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Important 2016-17 Pistons

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by roscoe36, Jun 17, 2016.

  1. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm an optimist. I'd like to think that the losses are getting to KCP.

    Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk
     
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  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Yeah, the limit is 0.08. So, he pulled a Stanley and stepped on the line. For his weight, he probably had the equiv of 4 beers.

    Sorry to bring stats to a drunk driving discussuon, but Ben was a .14 and Hardaway was a .17
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2017
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  3. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    What was Moose stat when he Piston himself and the arresting officer?
     
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  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Moose was only a .1

    I think he just had to pee
     
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  5. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    This is a good way to destroy any chance ANY free agent would ever consider Detroit. All of these guys have Snapchat and Twitter. They talk.

    Pope probably has a strong metabolism. I have no doubt he could drink most Normies under the table.
     
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  6. junior

    junior All-Star 5x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Can I be serious for a second?

    How $#!~%ing stupid do you have to be drive drunk?

    He's a professional athlete. He's making millions of dollars a year. How $#!~%ing difficult would it be to get a cab?

    Why would we want this kind of immaturity on the team?

    The starting point guard has no self-awareness and thinks he's the GOAT. The starting center is a man-child. The starting shooting guard is getting drunk because he has to deal with these brats and he doesn't have anyone to call to pick him up.

    Jesus, this team needs a real leader.
     
  7. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    To be clear, you're talking about Hardaway, right? :biggrin:

    I'd argue neither of them have much self-awareness. LOL

    Dre is always 5 minutes away from referring to himself in the 3rd person during postgame interviews.

    I have to admit, I have driven drunk 2 or 3 times, although for most of my life I have been a teetotaler.

    Stuff happens. You're hanging with some friends, you missed a lot of 3 pointers, you've been snorting coke off the porcelain in a nightclub bathroom, and then SHAPOW, you're doing double the speed limit in a school zone while loaded. That's life. Happens to all of us.

    I suggest someone violent. Reggie Evans type character. Then we could play better and STILL be very entertaining.


    View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D69Q7TrZT0I
     
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  8. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    We had one but couldn't afford to keep him. Steve Blake.
     
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  9. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    On the internet, I am now officially against illegal behavior. The speeding bothers me immensely as well. No reason to ever speed.
     
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  10. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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  11. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    No discipline. He's out drinking and partying on the first leg of a back to back.
     
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  12. del

    del All-Star Forum Donor

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    Think this is the statement of 2017.


    And 2016, 2015....2010...2008...
     
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  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Medium length essay on what is happening in the NBA. It's a seismic shift and we are being left behind. Hoping to focus the conversation a bit.

    I knew there was some scoring inflation in the league, but didn't realize how drastic it has been year over year on a per possession basis. This is to say, that scoring hasn't increased just due to quickening pace, but also through significant improvement in offensive efficiency. That is a key distinction. Because if there is inflation based on pace, it doesn't really affect us. Both teams in a basketball game get the same number of possessions. All that matters is which team is more efficient with the possessions they get. But if team's are getting more efficient, then we also need to get more efficient or we lose out.

    Local Data:
    2017- Pistons are allowing 104.4 points per 100 possessions. That makes our defense the 8th best in the league and the 3rd best in the East. We all scoff at that because it doesn't meet the eye test. Well, here is why it doesn't meet the eye test...

    2016- Pistons allowed only 102.6 points per 100 possessions. Our defense was better, but it was relatively worse- 13th in the league.
    2015- Pistons allowed only 103.3 points per 100 possessions. Again, our defense was better than it is this year, but it ranked 18th in the league.

    Our defense is basically maintaining its effectiveness year after year with some slight slippage, but scoring is on the rise. So, in that respect, our defense is successfully combating the increased efficiency of the other teams that we are facing.

    LEAGUE WIDE DATA: (per 100 possession basis):
    League leading defense-
    2017: SAS at 101.2
    2016: SAS at 97.2
    2015: GSW at 99.6
    2014: IND at 96.9
    2013: MEM at 97.2
    2012: CHI at 95.7

    In terms of raw points per game, it looks like this for the entire league:
    2017: 105.5
    2016: 102.7
    2015: 100.0
    2014: 101.0
    2013: 98.1
    2012: 96.3

    Some of the explanation for the raw points per game increase is pace. In 2012, the average pace was 91.3 possessions per game and this season it is up to 96.4. So, that would lead you to expect scoring to increase about 5.6%. However, it has increased by 9.6%. That means that another 4% of the increase has to be due to "real" scoring increase.

    CAUSE:

    It's really easy to pinpoint it.
    NBA teams are re-allocating their shots to take advantage of 3-pointers.

    In 2012, teams averaged 6.4 makes on 18.4 attempts. 19.2 points per game from the arc. 1.04 points per attempt. .347 shooting percentage.
    In 2017, teams are averaging 9.6 makes on 26.9 attempts! That is 28.8 points per game from the arc. 1.07 points per attempt. .357 shooting percentage.

    Forget the shooting percentage, because there is really no upward or downward trend. .347/.360/.347/.348/.353/.357 from 2012 through 2017 respectively.

    The real issue is just that teams are shooting them way more... like 46% more just in the last 5 years. That is really insane. The 3-point line has been around a long time. It's pretty interesting to look at how it has increased from the beginning. In it's first year in 1980, teams were attempting 2.8 shots. It steadily increased to 6.6 in 1990. By 2000, it was up to 13.7. By 2010, it was up to 18.1. And now in 2017 it is way up to 27.

    So, when does it end? When do teams find the optimal balance? Theoretically, that optimum occurs when the expected value of the average 3-point attempt is equal to the expected value of the average 2-point attempt (including all factors, like free throws, turnovers, expected injury rates, offensive rebounds, etc). Basically, it is so complex that it will never be perfectly calculated.


    How close are we to the optimal balance? I would argue that we are pretty much at the optimal point right now with current NBA personnel.

    Reasoning:
    In 2012, the league averaged 0.96 points per 2-point attempt.
    In 2012, the league averaged 1.04 points per 3-point attempt.

    That is a pretty wide gap in expected value and the lesson that teams took away from that was to shoot more 3 pointers and less 2 pointers. So, they did exactly that.

    In 2017, the league is averaging 1.06 points per 2-point attempt.
    In 2017, the league is averaging 1.07 points per 3-point attempt.

    Almost perfect parity. If teams press and take more 3's, it is reasonable to assume that the marginal utility will drop and 2 pointers will become the better value. The really interesting outcome here is that with increased 3-point attacks, the floor is getting more spread and it is opening up room for more efficient 2-point attempts. More room to drive. Less double teams.

    Here is where the Warriors have put themselves:
    1.15 points per 3-point attempt
    1.11 points per 2-point attempt

    And they have the 2nd best defense.

    They should actually be shooting more 3-pointers, which is scary to think



    I don't think that I need to thoroughly prove out here that the Pistons are not keeping up with the trend. While our defense is thwarting our opponents' improved technology in warfare, our offense is stuck in the past.

    But here are my concluding thoughts

    The cure for the Pistons is not to take more 3-pointers. Why? Because we have already achieved perfect parity ourselves with this roster. We average 0.97 points per 2-point attempt and we average 0.98 points per 3-point attempt. That means that if we force more 3's, the expected value will drop below our 2-point attempts (unless we unlock the magical floor spacing synergies).

    It's either a roster issue or a coaching issue. The only solutions are to bring in better 3-point shooters so that we can get our EV up in the 1.06+ range or to bring in a coach who can design an offense to get these players better looks. Or of course, both could be at fault. I'm leaning heavier toward personnel after watching Leuer, Johnson, Morris, and Smith clang away.

    If we give up KCP which is everyone's knee jerk reaction, we will surely slip on defense. And KCP is averaging a terrific 1.09 points per 3-point attempt. We need more KCPs.

    We need to find more 3 and D guys. If we try to upgrade our offense and get any worse on D, we are not on the right path. Middleton would have been perfect for this new NBA. The problem is that everyone is on the hunt for these guys now. Traditional centers are getting less important as the game is moving out away from the basket. With a spread offense and defense, I can buy the argument that the value of a true drive deterring center could be at an all time high (guys like Gobert). If there was a guy like Gobert who could also hit 3 pointers, that would be the true unicorn. Porzingas/ Maker are potentially in that style. What we hoped Darko could be would be the prototype. Drummond could fit this new scheme as the guy who sucks up an abnormally high number of rebounds when the rest of the team is on the arc... but his achilles heel with the FTs is unfortunate.
     
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  14. Nemo

    Nemo Over 60 Club Forum Donor

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    Where's Cloudwalker when you need him.
     
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  15. Nemo

    Nemo Over 60 Club Forum Donor

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    I'm afraid the Pistons are closer to Philly and the Magic............
    Than they are to being a serious playoff team.............

    The Locker room is actually closer to being these guys..........
    My guess is the girl here is the toughest on this gang............

    [​IMG]

    Than it is to being like a historic San Antonio team............
     
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  16. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 5x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Awesome work, @TaS@TaS.
     
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  17. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Larry Brown would have gotten slaughtered in today's NBA.
     
  18. Nemo

    Nemo Over 60 Club Forum Donor

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    You should start your coaching career at U of D.
    Next, would be the coaching position of the Pistons.
    I expect the Pistons GM to be looking soon.
     
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  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    SVG wants a modern 3 point attack and a good defense. That was his business plan. He seems like the right coach and President of bball ops to get us there. He has just struck out.

    Maybe he needs another at bat. I'm honestly on the fence.
     
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  20. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    You don't make a move after you lose your PG for half the season and he comes back a shadow of his former self.

    SVG is the coach, not an Oracle. He can't predict the injury future of the team.

    More distressing is SJ and Dre going backwards.

    I'm not a big SVG fan. I can learn to love any coach that gets my team wins.
     

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