Expectations and acquisitions

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by J-Train, Jan 19, 2012.

  1. Nemo

    Nemo Fantasy-Football Snub Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2006
    Messages:
    12,306
    Likes Received:
    1,502
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Lake Elmo
    That woulda been the sane choice. To lock up players and lose cap space should only happen when a player has proven that their future looks promising. That was not the case with Stuckey and Prince. Not for those dollars.......and the fact that nobody else seemed interested in them.
     
  2. webz

    webz All-Star Snub Administrator 2x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    3,465
    Likes Received:
    756
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Melbourne, Australia
    I know you've got the finger on the pulse over there Low, but it's not up to Portland. Wallace can opt out and become an UFA at the end of this season. There is some indication he will so he can seek a better deal. We will at least have an opportunity to make a bid.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-b...-won-t-sign-extension-portland-235921047.html
     
  3. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    4,787
    Likes Received:
    1,509
    Gender:
    Male
    I would only want Gerald Wallace here if we get rid of Prince at the same time. Wallace starting at the 3 with Jerebko backing him up at the 3 would be great as you'll get consistent hustle and rebounding at the SF position which few teams in the league can boast.

    I see a few problems though:
    1. Wallace is not a good defender. He'll need a tough enforcer in the paint to help. We don't have that.
    2. Because we don't have a tough defending big, the coach will try to play Wallace at the 4, which is a horrible idea.
    3. The real danger is signing Wallace without dumping Tay first. That would mean smallball to the death.

    A starting lineup of Knight-Stuckey-Wallace-Maxiell-Monroe would be formidable. The only quality player off the bench would be Jerebko. Then use Chaz and Gordon's expirings to upgrade Wallace to Kevin Love-type player and suddenly you have a very serious playoff team.
     
  4. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    4,787
    Likes Received:
    1,509
    Gender:
    Male
  5. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    4,787
    Likes Received:
    1,509
    Gender:
    Male
    Ok, that Utah rumor got me going. What would you guys think of a Gordon/Knight swap for Harris/Kanter?
     
  6. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2005
    Messages:
    6,781
    Likes Received:
    2,888
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    Looks like somebody took a poop in our pool.
     
    Walter likes this.
  7. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2005
    Messages:
    4,398
    Likes Received:
    830
    Location:
    Oakland, CA
    love your sig walter. We could say...we are the 99% ...of Pistons fans not going to the Palace these days. Except Warthog. He's still going I think...
     
    Walter likes this.
  8. basketbills

    basketbills All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2005
    Messages:
    3,899
    Likes Received:
    1,015
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Howard Stubb's garage
    I'm hoping Nemo doesn't respond with a picture.
     
  9. Nemo

    Nemo Fantasy-Football Snub Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2006
    Messages:
    12,306
    Likes Received:
    1,502
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Lake Elmo
    I've been asked to refrain from displaying real poop images.........

    However, a picture of Wendy's Chili should suffice............
     
    basketbills likes this.
  10. J-Train

    J-Train Team Captain Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2006
    Messages:
    589
    Likes Received:
    260
    How about free agents next year?

    I'll throw out a name- Omer Asik. He could be a heck of a big coming off of the bench. Monroe, Davis/Drummond/Robinson, Asik, and a little JJ would be a nice bigman rotation.
     
  11. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    4,787
    Likes Received:
    1,509
    Gender:
    Male
    No to Asik. I followed him very closely since the world tourney where the Turks placed second. He's way overrated. He's injury-prone and is really not tough enough. I'm not saying he's weak. He is a big strong guy, but mentally he's not tough. You hit him hard a few times and he's timid for the rest of the game. If he comes CHEAP, he would be a serviceable 4th big off the bench. He would be a good replacement when Big Ben takes his talents to the courtroom this summer.

    Another Turk I followed is Semih Erden, who I think is a better 7 footer than Asik. He started several games and played well in Boston in his rookie year when O'Nealx2 were injured. He's also got a lot of hustle & passion for the game. Think of him as a bigger JJ.

    Talking about cheap centers for the bench, Ian Mahinmi from Dallas is going to be unrestriced FA this summer. Might be worth a look.

    Depending on what happens with Superman in Orlando, Ryan Anderson may become available. However, I don't think his play really fits well with Monroe.

    Mr. Knucklehead himself, JaVale McGee, is a restricted FA this summer, which should be a prime target IMO. Monroe-McGee would be a very good front court.

    Probably out of reach, but man I would love it if we get one of these:
    - Deron Williams
    - Gerald Wallace
    - Roy Hibbert
    - Dwight Howard
    - Andrew Bynum
     
  12. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2005
    Messages:
    6,781
    Likes Received:
    2,888
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    LMFAO!!!
     
  13. J-Train

    J-Train Team Captain Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2006
    Messages:
    589
    Likes Received:
    260
    I was thinking of Asik as a 20 minute guy off of the bench, or maybe a short minute starter. I would agree that he's not a guy who should be leading your team, but I could see him giving us 7-8 points, 5+ rebounds, and 1.5 blocks in 20 minutes. He's a presence. I haven't seen him get punked, and then turtle, but I'll watch for it.

    Ian Mahinmi is interesting, but he just doesn't seem to produce defensively as much as he should. I've seen him watch too many guys get lay ups, instead of challenging.

    As for Erden, I've watched him a few times, and I can't recall ever being impressed. I'll take another look at him.

    I'm thinking of inexpensive shot blockers/rebounders, and maybe a young wing with potential.
     
  14. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2005
    Messages:
    6,781
    Likes Received:
    2,888
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    So, the guys that Joe should have signed instead of Prince and Stuckey?
     
  15. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2005
    Messages:
    15,573
    Likes Received:
    3,555
    Location:
    Michigan
    If you don't sign guys like Prince, don't you then lose the ability to later make trades?
     
  16. Nemo

    Nemo Fantasy-Football Snub Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2006
    Messages:
    12,306
    Likes Received:
    1,502
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Lake Elmo

    :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod: :nod:
     
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,621
    Likes Received:
    2,955
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    You just lose the ability to buy FA's.

    Keep in mind that we don't have a single player on the team right now who came here via trade.
     
  18. max

    max All-Star

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2005
    Messages:
    7,424
    Likes Received:
    420
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    my bunker in the Carribbean
    I did not mind Prince too much as this contract is more in line with what he is worth.

    I would have liked to have just picked up Stuckey's 1 year option that he had left on the previous contract and took our chances this summer. If he had a great year and took another offer then that's the way it would have went.
     
    BallDon'tLie likes this.
  19. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2008
    Messages:
    1,198
    Likes Received:
    845

    Detroit doesn't have the ability to buy FAs, unless they overpay. It's not a destination town, and without a winning team, there's just no reason for marquee players to look to the Pistons. Dumars made the mistake of bringing in a couple guys for more money than they were worth, but that's what he knows it takes, and it was a risk that didn't pay off. Until the Pistons get back to the top, they're not even going to get guys like McDyess. Dumars has to draft shrewdly, and get teams to overpay for his already overpaid assets. I'm sure he expected Gordon to be a lot better than he has been, and I would imagine that he was hoping that even if Gordon only averaged 18 a night but hit some clutch threes and carried the team on occasion, and then he could trade him to a contender for some young talent to build a core around. For a number of reasons, it hasn't worked out. Combine that with the dearth of talent influx due to picking late in the first round for most of the past decade, and having to deal with their core leaving, and you can see why the Pistons lack the talent to compete. Boston's going to be in the same boat next year, but at least they're a big enough market that is capable of luring free agents on location alone.

    But as for the Pistons, right now they are in the position of having guys that are, for all intents and purposes, untradeable. There's nobody on this team with a reasonable dollar value that other teams would want and the Pistons would want to get rid of. Gordon's production doesn't justify his cost right now - perhaps next year, with an expiring contract, some team will take a flier on him and trade a late first, or a couple young guys with upside, but no way that happens with another year and $13 million left to pay. The other problem is getting that value back in a trade. Dick around with ESPN's Trade Machine for a little bit - it's hard to find players on good teams that match up to within 125% of that 11 million that aren't currently the backbones of their team. The easiest thing would be to amnesty him, but there's really no point in doing that yet, because the Pistons have nobody to spend that dough on.

    Plus, amnestying Gordon would mean not being able to amnesty CV. If there's a more overpaid player in the league right now, I don't know him. There's no way that anyone is going to pay $7.5 and $8 million over the next couple years for a broken down stretch forward that can't move sideways. Again, there's no reason to do it quite yet, on the off chance that some team tosses a second-round pick Detroit's way, but that's a shot in the dark and the inevitable result is that CV gets amnestied.

    I've spent a long time this morning and afternoon tweaking this, so let's take a look at the performance that Detroit gets for its money:
    [​IMG]
    *Now obviously PER isn't a perfect way to analyze players, but it provides a quantitative start.

    A couple things I should point out about this graph, because I'm sure at least a few of you are looking at the "Log($)" and "sqrt(PER)" columns and going "WTF?"
    1) For the mathematically inclined/interested - a logarithmic function is the inverse of the exponential function, sort of like multiplication is the opposite of division and addition is the opposite of subtraction. If you take any number, you can multiply it by three and divide that result by three to get the same number again. Same deal with adding three and subtracting three. Here, if I take a number and multiply it by itself five times, I can take the logarithm of that result (with the base of the original number) and get five. The logarithm cancels out the exponent.
    The reason I'm using it is because salaries in the NBA are not linear - there are a bunch of players at the bottom and a few at the top, and the difference between cost of players at the bottom and players at the top is not the same. In order to correct for this, taking the logarithm gives you the "power" of that dollar value, relative to ten. (As an example, log(10) = 1 because 10^1 = 10, log(100) = 2 because 10^2 = 100, and log(1000) = 3 because 10^3 = 1000.) It's not a perfect correction because that 10 really has no real connection to anything, but the funny thing about logarithms is that when you're correcting, the base doesn't matter as all of them will make it linear.
    2) Why linear vs. exponential? Because there's a premium on high-performing players. There's no simple formula that says X, Y, and Z number of points and rebounds and assists is worth A and B and C number of dollars - having one guy score/rebound 20/10 per game is not the same as having two guys that score/rebound 10/5. The first guy should make more than the other two combined because he's consolidating production; even if the team puts out a 20/10 guy and a 3/2 guy, it's still better off (and those 3/2 guys are really easy to find). So when you have players that are significantly better, their dollar value increases exponentially (actually, it increases logistically, curving off because of max salaries, but I'm dealing with technical limitations and this is a reasonable alternative). Hence the logarithm to correct for that.
    3) I took the square root of PERs under the assumption that most of the players in the league will be somewhere in the middle, which creates a quadratic trend (majority in the middle, few on the ends - this is probably actually a binomial distribution, but again - technical limitations, and a quadratic is close enough). The correction for a quadratic trend? The square root.
    4) Taking the ratio of the two, we come up with a Per/$ Adjusted figure, which roughly gives an adjusted value of the player where each decimal increase is the same as any other (the difference between Maxiell and Daye is the same as the difference between Daye and Wilkins, for example). This is how the list is sorted.
    5) Lastly, for a lark I multiplied this amount by the number of minutes the player has played this season to get a rough idea of their dollar value to the team. As you can see, unsurprisingly Monroe is way above everyone else.

    So looking at the chart we can see that the Pistons have three guys performing above the league average for their salary, and that's Monroe and Macklin (significantly so, I might add), and Stuckey. Jerebko is at the league average, and everyone else is way below it. In other words, the Pistons are still underpaying for Stuckey's, Macklin's, and Monroe's performances, paying an appropriate amount to Jerebko, and overpaying everyone else.

    Why does this matter? Basically, this whole thing is just putting numbers to what everyone already knows - the Pistons don't have any real trade assets, like a Grant Hill or a Jerry Stackhouse. If you're Dumars, in order to trade players, you're going to have to convince a team that Gordon or CV can return to their old form in order to justify their cost, or that Daye's upside is enough to merit trading a pick or a player that fits better. The first is going to be hard as hell - look at how far below the league average Gordon and CV are in terms of production value - and the problem with trading Daye now would be that by having spent a lottery pick on him, Joe would be buying high and selling low. That's bad business.

    Trading Daye is a possibility, but they need to showcase him if they want to deal him in order to inflate his value. Put him in situations that maximize his ability to succeed. Play him at the 2 and run the offense through him in garbage time. Play him more against inferior competition in order to increase his FG%, that type of thing. Hype him up, in other words. But the Pistons right now are trying to win (at least Knight, Monroe, and Frank are), and Daye is a defensive liability that lacks basketball instincts, is terrible with the ball in his hands, and sits behind Gordon and Stuckey at the 2 spot, where he would be most effective. It's a bad situation, and Daye being low on that chart above is limiting the franchise in the long run.

    As far as the other players, it would be pretty easy, I would assume, to find a taker for Knight even with his low PER/$, but you don't want to trade him away yet - you can see the potential there, and his work ethic and competitive spirit rub off on the other players. Same with Jerebko. Obviously, if Joe could swing a trade, that would be great. But given the cost of the players and their associated production, I don't see that happening.

    So without FAs coming here, and having no actual trade value, Joe has to build through the draft, or hit the free agent lottery like he did with Billups. He has a massive uphill climb on this one.
     
    coynejeremy, webz, linwood and 2 others like this.
  20. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2005
    Messages:
    4,398
    Likes Received:
    830
    Location:
    Oakland, CA
    I'd like to see a similar analysis on the Nets. The Nets cleared cap space and came away from the free agent bonanza with egg on their face. No one wanted to go there and lose when they could stay with their current team and lose. They gambled their future on Deron Williams and the chance that him, a lottery pick and some cash could entice a big FA when mere cash could not.
     

Share This Page