Brandon Knight bust potential..?

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by blueadams, Nov 7, 2012.

  1. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    4,913
    Likes Received:
    1,664
    Gender:
    Male
    I'd rather have Knight never become an all-star and play with a chip on his shoulder, pissed off at everybody in every game, and win a championship.
     
  2. J-Train

    J-Train Team Captain Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2006
    Messages:
    589
    Likes Received:
    260
    There is almost zero chance that Knight becomes a bust. How good will he be? That's the question. He has a great stroke and is already a pretty good defender. Is he Rose, or Irving, or Paul? No, and he'll never be that guy. However, I could see him going to a couple of all star games.

    I'd like to see him average 16+ points and 6+ assists this year. If he can do that, then I'll be very happy with his progress. I agree with whoever said that he would be a better player if he had better players around him. Give Drummond a year to work on the pick and roll. Give Knight and Monroe time to work on their pick and pop game. Give Knight a legit 20 ppg guy on the wing. I could see Knight developing into a 17 ppg 10+ assist guy. That's not bad.
     
    coynejeremy likes this.
  3. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    4,901
    Likes Received:
    858
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Saginaw, Michigan
    You see a lot of stuff that I don't see. Do you also see dead people like that little kid in the Sixth Sense?
     
  4. J-Train

    J-Train Team Captain Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2006
    Messages:
    589
    Likes Received:
    260
    I've watched the Lions all of my life. Does that count?

    I just see Knight's floor as a Mike Bibby type PG. If he can get a pick and pop/ pick and roll game going with his bigs, then he could put up some solid assist numbers.
     
    KGREG likes this.
  5. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2005
    Messages:
    6,912
    Likes Received:
    3,116
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    He already has a good pick and palm game going with Tayshaun.
     
    roscoe36, kpaav and coynejeremy like this.
  6. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    4,913
    Likes Received:
    1,664
    Gender:
    Male
    Here's a positive(ish) article on Knight:
    The First 25 - Has Brandon Knight Improved? - Detroit Bad Boys

    This made me think of one thing that I suspected: Knight's TOs are more due to his sloppy ball handling than his ability to pass the rock. So I did a little research. According to bb reference, this year Knight has logged 132 assists and 86 turnovers for a putrid AST/TO ratio of 1.53. 82games.com however provides a little more insight. According to them, only 46 of his turnovers were bad passes, so his assits/badpass ratio is 2.9. In that category, he is actually slightly doing better this year (2.7 last year). Doing a little bit of math, he's turning the ball over 52% while passing and 48% of the time dribbling around.

    Here are the same stats for a few PGs this year to put this in perspective:

    Player/Assist to badpass ratio/Assist to TOV ratio/% of TOs while dribbling

    Cream of the crop
    CP3/6.3/4.1/35%
    Parker/6.2/3.6/42%
    Westbrook/5.1/2.7/47%
    Rondo/4.5/3.2/29%
    D-Will/4.0/2.7/33%
    Nash (last year)/3.7/2.9/22%
    Billups (2010/11 - as last season he was hurt)/3.6/2.2/39%

    Young Guns
    Jennings/5.5/2.6/53%
    Linsanity/5.0/2.2/56%
    Holiday/4.8/2.3/52%
    Wall (last year)/4.0/2.1/48%
    Lillard/3.7/2.1/43%
    Curry/3.7/2.1/43%
    Rubio (last year)/3.6/2.6/28%
    Irving/3.0/1.4/53%
    Knight/2.9/1.5/48%

    So, looking at these numbers Knight is the most similar to Kyrie Irving. Knight turns the ball over more while passing and Irving gets it poked out of his hands more.

    Still trying to make sense of these numbers, but in general, a PG that turns the ball over more while trying to assist someone is a better ball handler, so long as their A/TO ratio is respectable. CP3, Rondo, Nash and to a certain extent Williams fall into that category. The scoring slasher PGs would tend to have more TOs handling the ball, like Parker and Westbrook.

    I think Knight belongs in that second category. So, all things being equal, if he can bring his A/TO ratio over 2.0 he'd be about as effective as John Wall.

    Then I looked at Stuckey's numbers. His numbers are 7.0/2.9/59%. So almost two thirds of his turnovers have nothing to do with passing. When he does pass the ball, he's much better at it than Knight. Ok, let's look at his last year when Knight wasn't around and he was solely playing PG, the 10-11 campaign: 5.0/2.3/54%. Holy crap batman, these numbers suggest that Stuckey is as good a ball handler as Linsanity, Jrue Holiday or Brandon Jennings.

    So, essentially, Stuckey is a better passer than Knight, but Knight is the better ball handler. Huh?

    I know I should never have attempted to analyze advanced stats. Now I feel weak, uncertain, disgusted and incoherent. Where's that Andre Drummond thread?
     
    brofmfa, basketbills, Nemo and 3 others like this.
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,734
    Likes Received:
    3,081
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    One way to explain it would be that Stuckey is drawing more defenders when he drives. That makes it more likely that he will be stripped or get an offensive foul (i.e. inflate his non passing turnovers), but it is also more likely that he will get an easy assist if he dumps it off.

    It's an interesting thing to try to draw out of the stats though. Not sure how you would really do it.

    Some problems:
    - you'd really want to know how much time each guy spent dribbling
    - you'd want to know if it was easy dribbling (waiting for Rip to curl around Big Ben) or challenging (driving for example)

    This isn't perfect, but consider the following:

    Inside FGA/ ast/ passtov/ dribtov/ Charge
    Knight: 144/ 132/ 46/ 36/ 4
    Stuck: 146/ 105/ 15/ 15/ 6

    This tells me that on 276 potential drives into the lane, Knight lost his dribble 36 times and committed 4 offensive fouls (14%)
    On 251 potential drives into the lane, Stuckey lost his dribble 15 times and charged 6 times (8%)

    Judging by that, it looks like Stuckey protects the ball better when he drives, nearly twice as well.

    [It makes some assumptions that are probably wrong, but hopefully for both guys equally. It assumes that all assists are generated through penetration, that all FTA were the result of being fouled in the paint, and that all dribbling and charging turnovers were committed in the paint. For inside FGA, I used all FGA in the paint + 50% of all FTA to get the estimate.]


    Overall, Stuckey and Knight have almost exactly the same assist rate per minute (RS is at 5.2 per 36 and BK is at 5.4). However, their turnover rates are much different. BK is at 3.5 and Rodney is at 1.8.

    If my assumptions above are anywhere near accurate, then it would seem that Knight is a worse ball handler and also a less efficient passer than Stuckey. However, he has an advantage over Stuckey in the shooting department. The main reason for that is that Knight is shooting an amazing .435 from deep while Stuckey is at .235 and only attempts them 60% as often. That 3-point shooting for Knight puts him 5th in the league among point guards. Also, he is 13th in the entire league among players who attempt more than 2 treys per game (that weeds out the guys who only shoot when 100% open like Bonner).

    But back the problem at hand- we just don't have the specific details we need to nail it statistically. If you had video archives and logged the plays looking for this, you could probably take a sampling of 10 games and come very close to the right answer.
     
    brofmfa likes this.
  8. linwood

    linwood All-Star

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2005
    Messages:
    4,452
    Likes Received:
    1,486
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Seattle, WA

    For statistics, those are big assumptions; to the point that I think it would make analysis unreliable, approaching random.

    However, if you correlate your results with visual analysis, I think it holds up. Both Knight and Stuckey work the slash and dish game. When Knight hoists a jumpshot, I am often impressed with how smooth it looks. When Stuckey hits a shot, I am often surprised to not hear him yell HEY! and head toward the line.
     
  9. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,734
    Likes Received:
    3,081
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    Agreed. It's too hard to rank ball handlers based solely on the available tracked stats. It really seems to be a hole in the system.

    You can more accurately figure out good shooters, passers, defenders, etc. This is more like trying to figure out who sets the best picks by looking at offensive fouls only. It's just not enough.
     
  10. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2005
    Messages:
    15,937
    Likes Received:
    3,882
    Location:
    Michigan
    Does it really matter how you get your turnovers? They are bad irregardless.
     
  11. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2005
    Messages:
    20,777
    Likes Received:
    2,615
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Dagobah
    Have some Cheerios so you can cheer up Bill!
     
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,734
    Likes Received:
    3,081
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    They aren't that bad. The top point guards turn the ball over quite a bit. It's all about the balance between risk taking and mistakes.
     
  13. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2009
    Messages:
    4,913
    Likes Received:
    1,664
    Gender:
    Male
    Makes sense TaS. There's just not enough information to make a call one way or the other.
     
  14. Whitepine

    Whitepine First Round Draft Pick Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2010
    Messages:
    30
    Likes Received:
    17
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Michigan
    Question, who’s game do you like better Brandon’s or Kemba Walkers?
     
  15. Slippy

    Slippy All-Star Administrator Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2005
    Messages:
    4,412
    Likes Received:
    861
    Location:
    Oakland, CA
    If Kemba were here, he wouldn't be playing like that and we'd want Brandon instead.
     
  16. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2005
    Messages:
    17,734
    Likes Received:
    3,081
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Chicaaago
    Probably Kemba for me, but not drastically.
     
  17. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2012
    Messages:
    2,071
    Likes Received:
    1,175
    Gender:
    Male
    No thanks. Kemba is way above his baseline at the moment. Ill take a consistent ok starter BK over an up and down Kemba.
     
  18. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2010
    Messages:
    3,060
    Likes Received:
    1,301
    BK isn't consistent, Kemba isn't either but he's probably more consistent than BK.
     
  19. J-Train

    J-Train Team Captain Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2006
    Messages:
    589
    Likes Received:
    260
    Kemba probably has a better feel for the game than Knight, but considerably less talent. Knight feels like a Jason Terry/ Mike Bibby type player. Walker feels like a tiny SG. I would say that Kemba Walker is probably putting up points on a bad team. Every time I watch the Bobcats, it seems like he's the guy who is dominating the ball.

    At this point, I would take Knight's length and perimeter shooting over Walker's ability to get buckets on a team that is even worse than the Pistons.
     
    The Panda and Mogilny like this.
  20. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2010
    Messages:
    3,060
    Likes Received:
    1,301
    Solid and spot on assessment.
     

Share This Page