Discussion in 'February 2009' started by Dlev59, Feb 6, 2009.
Something i think proves the point about the Amir's rebounding or lack of being largely irrelevant.
Posted by Tashawn in the CHI thread.
Kinda kills the theory that the young bigs lack of rebounds kills us or that Dyess' key us to wins.
Anyone care to spin this in a "But Amir sucks" way ?
C'mon people, nothin' to worry about here, let's keep it moving. These guys are gonna get a nice break, rest up and overcome, "some heartbreaks and build an elite team in this league."
You ould see by the end of the 2nd quarter that DET was going to lose. ATL had seen what they needed to see and knew how and where to attack from.
DET's first offensive possession of the game and Sheed posted on the left block with Josh Smith on him about 8' from the hoop. Instead of giving him the ball with about 13-14 seconds left on the clock and make ATL have to guard him, AI decided to dribble around and periodically dip his foot inside the 3pt line like someone getting ready to jump in a cold pool before passing the ball to Stuckey who did the same thing while Sheed switched sides of the floor and they got him the ball with 2 seconds left on the clock 20' feet from the hoop.
Another winning play was late in the second quarter, I think, where DET didn't do anything of significance until there were maybe 10 seconds left on the shot clock and Sheed came over to set a screen for Rip. The Hawks switched on the screen and had Flip Murray guarding Sheed on the right block. This would be great except Rip decided to pick up his dribble and had no angle to make the pass. Rip finally passed the ball to Sheed taking him out near the 3 pt line where he bobbled the pass and threw it back to Rip for a 24 second violation. Deeetroit Basketball!!!
AI & Rip took 3 less shots than Johnson, Bibby and Flip Murray. Add Hot Rod to AI & Rip and that's 47 shots and 54 points for the Pistons engine to 39 shots and 55 for the Hawks threesome.
Like I said no problems here. AI's a superstar, Rip should have been an All Star and Stuckey is going to be better than both of them. All I know is that the All-NBA team is going to have to go small to accommodate the talent this Piston team has accumulated.
I guess maybe Amir is learning the defensive strategies from our veterans? That style of defense seems to get them on the floor in crunch time while Amir's aggressive hard fouls and body banging get him the pine. I remember quite a few times he stepped out on both Smith and Horford and forced them into tuff shots. That's all you can ask him to do?
You want to know why people kill us with points in the paint and why we have a hard time stopping people??
Our starting PF had 4 fouls in 20 minutes ~ Could have played 30 minutes before fouling out.
The rest of the team:
Prince - 1 foul in 38 min ~ Could have played 4.75 GAMES before fouling out
Wallace - 0 fouls in 25 min ~ No need for math here
Max - 2 fouls in 17 mins ~ Could have played the whole game before fouling out
Dice - 1 fouls in 28 mins ~ Could have played 3.5 GAMES before fouling out
You can't take them with you Fellas!!!
Way too much free chili when Amir is out. Of course we are going to get beat up in the paint if there is no consequence for going in there. You call him a foul machine but except for the guards reaching as the get blown by; nobody is using their fouls and protecting our paint. It's a free-for-all for our opponent.
So with this highlighted statement you want him to step out on the double team AND get the rebound? Do any of our other bigs do this?? I have seen him do it numerous times and if you haven't, you need to pay closer attention. Do we have any other bigs that can apply a double team quick enough to have any effect let alone recover and rebound too??
Amir does a fairly good job at boxing out. The problem is that he is typically the only Piston in the paint to rebound against 4 other guys.
Listen; I am not saying that Amir is an all-star (yet) but the kid is only 21 years old. He is only averaging 17 mins a game and has an Eff rating of +8.
Horford who has college experience, is a year older and is playing twice as many minutes has an Eff rating of +17.
Johnson is three years older and has been playing a minimum of 27 mins a game since he came in the league has an Eff rating of +17.
It will take time for him to develop but the only way for that to happen is for him to get on the floor. So I agree with you; get him on the floor for every stinkin minute possible and coach him.
Can't wait to see how this gets spun.
I'm pretty sure that Curry is reluctantly playing Amir based on a directive by Dumars.
Think about it. Amir was named a starter out of the blue. MC replaced him and criticized him, only to have Amir pop back into the starting rotation with the guaranty that he would start for the rest of the year.
That would be normal if MC seemed pleased with him, but he really doesn't. Except for the starter label, Amir hasn't really had that much playing time this year. He's actually behind Afflalo and Maxiell in total minutes. MC takes Amir out of the game to protect him from foul trouble like he's the most valuable player in the world... only to not put him back in the game later. The reason this happens is that MC has a justification for taking him out, which he gladly uses.
I'm sure that Stuckey has similar backing from Dumars, and thank goodness.
We wonder why Joe went with the coach with no resume... this is why. Joe knows that any real coach is going to demand full control of the lineup and will instictively shun development in favor of short term success, because it makes the coach look better.
LB ignored youth development in exchange for short term goals and it worked beautifully. LB was willing to sacrifice regular season wins to develop the play of his vets, and that also proved to be a great strategy.
Flip ignored development of both the youth and the vets in exchange for regular season success. It worked great and couldn't get us over the hump in the post season.
MC was brought in so that the youth could be developed. JD knew that he was going to shake up our core and that this year was likely to be a slight step back. He traded CB after only 2 games afterall. MC is now hitting the point where he is fearing for his own reputation. JD didn't think that MC's coaching would be so bad that we wouldn't be able to develop the youth and eat our cake too. The retooling year is turning into a rebuilding project.
Hey Ernie, here's a tip that will make watching our guards draining the shot clock while putting on dribbling exhibitions out by the 3-pt line more enjoyable.
...turn down the sound on your television and pop in a copy of "Sweet Georgia Brown" in your stereo.
...man, I fall for that "bucket of confetti" gag every time!!!
Hell of a first post, and nice username.
They use a 7 man rotation?
Here is what I was thinking when I saw that last night.
By going for 2 points here, we were basically relying on ATL missing both free throws after the next foul. Let's be generous and say that our odds of getting this 2 point basket to fall in the first place was .500.
If we assume that we are going to foul an 80% free throw shooter, then that means the odds of them missing both is 1 in 25. Then, the odds of us making a 3 pointer to tie is about .333. Then, the odds of us winning in overtime is .500. So, following this strategy, our odds of winning the game = .500 x .040 x .333 x .500 = .00333, or 1 in 303.
So, this strategy would pay off about once every 303 tries.
If we go the 3 point route instead, then there are 3 ways that we can win. We can hit the 3 and either hope they miss a free throw or hit another 3 after they make both. Here is an attempt to map out these possibilities.
Scenarios for victory:
1) We hit 3, foul ATL, they miss both FT's, we hit 2 to tie, win in OT
2) We hit 3, foul ATL, they miss both FT's, we hit 3 to win in reg.
3) We hit 3, foul ATL, they miss 1 FT, we hit 3 to tie, win in OT
1) .333 x .040 x .500 x .500 = .0033
2) .333 x .040 x .333 = .0044
3) .333 x .360 x .333 x .500 = .0198
Add them all up, and you get .0275. This strategy would pay off once in every 36 tries.
The strategy we pursued was 10 times worse than going for a 3 pointer.
Here is what I was thinking when I read this (very persuasive and reasonable) analysis:
man, our odds of pulling that game out were slim .... even going for a 3. i had no idea. i think my heart tends to assume, in those situations, that the odds are more like 1 in 5 or even 1 in 10, but 1 in 36??!!! wow
Dumb nonetheless and why commit them if you know you'll get pulled after four? If that's the rule (and it as been enforced pretty consistently), why knock yourself out of the game with inconsequential fouls?
OK. Amir lovers - is 3 rebs per 20 min enough for you? How many offensive rebs opponents got because of amir in defensive rebounding is invisible?
And rebuild around Amir Popcorn Muscles Andre 3000 Johnson? LOL. LOL.
When players tend to suck, you cut them and keep freaking looking around for talent. Joe IS telling his coaches to play Amir. And to think many posters crucified Flip Saunders for the "he's not communicating on the floor" line? Flip knows. He's coached long enough to know that someone blows.
And the "they're tired excuse" is just that. It's tired. Sure we can't play guys 48 minutes per game, but quit acting like they are a bunch of 50 year old alcoholics sitting around their couch all day. And you know what, EVERY PLAYER that has ever play decent minutes has hit a wall. Nobody is fresh all the time! When they are not playing or practicing, they are getting pampered (not to mention Arnie Kander is a part of the staff) Last year the Big 3, headlined by Paul Pierce and his 60 percent body fat, played HEAVY minutes all season long, and actually MORE against Lebron James. All of those guys are 30 plus.
Hmmm, now there would be an interesting stat. They have a plus minus for points, but it would be very cool to have a plus minus for rebounds / assists / 3 pointers.
There for a second I thought you were looking for the body fat +/-.
I would very much like to have a Stat Sprocket analysis that would settle the debates that have plagued/delighted us on the forum:
1. What is Amir's value?
2. Is it wrong to play Dyess and Sheed at the same time? How many minutes are they allowed to play together?
3. AI vs. Chauncey
4. Is it wrong to play small ball? How many minutes of it, if any, are permissible?
5. Which of the following two should start: Rip, Stuckey, AI? How should the 96 guard minutes be distributed among all the guards we have on the roster?
6. And, if you still have time after solving those questions for me, how can we achieve peace in the Middle East?
Oh, and this is only partly tongue in cheek, i really have wondered what stat sprocket methods would yield on some of these issues.
Me too and hopefully life will cooperate sometime soon and let it happen.
I'm pretty bummed that work and other stuff are taking so much time because these are really interesting questions to think about. Hopefully soon....
Besides the dunk stopper, the other fouls were obviously not intentional. Amir is very involved defensively. When you're trying to play active help defense, you're usually going to be attempting to make plays when you're not in perfect position. It is harder to pull off. However, for every ticky tack foul he commits doing this, he is also successfully defending a number of plays where he doesn't get a whistle.
The proof is in the pudding. The free throws he gives up count against him in his defensive points allowed. Yet the other team's scoring still suffers dramatically. The pros outweigh the cons.
And consider this. Amir's "usage" is the lowest on the team. That means that we involve him in less plays than any other player. Even so, Amir gets more production than the man he guards this year.
In terms of fouling his man, here is how Amir compares to Dyess.
Gives up 6.9 free throws on 16.5 FGA's per 48 minutes.
So, 3.45 fouls per 16.5 attempts = 21% foul rate.
Gives up 7.6 free throws on 15.7 FGA's per 48 minutes.
So, 3.8 fouls per 15.7 attempts = 24% fouls rate.
Not only does Amir foul his man less, but he also holds him to 43% shooting while Dyess holds his man to 53% shooting.
The extra fouls that Amir commits are all on help defense. The overall defensive numbers show that his help defense dramatically decreases the opponents overall shooting percentage.
i am afraid of agreeing with cloudwalker so much...i might start driving the speed limit!!!! look, our offense constantly struggles because teams pack the paint and force us into jumpers since we have no inside presence. we used to be able to cover it up with defense in the championship year, but they changed the hand-check rules and made it even more difficult.
i still don't see what everyone is so high on in regards to amir. i'm going to have to start spouting off my man-love for maxiell who is by far a better player.
btw, the play that killed this game for me was when we were down 82-75 and rip got open for a mid-range jumper along the baseline. the defender was coming out at him and jmax was completely alone and unguarded under the basket...no one within 10 feet of him. instead of passing for the "thunderdunk", rip tries to get his own and jacks up a shot that wildly misses and produces a long rebound.
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