court but only 1.045 with Baynes on the court. That certainly indicates that Baynes is having a negative impact offensively.

    Then again, Baynes plays with different players. It might help to determine how different players play with him on the court. When I run the numbers, though, Drummond clearly helps almost all players' EFG% (Ish, Thrilliard, Stajo, and 1 game of RJ have better EFG's). So I now have no doubt that Drummond is superior offensively.

    So it's a little of thunder and lightning - Baynes is far better defensively, Drummond is far better offensively. But between the two, the Pistons have a higher PPP margin with Baynes on the court than they do with Drummond, because Drummond is a worse defensive player than Baynes is an offensive player. So take that for what it's worth.
     
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  2. Nemo

    Nemo Over 60 Club Forum Donor

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    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Baynes is aware of his own limitations, so he plays smart basketball to get results.
    Drummond thinks he has no limitations, so he just plays basketball expecting to get results.

    Drummond is obviously the superior player, but he takes his talents for granted. He's getting paid like a franchise player, but doesn't yet have the mentality/maturity to be a franchise player.
     
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  4. Mossberg

    Mossberg Bench Warmer 3x Fantasy Champion

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    I wonder how much the #s are skewed because Baynes comes in and plays against the opponents second team scrubs bigs. But he does get burn during crunch time when SVG pulls Dre and also started the game Dre missed but maybe that's too small of a sample size.

    I'm torn on Baynes. His #s can look good but when watching the games, he often doesn't pass the eye test.
     
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  5. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    No one has ever passed my eye test.
     
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  6. basketbills

    basketbills All-Star Forum Donor

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    Baynesy won't pass many eye tests.
     
  7. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    [​IMG]
    Baynes can't believe you're talking smack about him.
     
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  8. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Baynes is not a problem. He is a second-tier center, signed to come off the bench. He's doing what he's been asked to do and he's delivering exactly what we expected. He's playing to his contract. He's our third highest paid bench big, and that's actually kinda close. He's only making $1M more than what we're still paying Josh Smith.
     
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  9. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Baynes helps us in a lot of non-obvious ways. His screens are superb. He is a willing passer.

    He plays solid big body defense, even if he struggles to rebound.

    We could do worse. He could be a sulker like Darko. A guy with all-world talent but 3rd world maturity.

    I love that he came from the Spurs system, so he knows what it takes to play at a high level.
     
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  10. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Also, I am pretty sure Baynes is our most physical player. Pope and Morris come close, but Baynes is the one guy who will lay the lumber on someone.
     
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  11. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    I am ok with Baynes being our backup. The real problem I have with Baynes is the mask and the hair do.:panda: He also stands around with his hands on his hips during the break to rest his small paws. Actually I am not sure how big or small his hands are...I just know everytime someone passes the rock to him below the waist or those hips, he fumbles it away....especially if he is in the paint. I swear most of his points points come from free throws or offensive putbacks.

    Dre has only played 264 more minutes than Baynes, but his output is still proportionately larger out rebounding him 275 to 94. For blocks it's 23 to 7 and for steals it's Dre 35 t0 8. Baynes is playing his backup role, you just wish there was no drop off in offensive propensity or the fear that Dre poses to the other team when he is in there. If Dre could get his FT shooting up to 60% and played with intensity like Blake Griffin, he would get no complaints. In fact if Baynes played like Blake, he would get know complaints either :biggrin::bs:

    ...

    Tu
     
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  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    We don't have the greatest team from a hair perspective. Udrih's is embarrassing and tows Baynes's down with it a bit.
     
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  13. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I think their hair is great.
     
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  14. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    Baynes does his job and we're about to find out how hard it is to get someone to do that job very soon. I hope we can get a steal in the draft or beef up Ellenson to give us some run at the 5-spot
     
  15. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 5x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    What about Boban?
     
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  16. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    The question is, if we had the opportunity to re-up Baynes, should we do it?
     
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  17. Nemo

    Nemo Over 60 Club Forum Donor

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    Yea...if we can get somebody to bite on Lurch's contract.
     
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  18. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 5x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    SVG has said this isn't even in the realm of possibilities. I thought it was strange that they got a backup (Bobo) for the backup (Baynes) over a year in advance.
     
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  19. C-Bill

    C-Bill All-Star

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    I just want to mark this thread with my offical support for AB.:djparty:

    He will be missed. :chopper:
     
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  20. C-Bill

    C-Bill All-Star

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    I know Bobo can dunk without jumping. But, if he was our backup today, we'd be in trouble. He makes AB's agility look like that of a gazelle.
     
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