Home Atlanta Hawks Friday Jan 4 2013

Discussion in 'January 2013' started by roscoe36, Oct 29, 2012.

  1. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    Don't get it twisted, I'm well aware of Will's limitations, I too get frustrated when he starts doing his Allen Iverson impersonations.

    Plus I can't take him AND Greg Monroe yelling on every missed lay up. There's only so many "AYE"s and "AND-1"s a brotha can take!
  2. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    You don't like stats, but how else are you going to factor in Bynum's lack of D. Sure he scored 31 in the Atlanta game, and was plus 6 for the game. Just plus 6 in 36 minutes. That is not setting the world on fire.

    Bynum has not been positive in the last two games.

    Also, your assertion that Stuckey is so bad - how would you know how well Stuckey can do with the current 2nd unit? It has only existed for 7 games really, and Stuckey did not play in 3 of them and was injured in a 4th.

    You want to eliminate the two Wizards games from consideration? Then you down to just five games to look at, with Stuckey only being healthy for a full game for just one game - Friday's win over the Hawks. In which Bynum was minus 6 while Stuckey was plus 19. So you just got a one game look at Stuckey really, and you hate his plus 19 game? Cause you don't like stats.

    The other game Stuckey played in - the loss to the Hawks, again, stuckey dished 11 assists in that game. And socred a lot of points. Why not give it a few more games of Stuckey playing in this very new system before you become to sure he can't play in it.
  3. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    Eye test Lee, eye test. It's not about stats on paper and +/-, it's about a system. Stuckey (nor Knight) cannot execute a pick and roll as good as Will Bynum, PERIOD! Bynum is the best passer on this team, Bynum is the PG that serves Big Dre lob after lob (something that was demonstrated early in the season). Now, I'll concede that Will Bynum is not to be confused with an everyday starting PG, but he's clearly better suited as to be the Off The Bench Sparkplug than Rodney Stuckey is.
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  4. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    If you want Drummond and Monroe on the court together (Crazy how this hasn't caused more of an uproar.) then I think you want Bynum on the court instead of Stuckey.

    Bynum has been a very effective defender at times since he's been here. Again, playing with that bench has allowed him to do what he does best.

    Having Stuckey out of the way also potentially opens up the opportunity for the Ken English of the world to play.
  5. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Ceteris Paribus amigo. +/- is almost as abused as 36 minute stats were back at the Detroit News.

    According to +/- Austin Daye might be the greatest basketball player in the Eastern Conference, and Will Bynum shouldn't be on a winning team, let alone playing 25+ minutes a night.

    +/- by and large, is cherry picking. Who was Bynum up against? Who was he on the floor with? What was the time and score? There are a lot of factors that contribute towards the +/- figure. Using that figure isolated from the facts that created it isn't good argument IMO.

    All of us acknowledge Bynum is not a good defender, and can get carried away on offense. But we also see all of the stuff Will does, every NBA starting PG stuff, that Stuckey and Knight simply cannot do. The fact they can't do those things, is a big reason why we've had a dysfunctional team the last two years. LOOK at what a real PG like Damon Lillard is doing in Portland.

    Back to Will's +/-, he was minus 6 last night. Of which 8 of those were pts were scored in 90 seconds by the Hawks during their comeback run. If not for those 90 seconds, Will was positive in his other 15 minutes of play. Now maybe you want to judge guys based on 1/10th of their playing time, but I think that's perhaps missing the point.
  6. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    Daye is plus heavily plus on the season so far. Not just from his scoring, which has been impressive, but from his defense which helps make the buckets count. For the season, in contrast, Bynum is negative. If you look at the last three games of our win streak - Bynum is exactly even. In the same 3 games, Daye is plus 34. Who do you really think is winning games for us? Don't like the stats, then listen to observations - despite some good play from Bynum of late, you also see him lost at times. No, he is not a point guard. He will make some plays, have good games, but basically he will aways revert to being lost and selecting to call his own number.

    However, I will be the first to defend Will Bynum on his poor plus minus stats this season. The bench units he has played with have often reaked. Just recently, with CV and Daye spreading the floor for the 2nd unit, Bynum has done better. Wow, not even negative these past few games, which is a rarity for him. (Try finding any 3 games from earlier in the season, before he was benched, where he had a plus overall for those 3 games.) Anyway, my argument with kgreg is not about plus minus stats, but if Bynum should play over Stuckey. He is citing an extremely small sample size of games, and glorifying Bynum based basically on a few games from the Atlanta game thru the Bucks game, where he was plus 29 over the 3 games. Great, the only such 3 game stretch for him this season. Good for him. But you just can't forget so easily all the times Bynum has come up the floor with no hint of what to do with the ball, dribbling for a while before hot-potatoing it to the next guy. You can't forget all the times the opposing guard has ignored Bynum's presence and nailed a 3 over him while Bynum was looking up at the play. Or his zero presence inside. Your emergency point guard can have a good game or two. Great. But don't decide, based on a few games, to quit playing the guy who gets to the line more than the rest of your team combined some nights. Lets see Stuckey backup Knight, only as our backup point guard, and see how that goes.

    PS, Stuckey is heavily negative for the season himself - but he has an excuse. He played in that starting unit of Knight, Stuckey, Tay, JMAX, Monroe for about the first 10 games of the season, where pretty much all his negative for the year comes from up to this point. (Pretty much all in the first 7 games, where are starting unit reaked extremely.)



    Start: Knight, Middleton, Daye, Monroe, Drummond.

    2nd unit: Stuckey, English, Singler, JMAX, Kravtsov.

    other 3 dressed: Bynum, CV, Tay

    Not dressed: JJ, Maggette

    Play starters first and last 8 minutes of each half. 2nd unit plays the 4 minutes before and after each quarter break. The 2nd unit, if it is working well enough, plays some extra 2nd quarter minutes, and a couple of extra minutes in the 4th quarter, targeting to bring the starters back with 6 minutes to go in the game. About, on average, 31 minutes for the starters, and 17 for the 2nd unit.
  7. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Knight and stuckey are both combo guards. So combo them now that stuck is out of his slump. Singler came back to earth a month ago and will help spread the floor further on the bench unit.
  8. kpaav

    kpaav Team Captain Forum Donor

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    When did we decide Bynum is such a great outside shooter? He has career .270 from deep. He is in a groove now, but I would always go under a screen with him.
  9. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I think career numbers for bench players can be pretty misleading. Bynum is nailing his jumpers now.
  10. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    On a screen and roll he doesn't need to be a great 3pt shooter, he just needs to come off the screen as a threat the shoot the ball, Knight is simply not a good pull up jump shooter off the dribble, Bynum isn't a great one, but he has enough confidence in his mid range shot to actually take and make the shot, meaning defenses have to at least honor it. I mean dang y'all, watch the games this stuff ain't rocket science.
  11. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I personally think that Bynum's 3-point streak was a miracle. There is so much crazy motion in his stroke... even a hitch. To me, he looks like he'd settle in to being a sub .300 shooter from deep. I trust him on FT line J's though and really like his ability to convert on layups given his stature. His hops really help.

    His assists are value added assists for the most part.
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm curious as to how accurate rookie 36 minute stats are. Here is how I will test it. Let's look at 36 minute stats for Pistons rookies since 2004 and then compare to their eventual career per 36 minute stats. So, year 1 vs all years. I'll just go points, rebounds, assists to keep it simple.

    ALL STATS SHOWN ARE PER 36 MIN, and actual average mpg are shown as reference.

    Darko-
    10.9/ 9.7/ 1.6 (in 4.7 minutes per game rookie year)
    11.7/ 8.2/ 1.7 (in 18.5 minutes per game for a 468 game career)

    Delfino-
    9.1/ 4.3/ 3.0 (in 15.3 mpg)
    12.5/ 5.8/ 2.8 (in 22.6 mpg)

    Maxiell-
    13.6/ 6.3/ 0.7 (in 6.1 mpg)
    11.6/ 8.2/ 0.8 (in 18.8 mpg)

    Amir's is weird since he only played 39 total minutes in his rookie year and 124 minutes in year 2 as he was in the D-league for most of it. I'll use his per 36 from year 3, which were his first real stint with the team-
    10.4/ 11.1/ 1.4 (in 12.3 mpg)
    11.7/ 9.5/ 1.5 (in 19.2 mpg)

    Afflalo
    10.2/ 5.1/ 1.9 (in 12.9 mpg)
    13.4/ 3.9/ 2.3 (in 25.4 mpg)

    Stuckey
    14.5/ 4.3/ 5.3 (in 19.0 mpg)
    16.5/ 3.8/ 5.3 (in 29.7 mpg)

    Jerebko
    12.0/ 7.7/ 0.9 (in 27.9 mpg)
    12.6/ 7.6/ 1.0 (in 24.9 mpg)

    Daye
    13.7/ 6.8/ 1.3 (in 13.3 mpg)
    13.2/ 6.6/ 1.8 (in 16.2 mpg)

    Summers
    11.9/ 4.0/ 1.4 (in 9.2 mpg)
    12.2/ 3.5/ 1.2 (in 10.0 mpg)

    Monroe
    12.2/ 9.7/ 1.7 (in 27.8 mpg)
    15.2/ 10.3/ 2.4 (in 30.0 mpg)

    Knight
    14.3/ 3.6/ 4.2 (in 32.3 mpg)
    14.7/ 3.7/ 4.6 (in 32.3 mpg... weird that his per game average is exactly the same)



    In almost all cases, scoring was understated... probably because rookies don't shoot as frequently before they establish confidence and teammate trust, etc. Rebounding seems to vary either way, but is usually very close. Assists tend to be understated too.

    Overall:
    Average rookie scoring per 36 from this set: 12.1
    Average career scoring per 36 from this set: 13.2

    Average rookie rebounds per 36: 6.6
    Average career rebounds per 36: 6.5

    Average rookie assists per 36: 2.1
    Average career assists per 36: 2.3


    If you take a rookie's per 36 stats, it is therefore reasonable to assume that they will maintain them throughout their career and that they will be scalable.
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  13. lapiston

    lapiston Team Captain

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    The team is much better but just who plays in crunch time is a big problem. I know Maxiel made some blocks against Atlanta, but his offense is just not good enough for crunch time. Knight is too erratic for crunch time. Against the Hawks, 2 threes missed, I believe, and a very bad turnover with about a minute left (he got stripped of the ball as he drove). Neither Knight nor Monroe want to be the guy in crunch time and that pair often pass it to each other to get nothing. Then, they go to Tay (who else) and the Taysolation is not the way to go too often. The team scored 11 points in the entire quarter and I think only a Stuckey hoop down low in the last 5 minutes. You can't win many NBA games with that kind of production.

    So who should play in crunch time? The players that are playing well recently. Daye, CV, Drummond and Bynum for sure. The 5th spot would be Monroe or Stuckey or Tay.
  14. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    Tay. You really want Monroe or Drummond trying to defend a SF? Stuckey screws up the floor spacing. Personally I think you go with: Bynum, Daye, Tay, Drummond, Monroe (for offense) and Max (for defense). But the Org is hell bent on having Knight, Stuckey, Tay and Monroe on the floor; I can almost stomach that if Drummond is the 5th player.
  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I noticed that on Synergy Sports, they show that Knight and Bynum both allow 0.81 points per shot on plays where they are the defender. You can't compare them to non guards really. These guys rank as tops on the team, but like I said, it measures points per shot attempt, so PG's have a built in advantage b/c they have help if their man goes to the bucket.

    It is just interesting that they are the same since they both play about the same balance of PG first with a little SG. Arguably Knight is doing it against starters while Will is doing it mostly against bench players, so it's advantage Knight judging on this alone. Also, Will has Drummond behind him while Knight doesn't typically, so more advantage Knight.


    Just to give the rest of the color from my search:
    SG: Singler rates way better than Stuckey
    SF: Daye rates slightly ahead of Tay... probably not enough to overcome the bench advantages. Daye's offensive ranking obviously blows Tay away due to the ludicrous stats so far.
    PF: Maxiell ranks above CV. However, CV's offense is #33 in the league while JM's is 219
    C: Monroe ranks the same as JMax and slightly ahead of Drummond. Possible explanation for Drum not leading them is all the other guys he's defending out there with CV outside the arc? Drummond's offense also dominates by a massive margin due to his efficiency.


    The reason the defensive stats are somewhat interesting is that they look at every single play where the guy is involved and they break it down by category:
    e.g.
    Isolation
    Spot up
    Post up
    P&R- man
    P&R- player
    Offensive rebound
    Hand off
    Other (I may be forgetting some)

    For each of these categories, they show the batting average of the offensive player and link to video for each example of it.

    I haven't viewed enough of these to know if I trust their categorizations. Also, I don't know how they handle help defense. For example, would Dre's block of another guy's man have shown up in his stats? What if he wouldn't have blocked it and it would have gone in? I'll have to dig into their methodology before I vouch for any of it.
  16. Lee356

    Lee356 All-Star

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    Scoring defense. What percent of the time do you sag off your assignment to help out on the interior D. What percent of the time does the opposing team decide to send a play within 7 feet of you, other than for purposes of swinging the ball around the perimeter. What percent of the time are you assigned to a stronger offensive player vs. your assumed assignment.

    Obviously, then there is the team stuff. Defensive rebounding percentage when you are on vs. off the floor. FG % on vs. off given up.

    Anyway, back to the individual stuff. If you are a point guard who often is asked to guard one of the leagues best scoring shooting guards, and even then the ball is seldom passed to those shooting guards for purposes of even trying to score on you - you are a pretty darn good defender. In addition, if you spend a great deal of your time shoring up the interior D, as opposed to sticking to that top scorer, hey, you are really really good. If you can stay away from this top scorer to help inside, shoot out to him at the last minute if they try to pass the ball to him and still stop him from scoring - to the point the opposing team does not even try that route - you are pretty much the best defender around.
  17. kpaav

    kpaav Team Captain Forum Donor

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    Cool. I agree with you 100%. I suppose it is more of a support for Bynum over the rest of the sorry shooting point guards we have than a satisfaction of Bynum being the PG of the future. Joe needs to quit drafting guards who can't shoot and dribble wouldn't you say? Knight, Stuckey, etc.
  18. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Knight can shoot. He's our best 3P shooter.
  19. copper

    copper Bench Warmer

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    knight can shoot, and he a capable scorer, its his decision making that is in question in my mind. Once he decides to score he simply doesnt see anything else. Also as a pg he doesnt have a solid grasp on entry passes and selecting angles to get the ball to teammates in best possible situations.
  20. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    That being said, the 19-year-old Knight is already doing those things better than the 26-year-old Stuckey.

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