Discussion in 'February 2009' started by Dlev59, Feb 6, 2009.
Matt Bonner might be the best person, but I doubt he is the best player. lol
Maybe he's not, but holy crap is he having a great year!
Matt Bonner of the San Antonio Spurs, NBA player stats and data from 82games.com
He takes 81% jump shots and has an eFG of .678. If AI had that % on his jump shots and did everything else the same, his scoring average would increase by 6 ppg and he'd be 3rd in the NBA right now, even with limited shots.
The Spurs are +191 with him on the court this year and they are actually down without him at -21. Can you believe that without Matt Bonner, the Spurs have been a loser this year? The team eFG jumps from 49% without him to 54% with him.
They win 75% of the stints with him on the floor vs. only 67% for Duncan.
The only reason that I mention all this is because Matt Bonner is the Spurs version of Amir Johnson. He starts most games, yet he only averages 23 minutes per game. Despite his limited playing time, he has the highest foul rate on the team and almost leads in total fouls. Like Amir, Bonner also leads his team in FG% and has the highest offensive rebounding rate on their team behind Duncan. He also blocks more shots that you would imagine, with the 3rd highest block rate on the Spurs.
Bonner didn't start in the league until he was 24 years old, which is almost 7 years older than Amir when he was drafted. Even though Bonner got a late start, it took him 5 more years + the trust of a confident veteran coach to finally blossom. Starting for the Spurs is no small accomplishment. We're talking about a guy who averaged 4 ppg and committed a foul every 8 minutes last year.
One more tidbit: When Matt Bonner scores 10 points or more, the Spurs are 17-2.
Matt Bonner is not the Spurs version of Amir Johnson.
Matt Bonner is one of the most serious guys in the NBA. He treats this like the well paid career it is. This isn't playtime, or street ball for him.
Bonner is a tireless professional. I wasn't kidding when I said he was a good person. He is what we all believe TaShawn Prince is, with substantially less raw talent.
Bonner is a very cerebral player with an excellent jumpshot.
Bonner thriving beside Duncan
MC puts AJ in and takes him out. But who coaches AJ?
Has MC thought about Amir's personality and ways to get the best performance out of him? We are talking about a 21 year old with no college experience vs. Popovich having to go outside the normal course to get the most out of a mature player.
If Joe D would have brought Bonner in during the off season, would Bonner have averaged more than 5 minutes per game with us? Would MC have the confidence to start him and keep starting him after a few 0 point performances?
Like i said before these detailed statistics change for what variables you use in the formula. For example in 82games.com bonner ranked 5th in spurs team.
BTW I like amir johnson but i like maxiel more. Max has to start instead of amir.
Yeah, and he's white too. I didn't mean that they were identical. But there are lot of similarities.
I didn't realize that Amir wasn't taking his job seriously btw. I was going off the assumption that he's a gym rat.
He actually sounds like a pretty good guy too.
By the way, I'm really not claiming he's the best player in the NBA. I'm just pointing him out as somebody who is underrated, but who is really helping is team win.
He's added nothing to his game since last year. Hell, he's barely even added any bulk since he came into the league.
I know the stats suggest something magical with the kid, but if you watch him, he's just a scrub. We all start to buy into the mythology of Joe Dumars, and assume as Ben and Tay and CB and Rip and Memo and Mike James and Dice and even Sheed were steals, that Amir has to be a steal.
But just as I got over my Alex Acker man love, a guy who hasn't even had a chance to fail yet, I think it is time, after what must be nearly 2,000 minutes, to accept that Amir is a 15 MPG role player on a .500 team.
Micro, I don't understand the love affair many seem to have with Amir. Has he made some nice plays? Yes. But so do most NBA players. He was drafted at the end of the second round. Is he better than that? Yes, he probably could go in the high 20s first round. Is he the answer to our aging bigs? Doubtful. I root for him but do not have the high expectations of many. I sometimes even wonder about how far Stuckey will go and I have been high on him.
Just like anybody else on the Pistons. I understand that some ppl take the whole "i love Amir" thing to far. He is not an all star, should not even be a starter (but who else do the Pistons have) but i do think he should get consistent playing time because he brings more to the floor then just fouls.
Someone posted this on another board (DBB):
We are loosing now anyway, how bad can it be to just play Amir/Max/Arron and give them consistent 15-20 min per game.
Everyone talks about Amir's fouling resulting in free throws (because of the bonus). But same can be said because Sheed hardly ever blocks out, guards are penetrating at will because our guard defence sucks, etc.
Basketball is still a teamsport and the Pistons right now are not playing as a team and all players are to blame for that.
I'd just like to hear some explanations for why the stats are so deceiving in this one case.
The explanation for Acker's stats are clear. He's only played 20 minutes this year. I'd predict that we won't score 130 points per game if we play him more.
Give me any misleading stat and I'll be glad to explain it away for you.
I actually liked the bonus argument by Cloud, because it was attempting to explain why the stats could be off. It made sense in a logical way.
Here are just some possibilities off the top of my head:
Amir is only good in limited minutes and his performance drops off after 20 minutes due to fatigue.
Amir only plays in the first and 3rd quarters when the other coach hasn't yet made adjustments to totally obliterate MC's gameplan.
Amir caught other teams by surprise earlier in the season and now that they are factoring him into their gameplan, his performance is starting to wane.
Or... Small ball is the real stat killer and Amir was never involved in it. So, his +/- is only as good as the other guys if you exclude their small ball time.
You see what I'm saying? If you are going to disagree, it would be nice to hear a hypothesis at least for why the data is skewed. Then, we can look to see if that fits. In the 3rd example, we could see if his +/- is dropping off as the season progresses. It may have, it may not have. I don't know.
But declaring things like "the guy is a scrub" and "he'll be out of the league in 4 years" based on how much you personally observed him sucking doesn't really convince me.
If I bought every argument like that, then I'd believe that AI is a cancer, Amar'e has no game without Steve Nash, Chris Bosh is injury prone, Billups was holding us back, and MC can coach.
These are all opinions that rational people have formed based on their careful observations.
Sometimes if you go only with what you observe, you can be led astray. All the data in the world couldn't convince people that the sun was at the center of the solar system. What they saw was the sun going up and the sun going down. It was obvious to them that the sun was orbiting the Earth.
So you feel that your Amir statistics are as straightforward as whether an accident occurred, and whether or not excessive speed was involved?
I also commented later on in that same thread that many of my theories were going to be quite difficult to prove in a setting that was high in both external and internal validity. Do you honestly feel you've worked your way around that as well? Of course not. So let's just agree to disagree and move on.
At the same time TaS, I know when Amir isn't boxing anyone out during a possession in which the opponent gets an offensive rebound. I know when he misses a rotation, because I can see it right in front of my face. Thanks to TiVo, I can even LeeWind (copyright pending:p) over and over again to double check my original impression. I don't need to crunch numbers for that, because I know full well in basketball those numbers are equally influenced by 9 other guys. Sometimes you have to simply consider what the guy did or didn't physically do.
Are you sure about that?
I found it peculiar that you reduced the other players fouls to one every quarter from 13 minutes. Consequently, you upgrade Amir's less than a quarter average of 2.2 to a full quarter of only 2 fouls, which even more miraculously ends up becoming a difference of only 1 at the end of the day. I'm apparently not supposed to notice how this coincidentally helps you come to your initial estimation, but unfortunately I see things like this so often on a daily basis that my mind starts considering the variables left out of the equation rather than the destination that the author is attempting to reach.
I've read many of your reports on our teams percentage of time playing "smallball". Whose definition of smallball? Mine, yours, or Michael Curry's? Seeing as how those same statistics have been used by others to insinuate that the coach is a liar, I think it was a question that should have been answered before the stats were ever broken out. Did I miss it? Did you calculate listed heights and weights of our current starting 5 and weigh it against every other lineup when you developed your baseline? What was the average player weight difference between the supposed smallball lineup, the baseline lineup, and the "BigBall" lineup that we were supposedly playing "X" percent of the time.
That could all possibly be summed up by simply stating that each and every definition is subjective, but hey, no one seemed eager to point this out when those stats were used to promote the coach as disingenuous.
Somewhere back there was a mention of Amir not being a defensive rebounding liability due to both teams being even in rebounds. Offensive or defensive? What was the second chance point discrepancy? Isn't that something to consider? Does Amir and Maxiell getting offensive rebounds make up for them giving up offensive rebounds on the other end of the floor in the context of a conversation concerning their effectiveness on defense?
Of course not. That's why I can't get behind listing a rebound total and pointing to the lack of disparity as any sort of evidence to the contrary.
I understand what you are trying to do, but honestly, for this kid, I really don't feel like wasting time thinking too much about it.
I'll even take the route professor touched on some days back, and be completely honest with you and also myself-
I just don't like this kid anymore. I'm sick of the hype. I'm tired of the crap.
Do I think he's the worst player in the NBA? Far from it. Not too long ago I was talking to roscoe in one of these threads and I think I clearly pointed out that I still think his upside is better than anything we can get from Kwame Brown, even though I do feel that Kwame is better at this moment in time;nevertheless, I stated in that very thread that due to this upside, I would keep trying to develop him for as long as possible.
But now, I find the efforts of the worldwide coalition of TeamAmir so tiring that I can't help but find myself firmly entrenched [strike]in the tundra[/strike] in their polar opposite.
If they didn't exist, he'd be a young kid with a whole lot to learn. Because they do, he's the most pitiful scrub I've ever laid my eyes on, and I would rather listen to my own death rattle while I was ablaze and drowning in razor blade filled waters under 10 feet of ice than see him walk onto another NBA court ever again.
Before this season even got kicked off I pointed out that it isn't simply enough for these fans to see their players get playing time, they want to see their players get "x" amount of PT, and it needs to be during certain times. This statement was vigorously refuted,yet, take a good look around..and here we are.
It's driving me crazy. Every where I look, every time I listen to fellow fans go at it. So much love for this kid who hasn't done much of anything tangible besides stink it up much of the time. Love that is based on things that despite your well intentioned attempts we both know cannot be substantiated to any sort of degree that cannot be explained away by equally unsubstantiated rhetoric from the other camp.
It's not you. It's me. Don't try to save me. I'm too far gone.
TEAM AMIR UNITE!
Yea, Chan's one of us too.
Project "Amir" is almost done. He'll be out of the league in less than 3 years....:fingerscr
less than 3? Nah. An athletic 6-10 (ish) 21 year old that isn't a dummy off-the-court and gives effort on-the-court will get many decent chances before teams give up on him totally.
Besides he's under contract until the end of next season. Even if he DNP-CD'ed for the next 1.5 years, a few teams would throw him a minimum contract. Yet, Amir is our starter.
I don't think he's this amazing player/talent/etc. He's not even close to an "all-star in the making". But, there is a place in the league for players who come in and play with all-out hustle (though recklessly at times). Through his (Brief) career, he has had a very positive impact on the defensive end of the floor consistently. He has zero post-game, but he can finish plays and occasionally knock down a jumper.
The Anti-AJ crew point to fouls immediately when his name is brought up, but they're the same people that complain when we're giving up a layup line while Dice and Sheed duck out of the way so they can stay on the floor. Amir commits his fair share of dumb fouls, but he also commits more "No Free Chili" fouls than anyone on the team.
It's funny, the way people feel about "Team Amir" is the way i feel about "Team AI". Luckily, i don't have to wait 2 years for that to be over, and i'm never going to have to eat crow when AI never wins a championship. Amir on the other hand still has a chance to make an impact in this league. I don't think he's going to go Darko.
Point is everybody has their "guy". And the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.
If this guy can play 10 years in the league, Amir should be good for at LEAST 5.
wait! you guys breakin' up?
Cloud, what's so bad about having a discussion about this? I didn't really realize I was trying to converse with someone who would rather "listen to (his) own death rattle while (he) was ablaze and drowning in razor blade filled waters under 10 feet of ice" than see Amir step foot on a court. I just figured, hey, a forum, that might be a good place to discuss the Pistons.
This place would be really dull if everyone just stated who they think is wonderful and who is scrubs and stuck to it.
You are so awesome.
That's kinda how I feel about Michael Curry right now.
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